22 hits a set on the river but the NIT of the table open poooshes

[kaz2107]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($9.05)
CO ($22.35)
Hero ($75.95)
SB ($46.15)
BB ($61.10)
UTG ($22.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $2.50, CO folds.

Flop: ($10) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, SB calls $8, UTG folds.

Turn: ($26) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($26) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $35.15 (All-In)</font>, Hero


Reads and thoughts...

Villian was a retty big nit which made this hand rather tough. he was playin 15.5 6.7 1.3 over 144 hands.

I made a standard cbet on the flop and was smooth called by villian which was cause for concern to me. i figured he had to b raising with TT+ and thus his range seemed pretty narrow to me. On the turn it seemed like he was begging for a c/r and i obv was plannin to give up the hand and then a dreaed 2 hit. and worse off he open pooshed. WTF?!?!?!?

at this point i really could only see his range being KK+ maybe 98 (but not very) and then a set. there was also a slim chance he was just ryin to bully me since i checked the turn and i assume he was decent enough to realize i cbet all the time and then give up on the turn if i dont have n e thing for the most part. so he could have a missed draw or overs and be trying to buy the pot here. But why so much? a bet of 15 or 20 would do the same. i was lost. wuts my line here on the river?

[uminchu]

crying call, against somebody with 9 3 and infinity stats i think i fold

[Art Vandalay]

I don't want to, but i think i have to call. If he's the nit you say he is, he's more likely to bet small for value with a big hand, not all-in.

[ymu]

I think it's a call. This could easily be 66/77 or a cautious TT-QQ waiting for the turn check to confirm that they're ahead - or 89s/AA/KK slow-played and looking for a turn check-raise. If he's a nit the 2 possible straights seem fairly unlikely (67s maybe, but probably not 67o or A3). He doesn't seem to be looking for value with the overbet, unless he thinks you're terribly reckless.

[tehDiceman]

i think i would call too, however i wouldnt put as much thought into it as everyone else here, perhaps a downfall of mine.

are you going to post the results? im on edge. :-D

[gir]

Either set over set or with those stats, he has an overpair. I'd make the call against those stats any day of the week.

[drunkmonk]

I call too - he played it like he flopped a set but could also just as easily have an overpair.

[Sir Winalot]

Warning weak-tight advice coming.

[ QUOTE ]
Villian was a retty big nit

[/ QUOTE ]
If your read is good I think I'll fold. I think this is too often a bigger set/flopped straigth to call. Without the read or if it's weak I call this all day.

[gir]

I'm pretty sure these stats are nit...not weak tight.

[arden street]

grunch

seeing he's so tight and called your preflop bet from the SB he's probably got a good overpair?

i would guess he was slowplaying KK or similar? and would therfore call.

[pokerchap]

call

[deaders]

I think this is a fold and its not even close.

[matrix]

ewww - looks like NIT flopped a straight or a set and your cooked.

I'm folding this. He hs 88/99/67 here lots of the time.

If the boards paired and we make a boat on the river this is a very close call - as is tho I think it's an easy fold.

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold and its not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]
Phew, thought I was the only one for a while there.

I'd find it hard in the moment, but this is a pretty clear fold.

River overbets like this are monsters, or nothing. No one with half a brain (I know, I know) pushes here with their crappy two pair; they make a reasonable value bet. Villain's actual bet here, with a medium hand that you beat, would just be outrageously stupid.

Even if villain wanted to bluff this river, which would be a reasonable spot for it, given the action to the river any thinking opponent (and especially a nit) is going to figure that a 1/2-pot bet gets the job done.

So villain's bet isn't looking for a fold; he's hoping you somehow came up with a strong enough hand to call. And given that this board has "straight" written all over it, he's either got the flopped straight -- that went for a turn checkraise and missed -- or a set, which means you're dead in any case.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
are you going to post the results? im on edge. :-D

[/ QUOTE ]

i ended up deciding he had an over pair about close to the same percent that he has a set here and bluffs the river a few times thus i made a crying call.

villian showed JT of clubs /images/graemlins/smile.gif
ship

[Vammakala]

I think you kinda have to call. With a guy with this low pf raise %, he could easily have the overpair here. OR he could've made some funky call and be pushing two pair, thinking you have an overpair. Either way, this isn't the time to fold a set. I wouldn't be surprised to see AA here a large % of time ^^

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian was a retty big nit which made this hand rather tough. he was playin 15.5 6.7 1.3 over 144 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way does this villian have 67 here. I don't see a nit calling 6BB OOP with that.

What's your table image?

I think this is an unimproved pocket pair, set over set and sometimes air, maybe AK. If I were him, I don't think I'm c/c this flop if I flopped a set (depending on your image). I'm leading, or c/r if I know you're c-betting it. Maybe he would c/c, I don't know. Would be helpful to know how he's played flopped sets OOP.

I think this is TT+ or another unimproved pair often enough to make a crying call. Maybe. I sure wouldn't like it though.