50NL 6m: OESD OOP in blind battle

[Jigsaws]

No stats on BB, nor has he played hands so far, but he strikes me as decent (buying in full, etc.).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Button ($86.10)
Hero ($51.60)
BB ($54.10)
UTG ($17.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $4</font>, Hero calls $2.

<font color="blue">Not folding this in a blind battle to a freaking minraise.</font>

Flop: ($8) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

<font color="blue">I think his bet is small enough to call profitably.</font>

Turn: ($18) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

<font color="blue">I check, because I feel leading out here would be incredibly transparent, and that he's only calling with a Q.</font>

River: ($18) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, planning to raise any bet.

<font color="blue">Leading out looks a lot like a missed check-raise. A lot a lot. So I check, thinking he'll bluff again or maybe try a thin value bet.</font>

[Dave I]

I don't mind the turn check but I think I lead the river for about $12. You will still get calls from weaker hands and avoid getting checked behind, which I think will happen often.

I also like leading the river better because he is either folding to the c/r or pushing and your beat/may have to fold the best hand more often than he just calls.

[Gravy]

You're c/r AI the turn if he bets, right?

[dregal]

Is there really any value in C/R the river? I mean he's not calling with a worse hand here.

[Thrahl]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there really any value in C/R the river? I mean he's not calling with a worse hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think hes folding a queen?

[n1nj4.br]

lead turn and river.

[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($18) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

<font color="blue">I check, because I feel leading out here would be incredibly transparent, and that he's only calling with a Q.</font>


[/ QUOTE ]

Why not push?

If he has a Q, he'll almost certainly still call. Calling with a set, or maybe even two pair, is also likely. He might even call with AA.

He clearly liked his hand preflop, and just about every card on the board should help him in some way or another, you just happen to be beating anything he could have.

I don't have it in front of me right now, but I had a hand last night where I should have pushed once I made the nut straight (villan had min-raised another player's bet on the flop). Instead I just PSB the river ($6, with about $20 stacks). Villan called, and it turns out he had made two pair on the flop.

[pokerchap]

if you are going to check the turn you most certainly have to raise the river.

if he has a queen he is going broke.
if he has a set/2pr he will donk off some money on the turn and maybe even on the river if you were to value bet.

[dregal]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there really any value in C/R the river? I mean he's not calling with a worse hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Meh...misread board and thought there was a 4 stright to the nut str8 out there.

I guess a c/r could be sexy here, but I think his calling range &gt; than his betting range.

[Jouster777]

I like the hand as played. If villain has a queen all the money is going in no matter what...its not as if he'll check the river. If villain has any decent hand he'll bet the river for value as he assumes hero wouldn't check 2x with a Q and we'll get at least as much as we could have on the turn. If villain has less than a decent hand, we weren't getting anything anyway.

[Roadstar]

Just bet the turn. His minraise preflop indicates he could be the type doing stupid things in blind battles.

Plus the fact that he min reraised likely means he high cards in his range = he prob hit at least a pair on this board and isn't folding that easily.

Finally, you want the pot be big enough for a shove on the river, just in case he has a lone Q.

[the machine]

i dont mind a check on the turn but i really think we have to lead the river. his calling range will be much bigger then the range he will lead out with on the river with 2 clubs out there.

[Jigsaws]

Okay. So I tried thinking about this for a while. Let's say... it's a blind battle. Still, his reraising range is not going to be ridiculously wide, since it basically never is at 50NL. Let's put it at AQ+, 99+. I think he bets this flop with anything he reraised with, so let's divide the kinds of hands he can have on the turn:

Set: 99-JJ, KK.
One pair: AK, AA.
Straight: QQ, AQ.

If I lead the turn for a PSB, AK/AA fold 90%, I think (if my read that he's decent is correct). Set calls to boat up. QQ probably shoves, and obviously AQ does.

If I check the turn, he probably checks anything but QQ/AQ.

So, river. If I had bet turn, I think he's folding anything but QQ to a river shove. So I get $18 most of the time. I think it's worth it to try a river check to induce a bluff, since he can't really call anything without a Q.

If I had checked turn, and I bet river for a PSB, I'm not so sure he pays me off every time, even with a set, so I get $18 *some* of the time.

If I check turn and check river, I think he bets his sets most of the time, but he might not bet them very strongly. I don't think he calls my check-raise much. So I get... let's say $9, some of the time.

Conclusion: betting turn is the superior play. I think there's value in checking the river after that, though.

[redCashion]

Definitely lead the turn. The beauty of blind battles is that when you make your hand, they will often not believe you all the way to the end. Time to start building a pot.

[orange]

I don't mind a turn lead, or a turn check for that matter. Depends on how often you guys are blind battling, etc. I think the river is a lead always though given turn action. He will check behind w. alot of hands here (J) but maybe call a small bet.