NL25 (FR) AA - Opportunity to push preflop for 101BB. Take it?

[ymu]

I've never done this deep-stacked before outside of a tournament (I always do it in tournaments, but a deep stack in a tournament is 20BB). This seemed like a good time to try it in a cash game.

Villan 1 (UTG) is a very aggressive player who doesn't like being out-aggressed preflop (I've seen him 3-bet AI with AQo for 60BB in previous sessions). He's very aggressive post-flop, but also very capable of folding post-flop without a good hand/strong draw. He frequently open-raises 8x in EP with decent hands. He was also steaming having just lost KK to AA a few hands ago (AA 4-bet AI preflop).

Villain 2 (UTG+1) seems to play anything pretty for any amount in any position.

The only other possibly relevant piece of information is that I'd stacked someone on the previous orbit raising AA from the button and getting limp-reraised by UTG with noone else in the pot. I flat-called instead of 3-betting and we got it all-in on the flop, AA vs KK, so he might not be expecting me to raise big with AA here (unless he understands the difference between the two situations, and I'm not sure he does).

MP3 (26.25)
MP4 ($44.60)
CO ($10.45)
Button ($15.90)
SB ($22.10)
BB (Hero) ($64.05)
UTG ($25.28)
UTG+1 ($18.35)
MP1 ($24.05)
MP2 ($25.70)

Dealt to Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises to $2, UTG+1 calls, 7 folds, Hero raises to $25.28


I was in a bit of a dilemma here. I wanted to isolate UTG without making my hand entirely obvious. I didn't trust UTG+1 to fold to a smaller raise (I'm happy if he calls AI and even happier if he folds having paid the rake for the whole hand). I'm OOP to both of them and I wasn't keen on stacking off if one of them hit hard enough not to fold the flop - or on winning a small-ish pot if they both folded the flop.

Given this, and the read on UTG, I raised to exactly UTG's stack size to try and needle him into a call.

Thoughts? Good play or waste of a great hand?

[Dave Coulier]

If UTG is aggressive as you say he is, I would make a standard reraise and hope he does as you say and repop it with less than stellar hand pushing UTG+1 out.

Ive never hand any type of luck reraising all-in preflop like this before when there have been plenty of donkeys at the table. They're usually willing to call large raises with hands they shouldn't, but calling all-in they usually dont do.

[PietM]

I would just raise to $8 here. If UTG is as aggressive as you mentioned, let him do the all-in push. Let him be aggressive...

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just raise to $8 here. If UTG is as aggressive as you mentioned, let him do the all-in push. Let him be aggressive...

[/ QUOTE ]

(Reply to both of you as you both made the same point)

This is exactly what I normally do with this villain. The main reason I didn't try it this time was because he'd just 3-bet himself into oblivion with KK against AA so I thought he'd probably be more cautious 3-betting this time with just about any holding.

I also didn't want UTG+1 coming along and leaving 2/3 of a PSB on the flop against UTG, and 1/3 PSB against UTG+1. If they have nothing, they fold - if they have any reasonable draw, they call with two cards to come and no more betting.

[Dave Coulier]

Villain could have tightend up after getting stacked with KK versus AA, but I doubt it. That happens to everyone and should be expected at some point, so theres not much reason to tighten up.

Also tightening up really isn't in the gameplan for a very aggressive player. I dont think you need to worry about that.

Just hope he's tilting after the "bad beat" he received and pushes into a reraise.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain could have tightend up after getting stacked with KK versus AA, but I doubt it. That happens to everyone and should be expected at some point, so theres not much reason to tighten up.

Also tightening up really isn't in the gameplan for a very aggressive player. I dont think you need to worry about that.

Just hope he's tilting after the "bad beat" he received and pushes into a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]
The tilting is a good point - it was certainly possible that he might push over a reraise, and I did consider that as an option. However, given the chance to flat call a raise I thought he might take it - which leaves me in all sorts of trouble with UTG+1 potentially coming along for the ride. The more I raise to isolate, the better odds I give any draw on the flop.

Note that this situation is heavily exacerbated by his 8x opening raise - a sensible reraise with FE against UTG+1 doesn't leave many options on the flop.

On the other hand, this villain really does have trouble finding the fold button preflop - it's like "how dare you claim to have a better hand than me". I know he'll happily take a coin-flip with two overs for his stack pre-flop, and a push represents a mid-pair far more than it does AA/KK. I figured that if tilt would be enough to get him to 3betAI it would be enough to get him to call AI - and I also thought that calling AI was actually much more likely for this villain at this time, without leaving me with all the problems that a standard raise and flat call(s) would.

I'll admit that i was probably a bit influenced by my stats with AA - it was a losing hand for me until recently (over a very small sample) because I was so busy pushing people off any imaginable draw that I was either winning small-medium pots or losing big ones (I've reviewed the big losses and there's no obvious folds, and just one marginal 30BB save on the river). So I have been looking for different ways to play it (and found two tonight).

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just raise to $8 here. If UTG is as aggressive as you mentioned, let him do the all-in push. Let him be aggressive...

[/ QUOTE ]
That's what I'd do.

[CaptVimes]

I guess my question is what are you trying to accomplish with this move? Are you trying to stack him, a good idea, or are you trying to get him to stop messing with you when you raise a pot in the future? I think a trap works much better with a type like this, escpecially if his aggressiveness has pushed you off hands earlier in the game. I might over bet the pot to $9 or $10 to actually look like I'm trying to push him off his hand, and his reraise will probably take care of the straggler. Look at your play from the villains eyes, if you have been playing TAG what do you think he would think you have? Have you made this move before with junk? What history have you given the villian that would allow him to make this call? Especially after just getting his KK whooped I think you have to make everything look somewhat normal and then go all in after his reraise. I think this will look like you have had enough and are just taking a stand with anything. Besides, so what if he calls, just push on the flop if it is reasonble. I think the biggest tip off that someone is trying to do something is when they noticeably change their game. I think he would be tilting pretty badly or would just be an idiot (both likely) if he called your all-in as played. You have them both covered, play poker.

my .02

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would just raise to $8 here. If UTG is as aggressive as you mentioned, let him do the all-in push. Let him be aggressive...

[/ QUOTE ]

I also didn't want UTG+1 coming along and leaving 2/3 of a PSB on the flop against UTG, and 1/3 PSB against UTG+1. If they have nothing, they fold - if they have any reasonable draw, they call with two cards to come and no more betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
This will sometimes be true, but there's math worth considering. If you make it $8 and they call, they are incorrect to do so. You've killed their implied odds, and your play is a long term winner, regardless of the flop. So you can just make it $8 and then push the flop no matter what, and know that you're still +EV.

Further, there are lots of flops that they will hit, giving them for example top pair, where they WILL put the rest of their stack in as dogs.

Of course the key is whether villains are much more likely to call a raise to $8 than a push. In a vacuum you have to think so, but of course with a read maybe the push is the thing.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my question is what are you trying to accomplish with this move? Are you trying to stack him, a good idea, or are you trying to get him to stop messing with you when you raise a pot in the future? I think a trap works much better with a type like this, escpecially if his aggressiveness has pushed you off hands earlier in the game. I might over bet the pot to $9 or $10 to actually look like I'm trying to push him off his hand, and his reraise will probably take care of the straggler. Look at your play from the villains eyes, if you have been playing TAG what do you think he would think you have? Have you made this move before with junk? What history have you given the villian that would allow him to make this call? Especially after just getting his KK whooped I think you have to make everything look somewhat normal and then go all in after his reraise. I think this will look like you have had enough and are just taking a stand with anything. Besides, so what if he calls, just push on the flop if it is reasonble. I think the biggest tip off that someone is trying to do something is when they noticeably change their game. I think he would be tilting pretty badly or would just be an idiot (both likely) if he called your all-in as played. You have them both covered, play poker.

my .02

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to stack him rather than let him off cheap with a reraise and an easy flop getaway if he flops <9 outs (neither of them need that many for a +EV call if both come along) - he's aggressive post-flop but not entirely stupid. I'm OOP so it's harder to try and let him hang himself without giving him free cards - and with my hand essentially face up, he knows exactly what he needs to beat me.

I haven't been playing particularly TAG (21/11/4 over 150 hands) - just getting to showdown with some good cards (big difference) and a few questionable ones (T8s on the button raised to 7x after 3 limpers stacking a shortie with A9s staying in with a flush draw to the river).

He knows my game and has reraised me once - I've folded to reraises twice on this table - another reason why he might not give me credit for my second AA in 10 hands here. He's capable of overbet pushing with AQo/55 so he assumes other people are. He also gets a lot of action with his 8x raises because noone believes he'd raise so much with a decent hand.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would just raise to $8 here. If UTG is as aggressive as you mentioned, let him do the all-in push. Let him be aggressive...

[/ QUOTE ]

I also didn't want UTG+1 coming along and leaving 2/3 of a PSB on the flop against UTG, and 1/3 PSB against UTG+1. If they have nothing, they fold - if they have any reasonable draw, they call with two cards to come and no more betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
This will sometimes be true, but there's math worth considering. If you make it $8 and they call, they are incorrect to do so. You've killed their implied odds, and your play is a long term winner, regardless of the flop. So you can just make it $8 and then push the flop no matter what, and know that you're still +EV.

Further, there are lots of flops that they will hit, giving them for example top pair, where they WILL put the rest of their stack in as dogs.

Of course the key is whether villains are much more likely to call a raise to $8 than a push. In a vacuum you have to think so, but of course with a read maybe the push is the thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this - it comes down to how often he will call the AI vs how often he will get away with 2/3 of his stack intact on the flop vs how often he will get odds to stack me instead (and all these variables with UTG+1s actions included). I might have a stab at the maths to see if I can come up with an estimate.

This move was very read-dependent. I can't think of another villain I'd try it against - and even then only when there's a third player/stack sizes/position to consider.

He called with AQo. I had a feeling he would. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ymu]

Here's a shot at the maths.

If he has unpaired suited hole cards he'll flop trips or a flush about 2% (1.35%+0.84%). If he has paired hole cards he'll flop a set about 12%. Paired hole cards are more likely as I hold two As, but he's not necessarily suited, and I have some redraws, so let's give him 5% chance of having me drawing dead or nearly dead on the flop.

With a preflop raise to $8 (assuming UTG+1 folds), putting him AI on the flop gives him 2.3:1, so he needs about 30% equity or a perceived 7 outs to continue without being ahead already. Pair + gutshot + backdoor flush is enough. He may miscount his outs if he thinks an A overcard is good or he's unsuited and I share the backdoor flush draw. However he will sometimes flop many more outs than he needs - 9 for a flush draw, 11 for a pair + flush draw, 15 for pair + gutshot + flush draw etc. So on average, he'll be correct to continue on the flop if he thinks he is.

He'll get a flop like this approx 30% of the time and outdraw me 30% of the time (these numbers just come from considering that I have 15% preflop equity and he'll flop perfect about 5%).

So he puts the rest of his money in on 30% of flops with an average of 30% equity. He folds 70% of flops. So I gain ($10*0.7)+(0.30*0.70*$(25+2))-(0.30*0.30*$25)=7+5.67-2.25 = $10.42 from a PFR.

If he calls AI, I win 85% against his range for an EV of (0.85*$(25+2))=$22.95.

If these very rough calculations are correct, he needs to fold more than 55% for this to be a -EV push. I suspect it gets worse if UTG+1 comes along for the preflop raise, but I can't get my head around doing it for that case.

If these are correct (and I might well have got it horribly wrong somewhere), this is a lot more +EV than I thought it was at the time for this villain - I expect him to call this at least 80%.

[kaz2107]

i love this idea of reraising with AA (or KK) but i like it alot more if u open for 1 in EP and then LP or SB or BB reraises u. look to make this play more often when u raise and are reraised as villians will b much more entitled to call with speculative holdings.

as for this hand i think a push works ok. tha only thing is that the intial raiser might b squeezed a bit much here for it to totally work out the best

[Vammakala]

People at NL25 do call a lot of these with KK-, but I think standard reraise still is better. Make it something like 3x the initial raise + the calls - ie. $8-$10 in this case. Your line isn't all that bad, but making it $8 and hoping the initial raiser pushes (or calls and gets a call in between) seems like a better choise.

I've actually thought of trying this kind of strategy - always just pushing AA (or maybe KK). Sometimes you get calls from ridiculous hands and I think it might even be healthy EV-wise in some spots.

It's not bad, but standard reraise will probably accomplish the same. If you make it $8, the pot is $18, $24 if one calls, $30 if other calls. You can push pretty much any flop after that. ^^

[whodatdare]

*grunch*

Since villain #1 doesn't want anyone more aggressive than him pre flop and Villain #2, by your admission, likes to play any amount from any position I think the correct thing to do is bet less to entice villain #1 to 3 bet you.

[ymu]

Believe me, I never normally do this in a cash game - I would nearly always raise pot ($8.25) and take it from there. This was read specific (can't find a fold preflop, knows when he's beat post-flop), and somewhat influenced by the fact that we were no longer very deep given his 8x opening raise with a cold caller.

I pushed here because I thought he'd go for it, and I knew I'd make more if I could get him to put his stack in as an 85-90% dog than allow him to fold the flop or put the rest in with 30%+ equity.

Having looked at the maths, I'm surprised at how high my preflop FE has to be before this becomes a bad move. This suggests that it might work against a wider range of villains. Not that I'm planning on trying it too often - it rapidly loses value against regulars, obviously. I guess I could try it with 23o next time ... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[4_2_it]

This works great if either villain is tilting or thinks you are tilting. Otherwise make a normal re-raise.

I did this with TT last night on the hand immediately after a guy laid a bad beat on me. He auto called with 99. I flopped a set and he rivered a straight (no poker juctice). He left the table soon after that, but he won't be leaving my buddy list.