View Full Version : ... and that is why I try to stick to $1 bets...
Just installed Powerbet through AKAs site and signed up for their 100% $300 bonus. At first I figured I'd try and clear it quickly with $10 bets at Pontoon, which has an extremely low house edge of 0.38% I figured with a $300 cushion my chances of flying through the WR without ever approaching my original deposit were good. Well 20 hands or so into the bloody thing I was down from $600 to $450, so I decided to cut down the risk and drop to $5 bets. From there on it was a slow and steady decline all the way down to $100, complete with unbeleivably shady software pauses before a ten fell every time I went for a 5 csrd trick. I was only halfway done with the WR at that point and they have an even bigger second deposit bonus for those who bust the first, so I bet my last $100 on one hand and obviously lost it.
That is roughly 100 bets down after 1000. I don't know why I insist on constantly trying RTG casinos, I've never come close to winning at any of them and the games never seem legitimate to me. Yet out of stupidity, I am going to try this hellhole again with the second deposit bonus I mentioned. You'd better beleive I will be grinding out $1 bets like I should have done in the first place. I'm far too unlucky to have ever deviated from this course in the first place.
Edit: Actually their second bonus is 30xb+d, making it 120xb with BJ counting at 50%... not even worth it. GOD DAMNIT!!!
grando
10-25-2006, 03:01 AM
this sounds like me after doing powerbet, down to the losing tons of bets and finding out about the stupid second deposit
DaNcInGgOoN
10-25-2006, 08:19 AM
Sounds like a really bad run... ;(
but another question, is this bonus cashable?
godofgamblers
10-25-2006, 08:23 AM
I did $10 bets and was up around $300 until my last 2k of WR. I lost it all then.
caguma
10-25-2006, 08:40 AM
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Sounds like a really bad run... ;(
but another question, is this bonus cashable?
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It looks like yes, but to get the bonus you have to withdrawl an amount greater than the sum of the deposit and bonus.
1) Larger bets = greater EV. So calling yourself stupid for not making $1 bets makes no sense.
2) All bonuses at Crystal Palace casinos are -EV. This is because there is a significant chance that they won't pay out winnings. They are a scumbag operation, and RTG lets them get away with murder. Do not ever play at a Oliver Curran/Warren Cloud/Crystal Palace/Doloplex Holdings casino.
rsigley
10-25-2006, 11:01 AM
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1) Larger bets = greater EV. So calling yourself stupid for not making $1 bets makes no sense.
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wrong
large bets means more variance which means a greater range from outside the expected value you'd end up (either positive or negative)
expected value deals with house advantage and wagering requirement, bet size has nothing to do with it
ev in this case is bonus - (WR*HA)
Cashed in my comp points and realized that $5 is the minimum bet anyway, so I guess that was nearly unavoidable. Maybe I'd have turned around with my last 100, but I don't think so. There was never any significant forward progress whatsoever, it didn't even seem possible.
rsigley, I think the concept of increasing EV by betting large has to do with the fact that when you bust out from any given casino you do not have to finish your WR. That's what I've been told anyway. Now that I think about it though, wouldn't that just increase your hourly rate and not your EV?
lunatic4
10-25-2006, 11:12 AM
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1) Larger bets = greater EV. So calling yourself stupid for not making $1 bets makes no sense.
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wrong
large bets means more variance which means a greater range from outside the expected value you'd end up (either positive or negative)
expected value deals with house advantage and wagering requirement, bet size has nothing to do with it
ev in this case is bonus - (WR*HA)
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But if your loss is capped at whatever you deposit, would that not increase the EV because the positive range has now increased while the negative stayed the same?
Jeff_B
10-25-2006, 11:13 AM
KSOT I too noticed the pauses but when I was playing blackjack on powerbet. This never seemed to happen when dleaing the first two cards just when double downing on 11 or something similiar and seemed to be always followed by me cursing.
IMO this group is shady.. I made $700+ on the second deposit bonus at powerbet but my account was closed since I won.
Basically I say f this group they should be shut down.
Ken_AA
10-25-2006, 11:16 AM
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1) Larger bets = greater EV. So calling yourself stupid for not making $1 bets makes no sense.
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wrong
large bets means more variance which means a greater range from outside the expected value you'd end up (either positive or negative)
expected value deals with house advantage and wagering requirement, bet size has nothing to do with it
ev in this case is bonus - (WR*HA)
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Sir, I'm sorry but you need to do some research.
It increases your EV slightly, and only if you factor in a number of bonuses. Each individual bonus has the same EV as long as you are playing optimally.
Ken
I_C_ALL
10-25-2006, 11:17 AM
Actually you are incorrect. There was an exceeding large thread on this. The reason behind the larger EV is because since these games are inherently negative EV and only become positive by the bonus, if the bonus is credited in full prior to playing and you bust out, you don't actually finish the wagering requirement. Think about it, once the bonus is credited, every hand we play, we lose .005 times bet amount for BJ or .0038 for pontoon. If you bust, you don't have to lose the next .005, which we only do to withdraw our funds. So in essense, you received the full bonus without the playthrough.
Your variance is definitely increased too and for most this is not a viable option, but according to skalansky or mason (i forget which) the highest EV is accomplished using 1/2 of your balance(not bankroll) so you can take advantage of split/double opportunities.
Use the search button, you will find the thread. Its pretty old, but explains much better than I do.
lunatic4, good point. So it does increase the EV, but in my case RoR means far more since I literally have almost no good casinos left to whore here in the banned state of New York.
Jeff B, at first I thought it was just for when I would "buy" a card since it was adding in the extra bet, but then I noticed it happening every single time I hit for a 5th card. I definitely was dealt bust cards in those situations far more than could be expected. Honestly this is what came to mind:
http://wizardofodds.com/casinos/casinobar.html
I wish I had kept track like they did.
Antti
10-25-2006, 11:40 AM
EV considerations aside, I also did the powerbet bonus with $10 bets, because I wanted the variance, because they only let you cashout <D or >B+D. Therefore, just losing some of the bonus money won't be enough. I ended up down to $145 when I finished the WR, unfortunately.
adios
10-25-2006, 04:20 PM
PowerBet was a vacum tube for my money /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Actually my wife does the casino bonuses, she tried $1 a hand and quickly realized it wasn't worth her time. She bets $5 a hand basically and clears em fairly fast FWIW.
Jeff_B
10-25-2006, 05:33 PM
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lunatic4, good point. So it does increase the EV, but in my case RoR means far more since I literally have almost no good casinos left to whore here in the banned state of New York.
Jeff B, at first I thought it was just for when I would "buy" a card since it was adding in the extra bet, but then I noticed it happening every single time I hit for a 5th card. I definitely was dealt bust cards in those situations far more than could be expected. Honestly this is what came to mind:
http://wizardofodds.com/casinos/casinobar.html
I wish I had kept track like they did.
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wow that was interesting to see how people such as lawyers can not read.. although they may just be trying to cover all their ground (with respect to his having actual code)
Def fishy but I would like to think that most casinos benefit more by not cheating. Maybe not. I am not an expert.
aka23
10-25-2006, 07:19 PM
Overall results are near expectations for persons who signed up through the link. There were some big winners and some big losers. I always use progressive betting at RTG casinos. Maybe it helps, maybe it does not. I ended at ~$900 while playing through the Powerbet bonus on BJ using this method. I ended at ~$1200 when I played the $400 Shark bonus before this one.
aka23
10-25-2006, 07:21 PM
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1) Larger bets = greater EV. So calling yourself stupid for not making $1 bets makes no sense.
2) All bonuses at Crystal Palace casinos are -EV. This is because there is a significant chance that they won't pay out winnings. They are a scumbag operation, and RTG lets them get away with murder. Do not ever play at a Oliver Curran/Warren Cloud/Crystal Palace/Doloplex Holdings casino.
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I don't think that is accurate. You should be okay at the first casino in the group. The problem comes with signing up at other ones after being labeled an "advantage player."
matt85
10-26-2006, 02:15 PM
Hello Ive just done pretty much that with both SkyBet Vegas and Ritz Club in the last 24 hours.
The EV of these two should be close to +£300 but Ive managed to lose £250 flat betting £2 a go. So -£550 away from my EV. Variance or something sinister?
I hate BJ with a passion.
Jeff_B
10-26-2006, 03:10 PM
stupid thing - how can i tell if its an RTG casino?
Look at a site's FAQ and see what software they use. All RTG casinos look alike.
This is my official bitch and moan thread.
First I go like 1/9 on those damn microgaming bonuses we've all been obsessed with, then I lose all $600 at powerbet, and just now I tried attacking Casino Vega like a sticky a bunch of times.
Lost my first $150 deposit at blackjack, lost the first $300 bonus on one roulette spin betting 19 numbers big, lost my second $150 deposit on one roulette spin betting 19 numbers big, and... surprise surprise... lost the second $300 bonus on one roulette spin betting 19 numbers big. I run SO [censored] BAD >_<
Frogic
10-28-2006, 03:13 PM
I don't feel bad about losses unless I found out I was doing some kind of -EV betting along the way. Example, early on I did a jazz casino(ABC Island) before reading about suspecions of it being rigged. At the time it was the largest bonus I'd ever done and I wasn't so happy about it.
Frogic
I think you still have to clear the initial deposit and bonus WR for withdrawel at Casino Vega before you can start on the second deposit, so I think the second deposit is very marginal EV if yuo busted teh first time before clearing.
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I think you still have to clear the initial deposit and bonus WR for withdrawel at Casino Vega before you can start on the second deposit, so I think the second deposit is very marginal EV if yuo busted teh first time before clearing.
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Man oh man, I wish I knew that before I redeposited another $150 there 20 minutes ago for the "halloween weekend bonus" which they obviously crafted specifically for my donating ass. You should see the joke of an email, it's the most unofficial looking thing I've ever seen in my life.
If what you say is true I'd have about 25,000 WR if I hit this time. Yeesh! No matter though, as I'm sire I'll lose both roulette coinflips again, because god hates me and online casinos are teh rigged.
Setting my usual goal of ~$600, I lost coinflip 1 for $375, amazingly won coinflip 2 for $150, lost coinflip 3 for $360, busto. That's $1445 including all the bonuses that I blew at Casino Vega today, all the while setting a very reasonable and seemingly attainable goal for myself. Whoopie.
I did a few sticky bonuses today and had my first +$1000 day ever. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
kyleb
10-28-2006, 09:46 PM
I did two sticky bonuses today and cashed about 1400 GBP. Two weeks ago I lost $16,000 in a single day.
Business as usual.
Jesus kyleb... I can't even imagine what crazy sites you play on that allow you to win and lose such insane amounts.
Anyway folks, I whined about all of my bad luck, so it's only fair that I share my good luck now. Despite being anally fisted by Casino Vega on 3 separate deposits and not having much extra money to toss around at the moment, I took a chance and deposited yet another $150 for the latest 300% offer they sent to my email. Put the first $150 on the same numbers I've been doing the whole time and missed. Put the $450 bonus on those numbers yet again and BOOM, finally doubled past my $$$ goal. Currently sitting on $900 and am planning to grind the living daylights out of the WR with bets so small you couldn't use them to buy a pack of gum!
Barring any unforseen misfortunes, SHIP IT!
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