FT 25NL - What do you make of this?

[Leviathan101]

Villian is developing TAG like stats but over a small sample size. 22.2/7.4/2.5 over 27 hands. No other reads, and I haven't seen him showdown a hand. (cause I haven't been totally paying attention. I don't know if he's actually gotten to showdown.)


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.20
UTG+1: $22.15
Hero: $26.15
MP2: $23.50
MP3: $12.40
CO: $20
Button: $18.55
SB: $8.40
BB: $21.55

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $1</font>, Hero calls, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.35, 4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($12.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($12.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 is all-in $17.15</font>, Hero ???

How often do you think I'm good here?
Do you think is more likely to be Qx or TT-JJ, more often then anything else?
Is this a +ev call? I'm getting about 1.5:1, so I have to be right most of the time to make this a good call.

If I had bet the turn and was called, is this an auto-fold? Should I have bet the turn to better define where I am?
Do you think a turn check induces bluffs or a second best hand value betting? Does the bet size make any sense for either of these?

That's all my questions for now.

[wake_up]

There is a good chance that you are beat here but I would have definately bet the turn.

[OneFive]

I had the exact same thing happen to me earlier today. I think you are behind the majority of the time. IMO Villans who do this have the following thought process: on the flop, wow, trips, better slow play, you bet he calls. turn: he bet last time, i'll let him do it again. river: he didn't bet, i have a huge hand, i should win a lot of money... all in, maybe he'll think i'm bluffing!!

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a good chance that you are beat here but I would have definately bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about that.

Why bet turn?

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Yaboosh]

This really looks like someone who missed a checkraise on the turn and is trying to compensate. Without a read I turbofold.

[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
I had the exact same thing happen to me earlier today. I think you are behind the majority of the time. IMO Villans who do this have the following thought process: on the flop, wow, trips, better slow play, you bet he calls. turn: he bet last time, i'll let him do it again. river: he didn't bet, i have a huge hand, i should win a lot of money... all in, maybe he'll think i'm bluffing!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This line makes a lot of sense coming from most villians at this limit. On the other hand, from a player with a decent level of aggresion, I can also easily see a bluff here.

Based on his play, what range do you think he has?

I got results below in white.
<font color="white">
In the end, I convinced myself to call and he showed me AQ.

I think it was basically deciding whether this is a bluff or not. I think a lot of the clues pointed to the fact it was a value bet, but I didn't stop and think about it long enough.
</font>

[whyzze]

Making a pot sized bet on that flop is spewing. Only sets and boats are calling that bet. Lead for less. your $4 bet tells me "im scared of a queen please fold".

I would lead for 2ish, check/fold turn, and maybe call a small river bet.

[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
Making a pot sized bet on that flop is spewing. Only sets and boats are calling that bet. Lead for less. your $4 bet tells me "im scared of a queen please fold".

I would lead for 2ish, check/fold turn, and maybe call a small river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is vulnerable to overs, and I don't really want a bunch of people tagging along. However it's also quite possible I flopped the best hand.
Why do you bet 1/2 the pot? Pot control? Do you think players will fold the same hand for 2 and 4 bets?

[orange]

This is an easy fold. The flop is dry, he overbets the pot, etc. You are toast.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Making a pot sized bet on that flop is spewing. Only sets and boats are calling that bet. Lead for less. your $4 bet tells me "im scared of a queen please fold".

I would lead for 2ish, check/fold turn, and maybe call a small river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is vulnerable to overs, and I don't really want a bunch of people tagging along. However it's also quite possible I flopped the best hand.
Why do you bet 1/2 the pot? Pot control? Do you think players will fold the same hand for 2 and 4 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]


I bet 1/2 pot for:

a) pot control + fold equity (1/2 pot can seem like you want people to call your set)
b) overs dont want to mess with a possible set so they should fold
b) this is small enough that pairs may call, 3s, 99-22 even.
c) 3s, 99-22 will almost always check the turn
d) these hands will frequently make a small river bet with hands that you beat.

but mostly pot control