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View Full Version : 25 NL - WTF? Overbet much vs my combo draw?


Leviathan101
10-25-2006, 07:03 PM
Villian has 4 buy ins in front of him, but seems like a donk to me. I saw him make this play once before but nobody called.

Villians stats are 34.8/0/1.17 over 23 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
8 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $25
UTG+1: $82.70
MP1: $24.75
MP2: $14.75
CO: $22.80
Button: $108
SB: $13.20
BB: $24.75

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero calls, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif ($1, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $24</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is trying to figure out a range. </font>

I figure that villian could have a overpair, set, two pair or nut flush draw here, in addition to a bluff, and a donk way overplaying top pair. I can't see what he can expect me to call with.

Against a range of A7, 66+, 22, As7s, AcKc, 76, 72, 62, I have 44.192% equity. (thank you pokerstove). I'm getting 25:23 odds, which is almost coinflip. However this doesn't factor in any bluffs, but without knowing the villians tedencies, I can't say whether this is a call or fold. I don't know if he slowplays sets, raises big on flush draws, or makes plays like this with holdings like JJ. I can't tell if he limps hands like AA, and looks to get his money in on any flop.

What do you guys think here, and why?

IceMuncher
10-25-2006, 07:07 PM
I don't like putting my stack in the middle when I'm almost never ahead, and hoping that I have a coinflip. Fold, and make a note that villian did this.

CaucasianAsian29
10-25-2006, 07:11 PM
I fold, pick a better spot later

Leviathan101
10-25-2006, 07:38 PM
If this is a +ev call, would you still fold it? Seems like the obvious answer is no, but like what kind of better spot do you want? If it's +ev, my stack is getting in there. If it's -ev it should be a fold regardless whether there is a better spot later or not.
Waiting for a better spot is not justification for a fold.

evilempire
10-25-2006, 07:51 PM
because realistically you have no idea what he is doing this with I also advocate a fold. In other words we can't safely assume this is +EV.

Against an overpair or two pair you have 44% equity. Against a set you have 33%. This is IMO an easy fold without a read.

edit: i type goot

pokerchap
10-25-2006, 08:24 PM
fold
you have poot nooooo money in the pot.
people often overbet like this with FD's ( if he has an FD you are owned)