NL50 - Passive line with JJ

[PBJaxx]

Villain is 18/11/1.8 over 130 hands. I haven't seen him get out of line and this is the first time he has 3bet me. I most likely have the best hand, but I don't want to build a big pot when it is quite likely that I am way behind. I almost checked the turn to induce a bluff on the riv, but I decided no to let him draw for free with overs. How is this line?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $42.70
Hero: $55.60
SB: $186.60
BB: $66.30

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6.25</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif ($12.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $8</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($28.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $24</font>

[wake_up]

I think this is pretty good. PF is fine with position. Flop and turn are good.

[CappyAA]

This is good as lots of villains will interpret your raise as a steal and do this with broadway cards, suited connectors, or air. That said, if you are check-raised on the turn, you are probably beat but your bet was large enough that you can't fold the turn to any c/r.

[HouseCalls]

Does the turn bet need to be this big?

If your read is right and he is on UI overs then he has 6 outs. He is 12% to hit on the river 7.3:1. Seems like a 1/2 pot size bet will give him only 3:1 so he will be making a big mistake to chase if he is behind but you won't be losing as much when he is ahead and you won't be tied to the pot if he c/r the turn.

[Vammakala]

I think I might just check behind for pot control here and call a non A/K river. The problem is that the reraising range of a typical NL50 villain is QQ+/AK.

You won't need to bet the turn so big in my opinion. Something like $20 will certainly suffice, it takes away all odds for him to draw, probably even half the pot would be enough here, but I think balancing it upwards towards $20 is better.

The problem here is that betting big will make him lay down AK and call with anything that beats you. If he's being tricky, he might reraise you with TT/99 too - who knows. Calling will then be very very ackward.

So I'm thinking really taking the passive line and just checking behind on turn, planning to call a bluff on the river OR bet less on turn, planning on checking behind on river if called (that can't be good and I doubt he'd pay off valuebet on river w/ missed overs).

[PBJaxx]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the turn bet need to be this big?

If your read is right and he is on UI overs then he has 6 outs. He is 12% to hit on the river 7.3:1. Seems like a 1/2 pot size bet will give him only 3:1 so he will be making a big mistake to chase if he is behind but you won't be losing as much when he is ahead and you won't be tied to the pot if he c/r the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. At the time, I didn't want to induce a C/R from a tricky player, but this may be giving too much credit. 1/2-2/3 pot is proobably a better move in the long run.

-Jaxx

[ronitonline]

No raising on that flop?

[Vammakala]

I don't like raising the flop either. His range is quite small here usually and it'll just fold worse hands (pretty much just AK) and get a repop from better hands. Calling here might make him more cautious (like it did here) - also a reason to check behind on turn for pot control, he could be checking QQ to you.

[pokerchap]

does anyone like a check to watch him bluff AK on river?

[Thrahl]

[ QUOTE ]
does anyone like a check to watch him Value bet QQ/KK/AA on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

I don't much care for this turn bet. I'm happy to check behind keep the pot small and see what villain does on the river.

[PoorTom]

seriously, why is everyone so happy to give free cards to overcards? you're probably not getting more action out of AK etc unless he hits the turn or river. why give him the chance for free? plus if he's got QQ+ i want to know on the flop, not after i get check-raised all in on the turn. this is a flop re-raise all day every day.

as played i'd bet less on the turn. checking the turn would be really horrible imho. if we're ahead (and we probably are) he's likely got a very weak draw to overcards (or maybe a mid pair, and he's even further behind). we want him to chase to max our ev, and absent a read he's unlikely to chase for this much.

also if we are behind and he pushes with queens or better, we've got not much chance of getting away by betting this much. something like $15-20 is better depending on what you think he'll call with overcards.