(NL50) standard river shove?

[Sh@i'tan]

Preflop was a misclick...no reads. I figure KQ/AQ is calling here, and i don't think a set/2pr would play that passively on flop/turn.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $.25/$.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG+1 ($66.50)
CO ($50.45)
Button($52.85)
SB ($67.15)
Hero ($65.70)
UTG ($77.15)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $1.75</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.5</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15.50</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $31</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $54.45</font>, UTG+1 calls.

[ronitonline]

KQ and AQ will be here much more often then QJ or Q10. I like it.

[stsharp413]

A lot of players just flat call (the absolute worst thing to do) with a hand like middle pair on boards similar to this. At least that's from my own personal experience. When they hit that 2-outer for trips they will very often get paid handsomely, but that only makes up for the money they've lost chasing it before. Except for when you're against 8-9 or A-K. Praise the misclick here.

It's a mega -EV move to chase and will lose you money in the long run (and in this guy's case, a lot of it). Way to keep leading.

[Vammakala]

I hate it. I don't have problem valuebetting river and then perhaps calling the minraise, but pushing is generally pretty spewy imo.

In my opinion, this could be a variety of things. AK seeing how you wanna dump money on it, QJ being cute. JJ/TT slowplaying.

The only hands you beat here are KQ and AQ and while they're relatively likely, I think not likely enough to push.

I think the trouble originated from the preflop call, I don't like calling offsuite connectors OOP for 4 BB against Early position raiser. Just fold preflop and get on with it. In fact, calling with suited connector doesn't feel so good here either, although it would be better (lot more potential when you can flop hands like pair+fd, pair+sd, fd, oesfd instead of just probable midpairs and possibly some straightdraws. Even top pairs might not be good).

Just toss it.

[stsharp413]

But would you agree that slowplaying the set or 2 pair on this board is an incorrect play? AK, in my mind, is the only possible hand my opponent could have that has me beat.

I'd have a hard time believing the boat unless I knew the guy to be a problem chaser or a guy who will trap with just about anything.

As for AK, I'd hesitate slowplaying the whole way down there as well. In all, I think pushing on the river is a fine play.

[Vammakala]

The fact that it's incorrect play doesn't mean it's not done. People play sets like this all the time. The board isn't exactly typical for it, but that doesn't really mean anything. I doubt he'd reraise and then call AI with a bare Q. He'd definitely call with it, but people are passive. Even if he does go broke with bare Q, he still probably has you beat more often than not when he calls you down.

[pokerchap]

just call the river. if you only think 2 hands are going to call isn't it a pretty bad decision?

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
just call the river. if you only think 2 hands are going to call isn't it a pretty bad decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

if those two hands make up a large part of his range, then no i do not think this is a bad decision.

also vam i alrdy acknowledged that pf is spew vs an unknown.