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View Full Version : NL10 PS semibluff push on flop with nutflush draw


10-25-2006, 02:28 PM
The Villain is 64/36/2 over 30 hands, I`m 20/8/5 at this table. What are your opinions about this play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($10.46)
SB ($7.32)
BB ($9.42)
UTG ($10.09)
MP ($6.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif.
[color=#CC3333]UTG raises to $0.45</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.45, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($0.97) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]UTG bets $1.2</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $10.01</font>, UTG calls $8.44 (All-In).

Turn: ($20.62) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($20.62) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $20.62

Vammakala
10-25-2006, 02:36 PM
If you're looking for fold equity, NL10 isn't the place. I don't particularly like the ATs cold call and the sample on the villain is quite insignificant. I wouldn't have trouble folding this hand preflop until better read (I set the minimum of hands to 50 so I won't "trust the stats" after 10 hands).

Cut your hand from your action forth - so we won't see the results or the cards that come. It helps with the objectivity towards the hand - easier to not care about the result when you don't know you missed. He probably had JJ+ here, right?

And pushing all-in here sucks because you will get called too often by hands you're coinflip or worse against and you will get a fold from worse hands only. Players at that level aren't laying down Jx.

ymu
10-25-2006, 02:46 PM
Your hand isn't strong enough to push here. You have 9 outs against AJ/33/88/JJ/AA, with the sets having a strong redraw to a full house, and 12 outs against QQ/KK. You have approximately zero FE against any of these hands.

You'll win less than a third of the time when you're called (EV approx $7), and win $2.10 when he folds. He has to fold much more than 50% to make this a good push.

He overbet the pot significantly with his flop lead. Unless you know that big bets are bluffs and small bets are "value" for this particular player, you have to assume he is protecting a strong hand from a flush draw - ie he's not going to fold.

If you think he'll stack off every time if another club hits you could justify a call here, but you're mostly better off just folding.

10-25-2006, 02:57 PM
Yeah, I usualy cut it out sry. He had KK. I only recently started playing online at the micro nlimits, but your right people call this with an overpair. I usualy fold AT Pf in this spot, but called due to his looseness. I would have folded this hand if I was him. Thanks for your reply Vammakala

10-25-2006, 03:14 PM
Thanks for taking the time and clarifying the FE here. Very helpfull reply YMU. I guess I felt tempted due to his looseness.