NL 50-K10 hits trips line check

[machine]

villan was 25.7/12.7/2.42 over 300 hands ish

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $58.80
UTG+1: $138.30
MP1: $39.60
MP2: $21.55
MP3: $54.10
CO: $47.95
Button: $18.30
SB: $46.15
bush sucks: $50

Pre-flop: (9 players) bush sucks is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, bush sucks checks.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($2.5, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">bush sucks raises to $8</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">bush sucks raises all-in $49.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB calls all-in $22.65</font>.
Uncalled bets: $1.85 returned to bush sucks.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($97.8, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $97.8)


River: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($97.8, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $97.8)


Results:
Final pot: $97.8

I figured villan would have raised AK definetly and KQ probably which meant only 66 and KJ beat me here. Do you see smaller kings and FDs here enough to make this profitable?

[pokerchap]

like you said only KJ, KQ ( maybe not even this, most people raise this from my experience) and 66 beat you.

he could easily be completing from the SB and pushing here with anything from K10- K6. FD's not so much i don't think.

[ama0330]

I'm not laying this down. I would THINK about laying it down, then push. This is so often a smaller king or a flush draw that you really can't get away. I've taken beats in this situation but I've also seen some truly bizzare hands at showdown after getting it in and dragged some nice pots.

Bad beat, move on.

[testaaja]

I don't see a flushdraw playing like this. Your hand really isn't good enough to go all in on this flop imo. KQ,KJ and MAYBE AK are DEFINITELY in his range, and I think that they are the worst kings he would play there (most of the time). Also 66 seems very likely. I'd fold to the $25 raise.

[Pokey]

For future reference, don't include how SB responded to your all-in. Also, eliminate the turn and river cards from the HH. Basically, everything that happened after you pushed all-in is irrelevant and detrimental to the discussion.

If villain has AK, KQ, KJ, K6, or 66, you're dead. Otherwise, you're doing fine. I agree that AK probably raises preflop, and KQ probably raises preflop. I think his opening range here is incredibly wide, including any K, any 6, any pocket pair, and any two hearts, so you're probably ahead right now. I like the raise in general -- you want to punish heart draws, and I can live with eliminating them rather than giving up a cheap suckout. Personally, I'd prefer a raise to $6, because I want the heart draws to stick around with improper odds, but I'm fine with the $8 raise.

Now for the big question: what is villain's range given his large but callable reraise? Aggressive players will play aggressively with good draws, and that will often mean a three-bet all-in with two hearts on this board. However, this three-bet wasn't all-in....it was pot-sized but leaving money behind. This bet wants a call, and that scares me. QQ, JJ, TT, A6, and even AA are going to slow down in the face of your big raise -- the K's on the board are really obvious, and villain is aggressive but not necessarily stupid.

The big problem here is that if you call this raise you are without a doubt pot-committed. That means that if you call here, you might as well push it all in on the flop and hope. In other words, you're risking about $40 here, not $17. Now, that's not the end of the world, and I'm not saying that's an automatic fold; rather, I'm saying that you need to be aware that you've got zero folding equity and you're playing for stacks in this one.

Personally, I think SB's raise here could come from either 66 or any K. Against that range, you've got a roughly EV-neutral move in pushing, since you're behind villain's range but you're getting an overlay from the pot. Mostly I push because I think Harrington was right -- there's always at least a 10% chance that a big bet is a bluff. You add in a 10% chance of air and this becomes a +EV move.

Oh, and I also like what this play does to your image at the table. Be prepared to have more folding equity in the future, because people will see that you're willing to go to the felt and won't be as interested in fighting you.

[lorez]

Given stats I'd say he'd raise preflop with AK, KQ. He'd complete from the SB with KJ, KT, Kxs, 66 (or any other mid to low PP) which are trouble. Given his post flop aggression he could be reraising you on the flop with a combo draw or any king to scare you off the hand but given his call of the all in I'm putting him on a made hand (although if I was him I'd be tempted to call with any good draw with only pot odds of ~ 4 - 1)

This is a hand where I think I'd be going broke and would be making notes if he did flip AK, KQ

[Reef]

meh, fine