Pederson closing the gap against Kyl? [Archive]

Uglyowl

10-25-2006, 08:45 AM

There have been a few new polls to suggest that Pederson has made up significant ground in the past few weeks against poker enemy Jon Kyl.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/az/arizona_senate_race-35.html

MagCFO

10-25-2006, 11:28 AM

That one just isn't going to happen. I wish it was, but it's a very, very, very long shot.

Jack Bando

10-25-2006, 12:18 PM

Kyl's lead is larger than the margin of error. He's keeping his seat.

faustusmedea

10-25-2006, 02:20 PM

Scroll down the page and look at the historical data on the polling. The gap is closing rapidly and the last two polls have Pederson behind 5% and 6%. With the current mood of the country, a slightly lower conservative turnout and a higher than average moderate turnout, those numbers might be overcome.

I bet this one is a lot closer than you imagine.

MagCFO

10-25-2006, 02:25 PM

I'd be willing to place a friendly wager that Kyl wins by more than 5%. Essentially, what I'm saying is I think the opposite will happen. The poll numbers are showing the lead is shrinking, but once the votes are taken, the results will show Kyl was way ahead.

This is just my guess and it's not what I want to happen, just FYI.

BruinEric

10-25-2006, 02:50 PM

A more likely picture emerges by saying: Kyl's lead in the most recent polling ranges from 5 to 16, and his challenger has not taken the lead in any recent poll.

I claimed in a thread earlier on this topic that Kyl's victory would be sealed by the passing of a border security bill. The fence bill passed, and Bush will sign in the next couple of weeks. IMHO, border issues here in the SouthWest were a major risk to Republicans "staying home" on election day. This bill is very helpful to closing that gap.

Kyl should be seen as a massive favorite, the only way he loses is a major sweep of Dems on election day heretofore unseen in AZ polling data. Pederson has a one or two outer.

03 Z4

10-25-2006, 03:14 PM

IIRC, history indicates AZ to be very Rep-lean.

Only reason this might be a last-minute upset is bc of voter disregard for Rep in general now.

faustusmedea

10-25-2006, 03:32 PM

All good points, but I think you might be discounting the enormous frustration over a police action in mesopotamia. That coupled with a seemingly intractable party in power could lead to all sorts of mayhem on Nov 7.

Of course, I also believe Karl Rove has Osama hanging in a freezer somewhere like the dude in Goodfellas and will produce him just in time to queer the whole enchilada.

Meanwhile here is my image of Mr. Kyl
http://killinghandpoker.com/photos/kylocutus175.jpg

Resistance does seem a bit futile at this point

Wake up CALL

10-25-2006, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I also believe Karl Rove has Osama hanging in a freezer somewhere like the dude in Goodfellas and will produce him just in time to queer the whole enchilada.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha ha, you and Nancy P both do! I never laughed so hard when she said that was likely to happen just prior to the election, only difference is I'm pretty sure she was serious.

spidey74

10-25-2006, 05:47 PM

Just sent Jim Pederson a letter.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=7801873&page=0&vc=1

MiltonFriedman

10-25-2006, 06:22 PM

How closely do the poll numbers track the border issue ? That has to be THE issue in Arizona.

PocketQueens90

10-25-2006, 06:32 PM

I dont know about the poll numbers or anything but i do live in arizona and the border issue does get a lot of attention. It also seems like Kyl has a lot more advertising. Just about every day i see a commercial about how Pederson has sworn he has never filed for bankruptcy 5 straught years or something, when he actually has. The message being that he broke the law so you can't trust him. They're pretty bad. Pederson has some but not as effective i dont think.

Uglyowl

10-25-2006, 08:42 PM

These guys have been dead on with some stuff, other stuff kinda iffy. Hope they are right that there is some major offensives in the works.

http://www.gambling911.com/Arizona-Senate-Race-Online-Gambling-Jon-Kyl-102506.html

addictontilt

10-25-2006, 08:45 PM

NH SIR!!!! GO GAMBLING 911 GO!!!! /images/graemlins/heart.gif

U2ForNow

10-25-2006, 08:57 PM

This will be the first year that I will not be voting 100% republican. I will be voting against Kyl and many that I talk to claim to feel the same way. It may be a closer race than we think.

Kevmath

10-25-2006, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
These guys have been dead on with some stuff, other stuff kinda iffy. Hope they are right that there is some major offensives in the works.

http://www.gambling911.com/Arizona-Senate-Race-Online-Gambling-Jon-Kyl-102506.html

[/ QUOTE ]

If Debbie Richardson's behind it, I wouldn't feel so confident.

faustusmedea

10-26-2006, 10:26 AM

There is an online contribution site dedicated to poker players against Kyl. ActBlue allows you to set up special contribution groups for democratic candidates and monitor how much is raised.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pokerplayers

faustusmedea

10-26-2006, 12:13 PM

Here is an interesting turn. Seems the techie lefties are doing a google bombing campaign against 50 republicans. In Kyl's case its raising the positioning of an interesting article from the sandal-wearing crowd in AZ.

http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/Issues/2006-04-13/news/feature_full.html

spidey74

10-26-2006, 02:43 PM

From a Jon Kyl having a 29 point lead in the beginning of the year down to a 5 or 6 point lead!!! We can do this. Start getting involved. Phone calls, letters, e-mails. Contact friends, family, ex-coworkers, anyone you can think of. If we can get Jim Pederson to take a stance and show he is on our side, I really think we can pull this one out!

Poofler

10-26-2006, 02:51 PM

I hear Kyl used to adopt cute kittens and dissect them for medical experiments. Spread the word.

coachkf

10-26-2006, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is an online contribution site dedicated to poker players against Kyl. ActBlue allows you to set up special contribution groups for democratic candidates and monitor how much is raised.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pokerplayers

[/ QUOTE ]

Whipped out my credit card and made a quick donation. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Uglyowl

10-26-2006, 05:54 PM

Damn, someone stepped up with a couple grand. Props to whoever did.

Recipient Donors Total $ All pages
Jim Pederson 6 $2,355.00 $15,107.18

Even if it is only a few $, step up to the plate.

Uglyowl

10-26-2006, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is an online contribution site dedicated to poker players against Kyl. ActBlue allows you to set up special contribution groups for democratic candidates and monitor how much is raised.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pokerplayers

[/ QUOTE ]

Whipped out my credit card and made a quick donation. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

With a click of your mouse, did you lose your house?