Bottom set TT in 3 bet 3 way flop

[CaseS87]

UTG is 19/10/1.65
SB is 22/8.6/1.4

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $69.35
CO: $46.65
Hero: $57.65
SB: $83.45
BB: $78.20

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $5.5</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($17, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $17</font>, UTG folds, Hero ???

[Sir Winalot]

I 3-bet preflop. As played preflop I'm not so sure. IMO SB range is pretty much QQ+, AK here. You're ahead of AA and AK but I doubt you get a call from AK if you push and AA may fold sometimes too. This is WA/WB and I push or fold, probably fold&gt;push, but I doubt I'd get away from this on the table.

[CaseS87]

3 betting TT against this particular opponenent is practically suicidal IMO.

[drunkmonk]

The $17 might just be a c-bet. I'd push and pray he's got AA, AK, or JJ.

[uminchu]

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet preflop. As played preflop I'm not so sure. IMO SB range is pretty much QQ+, AK here. You're ahead of AA and AK but I doubt you get a call from AK if you push and AA may fold sometimes too. This is WA/WB and I push or fold, probably fold&gt;push, but I doubt I'd get away from this on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think you have to three bet here, especially with your read, as played though i think i push but it sucks, and i think that AK will def call a push here but this spot just sucks all around

[AJGibson]

pf spot on, on the flop a push is your best option.

[pokerchap]

fold PF. push flop, it is the only option.

[CaseS87]

[ QUOTE ]
fold PF. push flop, it is the only option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would I fold preflop?

[tomonbass]

Folding pf looks good to me too ...

The reason being that you are going to have a difficult decision on most flops considering the pf action...

It looks like 10 10 is beat pf from the action... a ep raise a reraise after an ep raise and a caller... then the orginal raiser calling... and If you also consider your stats you can see that these are two pretty solid opponents one of them has a bigger pocket pair than you if not both... in fact the best you could hope for would be one overpair and 2 overcards....

So if you call what kind of flop will you like...

all undercards is ideal for tens but how unlikely is it that you wont be beaten by a bigger pair anyway...

The current flop which you will now probably be going broke In to a bigger set....

the only flop that really suits you is two low cards and a 10 giving you top set.....

To me the easiest way to play poker is to make good choices early in the hand which will make your future choices easier to make...

Like drawing to an OESD with 2 flush cards out Id rather fold than draw to that hand cos if I hit my straight with the flush card Im in a tough spot if facing heat... same applys here youve made a tough choice preflop leading to an even tougher choice on the flop....

Folding pf in this spot saves your money for a better spot and prevents you going potentially broke to a flop like this.. and it also makes your whole thought process much easier and clearer and easier....

As played its a push or fold decision on the flop to which Id probably push in the heat of the moment... but fold here in heinsite when the heats off....

I just think sometimes to improve our play we should stop and think about what is happening before the action gets to us or comes back round to us before making a quick choice and going with the gut feeling....

I had two hands today where I was about to just stick my stack in without thinking about it but (somehow) managed to stop myself and have a little think about what just happened in front of me and as it turned out made some good decisions based on what I saw and comprehenended...

I think we all should try taking a little more time over our choices at the table... we have a time bar online that we are entilted to use prehaps it should be used a little more often when making choices... but that could ne the subject of a different thread...

my 2 cents Tom /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[CaseS87]

wel first of all when i made these pf calls i made them with the intention of insta mucking if i missed a set. but getting like 15-1 on stack sizes, and either one or both have overpairs, i think it would be a terrible laydown preflop.

[tomonbass]

does anyone know the odds of flopping TOP set... which is really the only flop you want to see IMO...

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
does anyone know the odds of flopping TOP set... which is really the only flop you want to see IMO...

[/ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, don't be a nit and worry about set over set the odds are like 100:1.

If Heros hand was 22, I'd play in the same way. You have the implied odds to hit your set and bust him,

Villains reraising range will also include AK, maybe AQs and others, it's not just over pairs here.

Both calls pf by hero are the best available play, folding would be pretty terrible.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
fold PF. push flop, it is the only option.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fold pf, what the hell?! And I think it's a little closer than that on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
3 betting TT against this particular opponenent is practically suicidal IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Woot? Position with TT against a supposed TAG (19/10/1.65). I raise this up.

[AJGibson]

tomonbass,

Your whole line screams "nit", stop waiting for the nuts and realise that poker is gambling. Get chips in when you are offered favorible implied or direct odds, and make plays where your expectation is positive against your opponents range.

[ QUOTE ]
The current flop which you will now probably be going broke In to a bigger set....

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're seeing monsters, you should risk going broke with sets pretty much all the time at this level.

Realise that you have to lose sometimes and look to win over the long run.

[ QUOTE ]
I had two hands today where I was about to just stick my stack in without thinking about it but (somehow) managed to stop myself and have a little think about what just happened in front of me and as it turned out made some good decisions based on what I saw and comprehenended...


[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds interesting, do you think you could post these hands, please.

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
does anyone know the odds of flopping TOP set... which is really the only flop you want to see IMO...

[/ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1, don't be a nit and worry about set over set the odds are like 100:1.

If Heros hand was 22, I'd play in the same way. You have the implied odds to hit your set and bust him,

Villains reraising range will also include AK, maybe AQs and others, it's not just over pairs here.

Both calls pf by hero are the best available play, folding would be pretty terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree... 22 would be better here because there is alot more flops which suit your deuces than there is with the tens also 22 is much easier to get away from....

Also their are two TAGs in this hand and both players have played very strongly preflop at least one of these villains has an overpair.

And this is the kind of thing I mean about going with the gut.. sure set over set is very unlikley in most situations but looking at all the action that has gone on in this hand it is certainly a probability that another set has been made here.

Its not being nitty its using the information that has been given to you from your opponents to come up with a decision that makes the hand easier for you to play out...

As it stands a rash decision has been made leading to further difficult decisions at future streets....

There is nothing wrong in folding strong hands preflop if the information tells you too...

[Everlong]

[ QUOTE ]

I had two hands today where I was about to just stick my stack in without thinking about it but (somehow) managed to stop myself and have a little think about what just happened in front of me and as it turned out made some good decisions based on what I saw and comprehenended...



[/ QUOTE ]

Your next post should be these hands. or something NSFW.

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree... 22 would be better here because there is alot more flops which suit your deuces than there is with the tens

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, you have the same chance of hitting a set with either pair. Tens are also involved in half of all possible straights and as such there are a lot of flops that will fit your TT compared to deuces. Though you are correct that deuces are esier to get away from.

[ QUOTE ]
Also their are two TAGs in this hand and both players have played very strongly preflop at least one of these villains has an overpair...
There is nothing wrong in folding strong hands preflop if the information tells you too...


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is a high chance that one has an over pair, but look at heros options when it's his turn to act:

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero ?

Calling is fine here, raising is good also, folding would be horrid.

Hero calls, SB raises to $5.5, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero ??

Hero's call is $3.75, into a pot of $11.50. With impilied odds, possibility of doubling your current £50 stack, and position for the rest of the hand, this is definitely a call, even if you knew one villian had JJ+ you would not be making a mistake by calling.

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]
tomonbass,

Your whole line screams "nit", stop waiting for the nuts and realise that poker is gambling. Get chips in when you are offered favorible implied or direct odds, and make plays where your expectation is positive against your opponents range.

[ QUOTE ]
The current flop which you will now probably be going broke In to a bigger set....

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're seeing monsters, you should risk going broke with sets pretty much all the time at this level.

Realise that you have to lose sometimes and look to win over the long run.

[ QUOTE ]
I had two hands today where I was about to just stick my stack in without thinking about it but (somehow) managed to stop myself and have a little think about what just happened in front of me and as it turned out made some good decisions based on what I saw and comprehenended...


[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds interesting, do you think you could post these hands, please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure As requested...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $20.35
Tomonbass: $23.75
CO: $26
Button: $25
SB: $56.50
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Tomonbass is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass raises to $1</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($3.1, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass bets $2.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $15</font>, Tomonbass folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in $24</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB calls all-in $9</font>.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($31.6, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $53.35)


River: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($31.6, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $53.35)


Results:
Final pot: $31.6

Here without thinking I would consider gamboling with the NFD might think my Kings are good but I didnt and looked at the action and decided to muck it....

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Tomonbass: $65.85
CO: $25
Button: $12.45
SB: $6.25
BB: $22.85

Pre-flop: (5 players) Tomonbass is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass raises to $1</font>, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $3</font>, Tomonbass calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8.35, 2 players)
Tomonbass checks, CO checks.

River: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass bets $5</font>, CO folds.
Uncalled bets: $5 returned to Tomonbass.

Results:
Final pot: $8.35


Again this is where I normally push a flop without thinking to much ... but decided to slow it down...

p.s sorry these took a while to post but convertors where down for a while....

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree... 22 would be better here because there is alot more flops which suit your deuces than there is with the tens

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, you have the same chance of hitting a set with either pair. Tens are also involved in half of all possible straights and as such there are a lot of flops that will fit your TT compared to deuces. Though you are correct that deuces are esier to get away from.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im am not saying that both pairs do not have an equal chance of flopping a set Im saying that there would be alot more suitable flops for the deuces in this situation....

And even making a straight with the 10's could still leave you in a precarious position i.e higher straights etc... our two villains ranges have to be big pairs big aces or broadway cards....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also their are two TAGs in this hand and both players have played very strongly preflop at least one of these villains has an overpair...
There is nothing wrong in folding strong hands preflop if the information tells you too...


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is a high chance that one has an over pair, but look at heros options when it's his turn to act:

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero ?

Calling is fine here, raising is good also, folding would be horrid.

Hero calls, SB raises to $5.5, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero ??

Hero's call is $3.75, into a pot of $11.50. With impilied odds, possibility of doubling your current £50 stack, and position for the rest of the hand, this is definitely a call, even if you knew one villian had JJ+ you would not be making a mistake by calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the first call is standard if you dont want to raise in that spot however I think the 2nd call is one that we can get away from if we look at whats going on in front of us....

But surley we cant take odds just as black and white... poker is a very grey game IMO where you have to consider lots of factors not just direct and implied odds (although an extreemely important aspect of the game granted)

You need to look at all the ingrediants to make a smashing cake... and here all factors IMO point to a fold theres noway your ahead at the moment and future decisions are going to be tricky from here on in....

[bozlax]

These two hands are terrible. In the first, you have a straight value-push on the flop with 2 opponents and the NFD. What on earth could you have seen, having "looked at the action" that made you think anything else? In the second, again, what do you think Villan has that should worry your two overcards + FD, especially as you have almost 3 times his stack? The way you played it, you got nothing more out of him than you would have gotten had you reraised the flop and he folded.

[Kerosity]

[ QUOTE ]
wel first of all when i made these pf calls i made them with the intention of insta mucking if i missed a set. but getting like 15-1 on stack sizes, and either one or both have overpairs, i think it would be a terrible laydown preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The preflop call was alright, assuming you knew you would get paid off if your set hit, because they were deep enough for you to get it all in, for a call that was only 10% of your stack.. so I agree with you preflop. On the Flop, a good NL400 friend of mine has gotten through my thick head: "You NEVER fold a set, You ALWAYS try to get it allin with a set." Of course there are VERY few spots you might fold it, but its very very rare. I wouldnt be suprised if your up against AK here, trying to push out a draw, and also getting value on his draw.. It doesnt exactly matter what they have here though.. regardless you should push, if the board pairs you break them all, unless you ahve set under set, and thats just unfortunate.

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
But surely we cant take odds just as black and white... poker is a very grey game IMO where you have to consider lots of factors not just direct and implied odds (although an extremely important aspect of the game granted)

[/ QUOTE ]
The key here is the positive expectation, we will win more money back than we lose in the long run. Yes most of the time we stand to lost the cost of the call, but once every 7.5 times we will hit our set and we stand to win $60. Here I think a key ingredient is the fact we have position for the rest of the hand and that will help make our decisions a lot easier.

Given that we hit our set and one of our opponents has JJ+ he will only hit an over set 8% of the time, if both of them have JJ+ (different pairs) one of them will hit an over set only 15% of the time. I'd say the odds are favorable.

Knowing the odds and making sure you try and keep them in your favor (having a positive expectation) is the key aspect of the game IMO. Playing TAG, going for the standard line is all towards this end.

This then develops to adapting the odds to the range of hands villain could be playing, which introduces hand reading skills and psychology. But the odds are still the key IMO, they just got a lot more complicated.

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
In the first, you have a straight value-push on the flop with 2 opponents and the NFD. What on earth could you have seen, having "looked at the action" that made you think anything else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Hero being offered a little better than 2:1 effectively. He has at best 9 outs, though I think it's likely that one or more of these outs are in the opponents hands, therefore call becomes unprofitable and thin profit at best. Folding here is fine if you don't like variance.

H2 is definitely a three bet on the flop.

[BukNaked36]

Poooosh.

Could be JJ c-betting or AA, AK, AQ.

If you go down set over set reload. [censored] happens.

[ATrain]

For H2, what do you do if villain re-raises flop? As played, how would you play the turn?

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]
These two hands are terrible. In the first, you have a straight value-push on the flop with 2 opponents and the NFD. What on earth could you have seen, having "looked at the action" that made you think anything else? In the second, again, what do you think Villan has that should worry your two overcards + FD, especially as you have almost 3 times his stack? The way you played it, you got nothing more out of him than you would have gotten had you reraised the flop and he folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are they terrible hands....

Everyones answer to most posts is pooooooooshh....

Why the hell is going all in..in marginal situations a good decision.... its not really poker its bingo...

All in is a terrible play IMO on most occasions...

Im marginal situations you dont want to be getting your money in... and in situations where you have a powerful hand you want to manipulate your opponent into moving all in themselves rather then pushing it in yourself....

In H1 with the KK I am behind most definatly probably to a set or a flush or even both.. so its unlikey I have 9 outs... even if I do have 9 clean outs an opponent with a probable set given the action before has just about the same odds to improve to a full house...

Getting all in here would of been a silly decision since all your questions have been answered with the action that has gone before you...

H2 what do I acheive by 3 betting all in.. probably a fold which isnt really that great as I lose an opportunity to prehaps extract more money from my opponent if I make a flush.... on the flip side I could get called by anything from 1 pair to a set and Im once again looking at putting alot of money at risk in a marginal coinflip situation... Its all good if you hit... but it only happens on occasion and besides as mentioned yesterday in another thread (Vamm posted "when will I ever learn") pushing with a FD is such an obvious play and if people can pick it up at this level youll get eaten alive going up...IMO.

I suggest that instead of pushing more in marginal situations (TPTK Overpairs Decent Draws) we prehaps try to play a bit of poker on the future streets and try to get our opponents to do what we want them to do...

And wait for our opponents to pooooosh Instead of doing the pushing ourselves.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Hero being offered a little better than 2:1 effectively.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what are the odds of completing a four-flush with 2 cards to come?

[ QUOTE ]
He has at best 9 outs, though I think it's likely that one or more of these outs are in the opponents hands, therefore call becomes unprofitable and thin profit at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, AT BEST Hero is ahead[/nit]. Next best, he's got 14 outs against a mentally-deficient 42[/more nit]. Next after that is 11 outs against a bare ace. THEN we get to hands that he's ONLY got 9 outs against.

(By the way, once again, what're the odds of making a 9-out draw with 2 cards to come?)

fwiw, worrying that some of your outs are in Villans' hands isn't the way to count your outs. Unless you have a read that one of your Villans will only play this way with a made flush on this flop, you give yourself credit for at least 9 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here is fine if you don't like variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true.

And, to tom: I agree that too many suggestions in this forum consist of "pooooooosh", but in this case, knowing the odds of making your best draw and comparing that to the portion of the money you're putting in on the flop makes a push "playing poker."

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]


fwiw, worrying that some of your outs are in Villans' hands isn't the way to count your outs. Unless you have a read that one of your Villans will only play this way with a made flush on this flop, you give yourself credit for at least 9 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here is fine if you don't like variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true.

And, to tom: I agree that too many suggestions in this forum consist of "pooooooosh", but in this case, knowing the odds of making your best draw and comparing that to the portion of the money you're putting in on the flop makes a push "playing poker."

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on the most part that you shouldnt worry about your outs being in you opponents hands.... however sometimes it just so obvious that they are and you should really factor this into your decision... if you dont then I think you are making an error....

In my first hand after the flop I raise which suggests my hand isvery strong....

I get reraised which says screw your hand mines way better...

Then then we are again raised which says screw both your hands Im even better... which can only suggest that someone has a made flush... certainly a set....

Which changes our odds significantly....

Also I think pushing our higher +EV harder than our lower +EV opportunitys makes for better poker....

Rather than pushing all the marginal +EV to the hilt...

[matrix]

fold pf???? wtf???????????????

by the time the action gets to you on the flop it's 2way NOT 3-way.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding pf looks good to me too ...

The reason being that you are going to have a difficult decision

[/ QUOTE ]

eh???

sometimes in pokah you are faced with difficult decisions, folding so that you don't have to make a difficult decision is super deluxe weak sauce.

Tom you are seeing seriously LARGE monsters under your bed dude. What kind of flop we would like is irrelevant - if we have TT I wanna see a TTx flop everytime but sadly we can't control what cards fall. We flopped a set we have ~100BB - GET THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE, preferably sooner rather than later. If we get stacked by a bigger set - meh - reload start again. Looking for reasons to get away from a flopped set on the flop at these stakes is very -EV.

[ QUOTE ]
22 is easier to get away from....

[/ QUOTE ] if the flop comes AJ7 then I suppose yes it is - but why are you looking for reasons to fold???

If you never ever ever ever fold a flopped set for ~100BB at these stakes you are playing pretty close to optimal EV wise.

If the board comes 4flush and villain keeps betting THEN I start THINKING about folding, or if it's super obvious that villain has AA/KK and the flop comes AKx (where x makes me my set) then I *think* about folding - but I very rarely do.

Quite often my read is way off villain has AK on the AKx flop and I stack him, stop looking for ways to fold sets - it's -----EV.

[ QUOTE ]
Why the hell is going all in..in marginal situations a good decision....

[/ QUOTE ]

because of FE and +EVness.

If there is a situation at apoker table where you think that a move is +EV you should ake it everytime. without exception.

If we are ~50/50 on the flop (say we flop a fd and a straight draw and we think villain has top pair) we push the flop as sometimes villain will fold to the push, sometimes he calls and our draw hits and we stack him and sometimes we miss the draw and lose the pot - but add them all together and in the long run (say we run the same hand 25 times) we come out ahead. It's not playing bingo - it's called playing good poker.

[ QUOTE ]
All in is a terrible play IMO on most occasions...

[/ QUOTE ]

your opinion is flat out wrong.

Variance is good - embrace the variance - don't try and win every pot - try and win the most money you can in the long run - oftentimes to do that you need to get it all in the middle.

imo too many suggestions in uNL are horrible weak tight suggestions. If you keep playing weak tight predictable poker you will find yourself rarely winning abig pot and often winning a small pot - and often losing a big pot - this is very bad (I used to play like this and my winrate was awful - I "got it" a while ago and these days my bottom line is sooo much healthier)

[gumpzilla]

I think this hand is worth looking at. "Never fold a flopped set" is great and all, but at first glance this looks like the kind of situation where I'd at least be thinking about it.

What's a reasonable range for a SB 3-bet against an UTG bet and call (and it's a small 3-bet, too, which seems a little weird to me)? Let's say we put him on 99+, AQ-AK, AJs. Then we have 70% equity. Now let's say he only bets out with JJ+, AK, AJs. We still have 60% equity. At first I was agonizing a little bit about what I'd do here, but looking at those numbers there's no ditching this hand. I think the key is that the AK, JJ and AA combinations are so much more frequent than the sets or straights (and you have outs against the straight) that your equity is pretty good here.

The only question I have is whether AK folds to a push. It should, and that's the only thing I don't like about a push. On the other hand, JJ calls a push and probably doesn't stack off unless it hits otherwise, so it's probably a wash. So push is fine, call and induce another bet is fine.

[pokerchap]

about hand no1. i have no idea why i said fold PF. I think i meant something else because i would never fold this PF.

[matrix]

you're getting way too caught up in "zomg he raised from UTG he must have a great hand cos he raised from EP" I think.

this is uNL - most villains don't care that much about position - they see good cards and they raise, sometimes they might stray into level 1 thinking (what has the other guy got?) but most often they play their own cards and noone elses down here.

In the OP hand UTG folds a broadway flop so how good of a hand can he have here??? I mean "zomg he raised from EP - that flop must have hit him" - o wait...

as far as SB goes I think his 3-bet pf range is AJs+ AKo TT+

vs that range (which is probably too tight)...

Board: Qc Kc Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.4537 % 35.75% 00.70% { TT+, AJs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 63.5463 % 62.84% 00.70% { TcTh }

this is an easy flop push - it's not close.

and I seriously doubt that SB folds AK if we push (although he should)

get the chips in the middle

[CaseS87]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting way too caught up in "zomg he raised from UTG he must have a great hand cos he raised from EP" I think.

this is uNL - most villains don't care that much about position - they see good cards and they raise, sometimes they might stray into level 1 thinking (what has the other guy got?) but most often they play their own cards and noone elses down here.

In the OP hand UTG folds a broadway flop so how good of a hand can he have here??? I mean "zomg he raised from EP - that flop must have hit him" - o wait...

as far as SB goes I think his 3-bet pf range is AJs+ AKo TT+

vs that range (which is probably too tight)...

Board: Qc Kc Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.4537 % 35.75% 00.70% { TT+, AJs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 63.5463 % 62.84% 00.70% { TcTh }

this is an easy flop push - it's not close.

and I seriously doubt that SB folds AK if we push (although he should)

get the chips in the middle

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this assesment is way off. Sure, we are playing 50nl, but these guys aren't completely retarded. They understand UTG is different than the button, the SB understands that a tight guy raised utg, he is NOT 3 betting AQ or AJ, I am sure of that. Even if the main villain had his eyes closed and only looked at his cards, his pfr numbers are only 8.6. He is not rring AJ AQ, there is a good chance he isn't even rring JJ or AK.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]


I think this assesment is way off. Sure, we are playing 50nl, but these guys aren't completely retarded. They understand UTG is different than the button, the SB understands that a tight guy raised utg,

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not saying they are retarded, I am just saying that they don't think about poker the same way we do generally speaking. How many hands of info is this stat over?

Does UTG realise that he should be playing very very very very very few hands from EP especially with tight aggressive players who might well 3-bet him IP still to act (which is a whole different ballpark away from realising that UTG is a little different from the button)

How do you know that SB even knows that UTG is playing tight???

[ QUOTE ]
he is NOT 3 betting AQ or AJ, I am sure of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he probably 3-bets AQs and AJs here but not the offsuit versions. What makes you so sure that he isn't 3-betting with these hands???

OK then - lets say he re-raises AA,KK,QQ and AKs only (this is a ridiculously tight range but w/e)

Board: Qc Kc Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.8519 % 46.98% 00.87% { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 52.1481 % 51.28% 00.87% { TcTh }

it's STILL a push on the flop.

at the very least I think you have to add AKo to this range and if you do that we're 65/35...

[CaseS87]

These stats are over several hundred hands, and also all 3 of us had been playing at the same table for over 100 hands.

[ggighn]

You flopped your set. I think your hand is good. Either push now or push turn. Sometimes, you're up against higher set, too bad...reload

[matrix]

ok so we got good stats (you missed answering the other questions but hey..)

SB raises 8.6% of hands preflop

8.6% translates to 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

I reckon he probably re-raises out of all those hands JJ+ AQs+ and AK at the very least.

and we look golden vs that range - and he's calling a push with most if not all of that range as well - so I still say push the flop.

What actual hand he has here doesn't matter, what the results were don't matter.

What matters is - in the long run what RANGE of hands will he play like this and how does our particular hand rate vs that range.

hell if you absolutely 100% positive that he only re-raises AA,KK here ...

Board: Qc Kc Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.6970 % 43.94% 00.76% { KK+ }
Hand 2: 55.3030 % 54.55% 00.76% { TcTh }

it's still a push.

there's also 34BB of dead money in the pot already as an overlay to sweeten the deal here.

[tomonbass]

Ok Matrix Lets break this down.....

[ QUOTE ]
fold pf???? wtf???????????????

by the time the action gets to you on the flop it's 2way NOT 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">Ok Im not talking about calling the Orginal raise at this point and talking about considering folding after the reraise and the call... I too would never fold a pair of tens to a single reasonable raise.. but once there has been a reraise and the the orginal raiser has called THEN you need to consider what has happened and make your decision from there... I personally dont want to take too much heat with pairs 22-JJ especially with 99-JJ cos your going to be faced with tough decisions after the flop and risk going broke to other bigger pairs or overcards...

If your getting reraised when you are holding 99-JJ its likely that your opponents have an overpair or overcards meaning your in a coinflip situation at best..</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding pf looks good to me too ...

The reason being that you are going to have a difficult decision

[/ QUOTE ]

eh???

sometimes in pokah you are faced with difficult decisions, folding so that you don't have to make a difficult decision is super deluxe weak sauce.

Tom you are seeing seriously LARGE monsters under your bed dude. What kind of flop we would like is irrelevant - if we have TT I wanna see a TTx flop everytime but sadly we can't control what cards fall. We flopped a set we have ~100BB - GET THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE, preferably sooner rather than later. If we get stacked by a bigger set - meh - reload start again. Looking for reasons to get away from a flopped set on the flop at these stakes is very -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue"> How is folding to avoid tough decisions weak sauce?? It seems like common sense to me.. If you are thinking properly about your game and what effect future cards could do to your hand.. then making a decision that will benefit you earier on in the hand before the difficult situation arrises is good poker IMO...

Like I mentioned before I would fold a straight draw when there is a flush draw on the board.. because if I make my straight with a flush card then Im in a tough spot when facing heat and put myself to an unnecessary difficult decision that could cost me my stack... I like to keep the game as simple as possible... and the eaisier I make it for myself the more efficent Im playing and the more difficult I make it for my opponents To put pressure on me... I dont want pressure or difficult decisions if I can help it and I will go out of my way to avoid situations like this if possible</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
22 is easier to get away from....

[/ QUOTE ] if the flop comes AJ7 then I suppose yes it is - but why are you looking for reasons to fold???

If you never ever ever ever fold a flopped set for ~100BB at these stakes you are playing pretty close to optimal EV wise.

If the board comes 4flush and villain keeps betting THEN I start THINKING about folding, or if it's super obvious that villain has AA/KK and the flop comes AKx (where x makes me my set) then I *think* about folding - but I very rarely do.

Quite often my read is way off villain has AK on the AKx flop and I stack him, stop looking for ways to fold sets - it's -----EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">The reason you look for a reason to fold is exactly the same why you look for a reason to bet Its nothing to do with seeing monsters under my bed... you analyise what has gone on in the hand and make your decision from there if it looks bad then you get away from your hand... If it looks good then you bet and raise accordingly..... granted getting away from a set is a tough thing to do and I also rarely fold to a set e.g. to that AKX example on most occasions Im going broke too if beat... but sometimes when the likelyhood of your set being beaten is high... then you must must must seriously consider folding regardless of EV etc You must use the information that is being given to you from your opponents and go from there If the information says your beat then go with it.... trust yourself.. its the only person at the table you can..</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why the hell is going all in..in marginal situations a good decision....

[/ QUOTE ]

because of FE and +EVness.

If there is a situation at apoker table where you think that a move is +EV you should ake it everytime. without exception.

If we are ~50/50 on the flop (say we flop a fd and a straight draw and we think villain has top pair) we push the flop as sometimes villain will fold to the push, sometimes he calls and our draw hits and we stack him and sometimes we miss the draw and lose the pot - but add them all together and in the long run (say we run the same hand 25 times) we come out ahead. It's not playing bingo - it's called playing good poker.....

[/ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">
Ok Im not going to argue with figures because figures arent wrong.. your math and everything is spot on as it always is around here so Im not disagreeing with the figures etc...

However lets remember what EV actually means.... It means EXPECTED VALUE what we would EXPECT to make on a given hand not ACTUAL VALUE....

You statement saying thet you should make a +EV move without exception is wrong... you should make the +EV move without exception WHEN and only when the situation warrants it.. not everytime If you push your big draw into a weak opponent that you know is going to call with anything..but you know you could probably manipulate the betting to see future streets cheaply then you are making a mistake by pushing... there are so many sernarios we could run like this where a +EV move is avaliable on the flop BUT the situation doesnt always support it....

Poker IMO is a game of situations using the information that you have gained from your opponents to use against them at the correct time... although Mathematically a situation may call for an all in doesnt mean that at that exact situation calls for that all in decision...

FE is something that is misused at this level of play... to be quite honest unless you stumble across a semi decent player its practically extinct... as we know most players play there cards etc etc... combine that with the obviousness of some of the big draw pushes that occur then your putting alot of money at risk on a coinflip... it is bingo... putting your own money on the line on a coinflip is bingo I think alot of people overvalue FE and dont adjust there play accordingly at these levels of play..</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All in is a terrible play IMO on most occasions...

[/ QUOTE ]

your opinion is flat out wrong.

Variance is good - embrace the variance - don't try and win every pot - try and win the most money you can in the long run - oftentimes to do that you need to get it all in the middle.

imo too many suggestions in uNL are horrible weak tight suggestions. If you keep playing weak tight predictable poker you will find yourself rarely winning abig pot and often winning a small pot - and often losing a big pot - this is very bad (I used to play like this and my winrate was awful - I "got it" a while ago and these days my bottom line is sooo much healthier)

[/ QUOTE ]...

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">This statement annoyed me... My own opinion is never wrong just as your own opinion is never wrong.. when there is a differance in opinion it dosent mean that one is correct and the other is incorrect its just two different people that see two different sides of the coin... I like Burger King better than Mcdonalds... Im I wrong.. no of course not because thats what I think Fact... everyone may not agree with me and have a differance of opinion but it doesnt make me wrong.... OK thats that bit off my chest...:)

Variance isnt good IMO you want as little variance as possible when playing poker and to win the most money you can and to win the most money in the long run you need to try and win the most money you can in the short run...

You want to win as much as you can given the situations and lose as little as possible... If you could help it you wouldnt want to lose any amount of money while playing and you would want to win everything on the table....

What Im saying is you want maximum profit with minimal variance.. thats how you play optimum poker....

The long run is all well and good but as Ive said pokers about the current situation that you are currently in... Think more about the here and now rather than in the future I EXPECT to be +2bbs think about pushing your bigger edges and prehaps slowing down when in more marginal ones... its not weak tight Its common sense though I agree that a complete weak tight style of play is no way to play poker... but if the situation requires that play then that is fine...

Use all the tools in your toolbox not just the calculator...
</font>

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

However lets remember what EV actually means.... It means EXPECTED VALUE what we would EXPECT to make on a given hand not ACTUAL VALUE....

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

I've picked out this point and will startup a new thread soon to discuss some of the other things you have raised (no pun intended) as it's going to get lost here and I think it would make a great discussion for uNL.

EV does mean expected value but it's not the value that you expect to make on any single given hand.

STOP STOP STOP thinking about individual hands - thinking this way is what we call "being results oriented" and it's a bad way to think. (I used to think like this when I started playing and it's not good at all)

EV is the value you expect to make in the long run Imagine if you like that a this situation is replayed 1000 times if it helps.

If your poker career is long enough and you play enough hands many situations will be repeated often.

so say you push the flop here 1000 times - and then add up all the wins and losses - if after adding them all up you have a positive number that is a +EV play, and if it's a negative number it's a -EV play. Sometimes when you push the flop here villain will hold AA sometimes he will have KK sometimes he will have 72o and be bluffing(but not very often) - add in all the other hands he could conceivably hold here and you come up with a RANGE of hands, and it's a range of hands you ought to be playing against - not a single solitary one hand.

What this villain actually held this one single time doesn't matter, what the actual results of this hand were don't matter, what matters is what range of hands will he make this play with, and how does our own hand stack up vs that range.

You should always try and make +EV plays and whenever you spot a +EV opportunity at a table you should take it EVERY time. (if you don't you are losing money - do you see why?)

You have a bankroll (which is hopefully 20buyins+) for a reason and the reason is so that you don't go broke making +EV plays before variance catches up.

it's possible to get all-in AA vs KK and lose 20 times (tho this is very very unlikely) it's the unknown luck factor, the chance element in poker that we call "variance" - variance is neither good or bad - and it is totally unavoidable. In the long run luck or variance call it what you will will even out - for every downswing where you keep getting money in as a favourite lots and lose the hand to some unlikely suckout there will be a correspondingly lucky heater. In the short term variance might cause your winrate to look better than it really is or a lot worse than it really is - but eventually after you've played an infinite number of hands variance is eliminated from the results and what you see is a direct result of how well you play.

In the long run you aim to win more money when you are a favourite in a hand and lose less when you are the underdog if you can do that you will be a winning player - if you can't do that you will be a losing player. It really is that simple.

Figuring out when you are a favourite or an underdog is the hard bit that we use all kinds of tools for, from calculators to PT to HUDs and more, but in certain situations - e.g. on the flop when you have flopped a set you are almost always a favourite before the turn is dealt against any villains likely range - and for this reason I keep advocating not folding a flopped set for ~100BBs.

One of the reasons I love twoplustwo is that if I am wrong - some respected, well known poster who knows better than I do will shortly be along to correct me and point out why I am wrong. So far I don't think I am wrong here.

I don't want to come over too harshly - but a lot of what you are saying here is misguided at best. It's in your own interest to listen and learn from these forums. By all means argue your case - lets have a good discussion. This EV stuff is very important and the better we on these forums can help you to understand EV the better player you'll become. (and the better I am able to explain EV, or to correct people that have got things wrong the better player it makes me as well.)

Everyones still learning poker here, it's such a subtle, nuanced, difficult, extremely complicated game that I don't think anyone will ever know everything about it.

[pokerchap]

matrix your are on the top 20 posters IMO. your posts are very +EV /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok Im not talking about calling the Orginal raise at this point and talking about considering folding after the reraise and the call... I too would never fold a pair of tens to a single reasonable raise.. but once there has been a reraise and the the orginal raiser has called THEN you need to consider what has happened and make your decision from there... I personally dont want to take too much heat with pairs 22-JJ especially with 99-JJ cos your going to be faced with tough decisions after the flop and risk going broke to other bigger pairs or overcards...

If your getting reraised when you are holding 99-JJ its likely that your opponents have an overpair or overcards meaning your in a coinflip situation at best..

[/ QUOTE ]


You're absolutely right in that you must take into account all the information you have before you make your decision but don't forget that in this hand OP is closing the action if he calls. This decision is very easy and Hero ought to call.

In this spot you look at odds the pot is offering coupled with the likely future betting. You compare this to the amount you have to call at that point to see the flop. Once the flop comes down if you have a set you keep playing - and if you don't flop a set you fold.(most of the time)

You're facing 2 villains who like their preflop hands very much. They are almost certainly going to bet more money after the flop even if it has a T in it and you make a set.

In this spot it's very very likely that IF we make a set we will a) win the hand and b) make 10x as much profit from the pot than the amount we need to call to see a flop. DOn't forget as well that if we flop a set we are quite likely to make a full house - (more likely than you are to make a flush if you flop a 2flush board flsh draw) and a full house beats a LOT of hands.

From the preflop betting we can make an educated guess that our hand might only be the best preflop hand at the table x% of the time, depending on the exact flop and the action that follows it we might deduce that our hand IS the best at the table (for example maybe both villains have AK the flop comes all undercards - say 935r - and both villains stop betting) in which case we can continue playing as well.

If Hero wasn't closing the action here THEN I would think about folding as we aren't at that point guaranteed to see the flop for the size of call we are making, and calling and then getting raised AGAIN by a villain who's yet to act would be a complete disaster.

In general pocket pairs are very very very easy to play postflop - flop a set get all the money in - miss the set fold on the flop without spending more money. This is an oversimplification, some decisions and flops will be very close as to play or fold even if we miss and figuring those out is quite hard. But at uNL tables you can pretty much play fit or fold with any pocket pair without losing much long term value.

Folding TT (or 22 or any pair here) after the re-raise when you are closing the action and have ~1:8 chance of flopping a set - are likely to make 10x your call amount in profit if you make the set and are closing the action preflop would be terrible.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
matrix your are on the top 20 posters IMO. your posts are very +EV /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif - I learned almost everything I have to date from these forums so a big thanks to 2p2 and the people in the past who have passed on their knowledge to me - I am just trying to help some of the next generation if you like advance to at least the mediocre level that I have got to.

Tho I'm not sure about top 20 at all ... (I still have a LOT to learn about this game)

[tomonbass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

However lets remember what EV actually means.... It means EXPECTED VALUE what we would EXPECT to make on a given hand not ACTUAL VALUE....

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

I've picked out this point and will startup a new thread soon to discuss some of the other things you have raised (no pun intended) as it's going to get lost here and I think it would make a great discussion for uNL.

EV does mean expected value but it's not the value that you expect to make on any single given hand.

STOP STOP STOP thinking about individual hands - thinking this way is what we call "being results oriented" and it's a bad way to think. (I used to think like this when I started playing and it's not good at all)

EV is the value you expect to make in the long run Imagine if you like that a this situation is replayed 1000 times if it helps.

If your poker career is long enough and you play enough hands many situations will be repeated often.

so say you push the flop here 1000 times - and then add up all the wins and losses - if after adding them all up you have a positive number that is a +EV play, and if it's a negative number it's a -EV play. Sometimes when you push the flop here villain will hold AA sometimes he will have KK sometimes he will have 72o and be bluffing(but not very often) - add in all the other hands he could conceivably hold here and you come up with a RANGE of hands, and it's a range of hands you ought to be playing against - not a single solitary one hand.

What this villain actually held this one single time doesn't matter, what the actual results of this hand were don't matter, what matters is what range of hands will he make this play with, and how does our own hand stack up vs that range.

You should always try and make +EV plays and whenever you spot a +EV opportunity at a table you should take it EVERY time. (if you don't you are losing money - do you see why?)

You have a bankroll (which is hopefully 20buyins+) for a reason and the reason is so that you don't go broke making +EV plays before variance catches up.

it's possible to get all-in AA vs KK and lose 20 times (tho this is very very unlikely) it's the unknown luck factor, the chance element in poker that we call "variance" - variance is neither good or bad - and it is totally unavoidable. In the long run luck or variance call it what you will will even out - for every downswing where you keep getting money in as a favourite lots and lose the hand to some unlikely suckout there will be a correspondingly lucky heater. In the short term variance might cause your winrate to look better than it really is or a lot worse than it really is - but eventually after you've played an infinite number of hands variance is eliminated from the results and what you see is a direct result of how well you play.

In the long run you aim to win more money when you are a favourite in a hand and lose less when you are the underdog if you can do that you will be a winning player - if you can't do that you will be a losing player. It really is that simple.

Figuring out when you are a favourite or an underdog is the hard bit that we use all kinds of tools for, from calculators to PT to HUDs and more, but in certain situations - e.g. on the flop when you have flopped a set you are almost always a favourite before the turn is dealt against any villains likely range - and for this reason I keep advocating not folding a flopped set for ~100BBs.

One of the reasons I love twoplustwo is that if I am wrong - some respected, well known poster who knows better than I do will shortly be along to correct me and point out why I am wrong. So far I don't think I am wrong here.

I don't want to come over too harshly - but a lot of what you are saying here is misguided at best. It's in your own interest to listen and learn from these forums. By all means argue your case - lets have a good discussion. This EV stuff is very important and the better we on these forums can help you to understand EV the better player you'll become. (and the better I am able to explain EV, or to correct people that have got things wrong the better player it makes me as well.)

Everyones still learning poker here, it's such a subtle, nuanced, difficult, extremely complicated game that I don't think anyone will ever know everything about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah That quote of mine was a but vague in heinsite....

Your explanation of EV was super I do understand what you have said and the principles of EV... I understand that poker is a long term game and not just about individual hands/sessions etc...

I dont disagree with your explaination and understanding of EV I just disagree with your application of it.

I just Think blindly making a play just because its +EV is wrong....

You touched on these points briefly during you post but Id just like to expand on them...

Whenever there is a mathematical problem there is always variables that you need to take into account....

When these variables change our outcome becomes different.. so we cant really assume That A+B = C (Which it seems like you are saying about +EV moves and that is why you should make them all the time) because if A or B change in someway then our answer cant possibly be the same...

And the variables in poker are large in list....

Stack sizes/number of opponents/style of opponents/Size of pot/Your hole cards/your opponents range/the flop/the turn/ the river/ the list goes on and on...

These all need to be considered before deciding our play EV is only a small part of the jigsaw and it most definatly needs to be considered before we decide our play... but just because one part of the equation says go doesnt mean that all the rest do.. and thats the point Im trying to make...

Just basing your entire choices on EV alone is clearly wrong when there are so many other variables to factor into your decision....I think we would all improve if we try and do this more in our choices...

I dont always do it sometime I make decisions on a whim and I always regret it whether the hand turns good or bad.. its just vitally important to consider everything everyhand IMO and I think if you can do that then your (everybodys including myself) play will improve greatly...

and this EV thing is still just expected whether over an infinate number of hands or 1000.... lets elaborate to get across what Im trying to say.... just cos its expected doesnt mean it will come...

I got these two buddys (this is a hypothetical tale... as unfortunatly I have no friends /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

These guys are called PEV (+EV) and NEV (-EV)...

Now PEV knows everything there is to know about poker maths &amp; theory, everything hes a very intelligent guy and when he plays poker whenever there is a +EV play to make he will make it without exception (as Matrix suggests)...

Unfortunatly PEV is the worlds unluckiest guy.. I mean this guy must of smashed mirrors while walking under ladders and on cracks in paving slabs on friday the 13th... nothing absolutley nothing goes his way... every +EV move he makes he loses every all in goes against him every big draw misses... saddly PEV went bankrupt due to poker soon after died after he unluckly got crushed by ACME anvil falling randomly from the sky......

Now NEV is a god awful poker player... he doesnt have a clue about anything... however this guy must of been given a blow job by a lady leprachuan while picking 4 leafed clovers from a field... he has all the luck in the world....

Now NEV only ever makes -EV plays but this guy hits everything all the time... everydraw every runner runner... he just cant lose a hand no matter how bad the situation is it always swings his way...

This guy makes hellmuths head explode and makes Ferguson check his calculator....

NEV currently spends his times in the worlds favorite Penthouses smoking Cuban Cigars and drinking the finest Champagne.....

I know this tale is extreme but hopefully this gets my point accross /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Peace out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Whenever there is a mathematical problem there is always variables that you need to take into account....

When these variables change our outcome becomes different.. so we cant really assume That A+B = C (Which it seems like you are saying about +EV moves and that is why you should make them all the time) because if A or B change in someway then our answer cant possibly be the same...

And the variables in poker are large in list....

Stack sizes/number of opponents/style of opponents/Size of pot/Your hole cards/your opponents range/the flop/the turn/ the river/ the list goes on and on...

These all need to be considered before deciding our play EV is only a small part of the jigsaw and it most definatly needs to be considered before we decide our play... but just because one part of the equation says go doesnt mean that all the rest do.. and thats the point Im trying to make...

Just basing your entire choices on EV alone is clearly wrong when there are so many other variables to factor into your decision....


[/ QUOTE ]

I refer the honourable gentleperson to this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=7853639&amp;an=0&amp;page=0#Post 7853639) post.

You should ALWAYS base your poker decisions on EV. Stack sizes, position, opponents tendancies, etc etc (the whole long list of variables) alter the EV of the play. Your job when you play poker is to figure out which play has the most EV and make it - EVERYTIME.

EV isn't just another variable to consider.

You consider the list of variables to discover the EV, then you make a play.

[ QUOTE ]

and this EV thing is still just expected whether over an infinate number of hands or 1000.... lets elaborate to get across what Im trying to say.... just cos its expected doesnt mean it will come...

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong.

Every play has an EV a "perfect average of all possible results" if you like and once you play a large enough number of hands your actual winrate will be very close to your expected EV winrate - and the more and more hands you play the closer EV your wr and real wr will get to each other.

The difference between these two figures is caused by variance and the larger the sample size the less effect variance has.

I got these two buddys (this is a hypothetical tale... as unfortunatly I have no friends /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

[ QUOTE ]


These guys are called PEV (+EV) and NEV (-EV)...

Now PEV knows everything there is to know about poker maths &amp; theory, everything hes a very intelligent guy and when he plays poker whenever there is a +EV play to make he will make it without exception (as Matrix suggests)...

Unfortunatly PEV is the worlds unluckiest guy.. I mean this guy must of smashed mirrors while walking under ladders and on cracks in paving slabs on friday the 13th... nothing absolutley nothing goes his way... every +EV move he makes he loses every all in goes against him every big draw misses... saddly PEV went bankrupt due to poker soon after died after he unluckly got crushed by ACME anvil falling randomly from the sky......

Now NEV is a god awful poker player... he doesnt have a clue about anything... however this guy must of been given a blow job by a lady leprachuan while picking 4 leafed clovers from a field... he has all the luck in the world....

Now NEV only ever makes -EV plays but this guy hits everything all the time... everydraw every runner runner... he just cant lose a hand no matter how bad the situation is it always swings his way...

This guy makes hellmuths head explode and makes Ferguson check his calculator....

NEV currently spends his times in the worlds favorite Penthouses smoking Cuban Cigars and drinking the finest Champagne.....

I know this tale is extreme but hopefully this gets my point accross /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Peace out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

if your point is "I still don't quite understand this EV stuff" then yes it comes across loud and clear /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $3</font>, Tomonbass calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($8.35, 2 players)
Tomonbass checks, CO checks.

River: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Tomonbass bets $5</font>, CO folds.
Uncalled bets: $5 returned to Tomonbass.

Results:
Final pot: $8.35


Again this is where I normally push a flop without thinking to much ... but decided to slow it down...


[/ QUOTE ]

Just wanted to "second" everything Matrix said. Also, for the love of god please bet this turn.

[tomonbass]

lol /images/graemlins/smile.gif I read your EV post buddy very nice post....

Can we just agree to disagree ? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Pev n Nev Rawk!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matrix]

If it makes you happy we can agree to disagree.

Tho can you point out to Nev that his name reminds me of a well worn cliche...

Nothing lasts forever.

Not my downswing - not his heater - hell one day even the sun is going to explode and is going to stop doing the rising setting thing anymore.

Contrary to popular belief in the long haul it's much better to be good than lucky, right now I'm neither - but I'm working on the first one.

[f1shermanjim]

Matrix,

Just a question to help me clear up my thinking on EV?

You use PokerStove and I do to, but my question is this. When you say you put the villian on a range and you enter this range into PokerStove, then it gives you your %EV and if you are above 50% then you are saying it is correct to get it all in when you are ahead?

Shouldn't we put some weight to the hands within the range that we put someone on.

If someone is really tight and only raises pre-flop with premium hands and they have an equal or greater stack than us, but all of our information so far says they rarely make continuation bets, then shouldn't we put more weight on certain hands within our range than others?

Or should we just re-evaluate our range?

Sure they could raise with JJ+ and AKs, but if they make a pot sized bet on the flop, shouldn't we say then that they are 85% or more likely to have AA or KK and only 15% to have AK, AQ, AJ, etc...

1. First should we be weighing certain hands in the range?

2. Would this affect us pushing.

3. Wouldn't this also make us lean towards a call, if for no other reason then to see what they do on the Turn?

I'm just curious and don't want to start an arguement. I just find it very hard to decide the correct way to play these types of hands/situations.

Thanks in advance.

[sigurrostyp]

push the flop, and if you are way behind you reload.

[AnjoRush]

sorry but i think villian would 3-bet from SB with AQs AKs or AA and other hands, if it is AA lot better, stack him /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The pre flop... i'd raise that up, the guy is 19/10 but he can raise with good variety of hands, AK AJ AQ, 66~~AA, if he made 2 pairs at the flop, simple stack him /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

As played, i'd move all in and hope to doesnt be set over set. i'd like a raise at pre flop, but call it's fine too, but u played for set value, u did it, so... go with it now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

PS: U guys write a lot, i'll read everythinh now, maybe i change my mind

[shpanko]

KK and QQ probably don't pot the flop. SOme players might but I think that this bet size is much more indicative of AA or AK than QQ/KK. JJ is also possible here as a semibluff. I either call and push non J turn or push here on the flop. Villain will have AA/AK enough and won't be able to get away from it enough for this to be profitable. I really don't think you should ever ever ever fold TT here given how villain bet on the flop (a protective bet much more than a value bet).

[shpanko]

I usually don't berate people or ideas during threads because it's immature. But to those saying fold pf to the reraise that idea is simply retarded. For one villain could be aqueezing here with a lot of hands that we beat. Second, if villain does have AA/KK/QQ we can most definitely stack him if he hit our set on a dry board. The implied odds are huge and combine that with the fact that we might be ahead and folding pf should pretty much never be considered.

[ChipStorm]

We could seriously consider folding this preflop if we weren't closing the action. But we are, and we have position, AND we have good implied odds, so it's a pretty easy call. The pot is already laying us better than 3:1, and we only need to average 7.5:1 net to justify playing for the set, so it's a go.

Given that we DID hit, this is a pretty crappy flop for us, as it does offer the possibility that we got straighted or oversetted, or that someone has a monster draw on us right out of the box. I think it's a little closer than some posters represent, but I'm still going broke here every single time. This situation happens very seldom; with a set of Ts, I'm going to continue to worry more about folding best hand than losing to a better one.

Final remark on the EV discussion. matrix is absolutely dead on that +EV is +EV is +EV, and you should be making those plays.

However, Great Big EV Caveat: EV is a mathematical calculation, and there are almost always assumptions that go into making that calculation. If you are rock-solid, absolutely certain that your EV in a situation is 100% known, in addition to being positive, then you should be prepared to make that play all day long.

BUT, to the extent that you made assumptions in the calculation, and your assumptions may be incorrect, then you MUST build in a cushion for error for yourself. And if you're NEW TO THIS GAME, as many here are, then you should build in a wide comfort cushion, because your likelihood of having made a mistake or incorrect assumption is greater, 'cause you're a n00b.

"Precision without accuracy" can be a very dangerous thing.