25NL KK set, tricky river

[spector]

Villian herei s 75/15/1.5 after a tiny sample of 30 hands or so.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
8 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $25.90
UTG+1: $24.65
MP1: $30.10
MP2: $21.70
CO: $12.75
Button: $27.85
hero: $38.15
BB: $29.20

Pre-flop: (8 players) hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
3 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $1.25</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $3</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($10, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $7</font>, MP2 calls.

River: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($24, 2 players)

[Jouster777]

Easy push

[VorShot]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Villian never has a flush draw here?

[Jouster777]

Villain has &lt; 1/2PSB left

[MortenTA]

I dont see any value in shoving. If you push the river he might get away from hands we beat and the flush is most definitely calling.

I dont see us folding this hand at all. I think our best option is to check and call any bet. This way we let him bluff away the last of his stack and we get the most value out of the hands we beat. If he has the flush im going broke.

[UncleKraut]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the push here but since Villain only has $10 left it doesn't make a difference whether you check or push. If he goes all in you have to call.

So it's up to you. I never fold this on the river with this type of stack.

[IceMuncher]

Yep, push. If villian had the flush draw, you denied him the odds to hit it with the turn bet, which is good enough for me. You can push any river card here.

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see any value in shoving. If you push the river he might get away from hands we beat and the flush is most definitely calling.

I dont see us folding this hand at all. I think our best option is to check and call any bet. This way we let him bluff away the last of his stack and we get the most value out of the hands we beat. If he has the flush im going broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

We lose value from top pair hands that check behind us. Villian could easily have something like A9 here. Look at the villians stats.

Edit: In fact, I'll say that the opposite of your theory is true. I think villian checks behind with most of the hands we beat, and pushes with hands that beat us, like the flush.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the push here but since Villain only has $10 left it doesn't make a difference whether you check or push. If he goes all in you have to call.

So it's up to you. I never fold this on the river with this type of stack.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree with that. I think that villain is unlikely to bluff with only a 1/2 PSB whereas he will not fold any non-bluff hand he would have otherwise bet. On the other hand he'll check behind with a lot of hands he would have called with (any A, weak 2-pair)

[MortenTA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont see any value in shoving. If you push the river he might get away from hands we beat and the flush is most definitely calling.

I dont see us folding this hand at all. I think our best option is to check and call any bet. This way we let him bluff away the last of his stack and we get the most value out of the hands we beat. If he has the flush im going broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

We lose value from top pair hands that check behind us. Villian could easily have something like A9 here. Look at the villians stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it really depends if villain is able to lay down Ax if we push. Since he followed us to the river he probably isn't.

I think push is fine as well.

[UncleKraut]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the push here but since Villain only has $10 left it doesn't make a difference whether you check or push. If he goes all in you have to call.

So it's up to you. I never fold this on the river with this type of stack.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree with that. I think that villain is unlikely to bluff with only a 1/2 PSB whereas he will not fold any non-bluff hand he would have otherwise bet. On the other hand he'll check behind with a lot of hands he would have called with (any A, weak 2-pair)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain is likely to bluff with only 1/2 psb behind.

Checking the river makes it obvious that you're scared of the heart. Maybe instead of pushing, put out a $5 bet. But What's the point, really? You folding if he raises all-in on the river?

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the push here but since Villain only has $10 left it doesn't make a difference whether you check or push. If he goes all in you have to call.

So it's up to you. I never fold this on the river with this type of stack.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree with that. I think that villain is unlikely to bluff with only a 1/2 PSB whereas he will not fold any non-bluff hand he would have otherwise bet. On the other hand he'll check behind with a lot of hands he would have called with (any A, weak 2-pair)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain is likely to bluff with only 1/2 psb behind.

Checking the river makes it obvious that you're scared of the heart. Maybe instead of pushing, put out a $5 bet. But What's the point, really? You folding if he raises all-in on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that we're trying to win that last $10 of villians. Villians stats make him appear to be more of a calling station than a bluff-monkey. His point, and my point, is that pushing will get that $10 to call more often with a worse hand than inducing a bluff by checking will. Even if it's marginal, it's still more money, and more +ev, IMO, and that makes it worth doing.

[UncleKraut]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy push

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the push here but since Villain only has $10 left it doesn't make a difference whether you check or push. If he goes all in you have to call.

So it's up to you. I never fold this on the river with this type of stack.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree with that. I think that villain is unlikely to bluff with only a 1/2 PSB whereas he will not fold any non-bluff hand he would have otherwise bet. On the other hand he'll check behind with a lot of hands he would have called with (any A, weak 2-pair)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain is likely to bluff with only 1/2 psb behind.

Checking the river makes it obvious that you're scared of the heart. Maybe instead of pushing, put out a $5 bet. But What's the point, really? You folding if he raises all-in on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that we're trying to win that last $10 of villians. Villians stats make him appear to be more of a calling station than a bluff-monkey. His point, and my point, is that pushing will get that $10 to call more often with a worse hand than inducing a bluff by checking will. Even if it's marginal, it's still more money, and more +ev, IMO, and that makes it worth doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point. In my initial response when i wrote "I don't like the push" I was referring to a scenario where the stacks are bigger. My bad.

In this situation you are correct.