NL25 QQ vs raised pot from someone who never raises

[wims]

Villain is 33/1.6/0.53 after 450 hands, as you can see he almost never ever raise preflop. I figured his range for preflop raise might be as little as aa-qq and ak . Should i really raise (or call for that matter) preflop when i put him on a range like that ?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $1.5</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5.1</font>, 4 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($10.8, 2 players)
MP2 checks.
Hero ?

[kurto]

I have played against people with these stats. Oddly enough there hands are not as defined as I always think they will be. He still has AK and AQ in his range. And he is OPENING the betting so more small pocket pairs are possible then you think.

With queens I would vary raising or calling and playing postflop... I prefer the raise because they will often reraise again with AA/KK or call with weaker hands.

Re flop- that's pretty horrible. He's still ahead with aces and you and the other high PP besides Queens just tripled up.

The problem is having reraised, I have to bet. You are representing what you FEAR he has.

If he calls... check the turn and if you're religious pray for a 10.

** Other side... I like a call. You have position. See the texture of the flop. Play accordingly. If he's tight and passive postflop, he will often Cont. bet but then slow down on the turn if he feels weak.

having reraised though... I can't help but bet the flop.

[RAHZero]

I check here and fold to a turn bet. A player like this is ahead of you 100% of the time here. He's either slowplaying AA, has AK and caught the K, or has JJ and hit his set. I can't see him holding anything you beat, and I don't see him folding either.

[pokerchap]

i can't imagine what you are beating. possibley 1010 or maybe a smaller PP. maybe fire a small bet here and shutdown if he calls?

[bmk67]

Re-raise preflop is fine, though against guys like this I might just smooth call to control the pot size.

I don't think I'm betting this flop, and I don't think I'm calling too many bets either - this is why I'd avoid re-raising him with position.

450 hands is not a huge sample, but big enough to make the 1.6% PFR at least in the right neighborhood. Even if it's off by quite a bit, and his raising range is actually more like JJ+,AQo+,AQs+(4.2%), our pot equity is 35% on this flop. Take AQ out of the range, and we're at 23%.

The only way we're ahead of his range is if his range includes pairs down to 88/77 and AJs+/AJo/KQo, which is a much wider range than his PFR% implies.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise preflop is fine, though against guys like this I might just smooth call to control the pot size.

I don't think I'm betting this flop, and I don't think I'm calling too many bets either - this is why I'd avoid re-raising him with position.

450 hands is not a huge sample, but big enough to make the 1.6% PFR at least in the right neighborhood. Even if it's off by quite a bit, and his raising range is actually more like JJ+,AQo+,AQs+(4.2%), our pot equity is 35% on this flop. Take AQ out of the range, and we're at 23%.

The only way we're ahead of his range is if his range includes pairs down to 88/77 and AJs+/AJo/KQo, which is a much wider range than his PFR% implies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those hands are helpful. Is there some list where someone figured out what 1% vs 4% vs 8% means?

I still offer... I had 300 hands on someone who was raising 2%. I watched a hand to showdown and saw he had raising UTG with KQs.

Also- 300 hands might mean 2-3 nights of play. I've been at 4 tables and at each table had stats ranging for 25/6 to 9/2 (at different tables, that is) depending on the aggressiveness of the table and the hands I'm getting.

[ymu]

PFR of 1.6% literally means QQ+ with the occasional AK thrown in, but this is hugely misleading. Some players just love to limp AA/KK, don't [/b]re[/b]raise with big pockets or AK, don't raise AQ+ or 99-JJ after limpers, don't raise anything out of the blinds, etc etc. These factors can easily turn a 5% raising range into 1.6% - especially over a smallish sample, and moreso if it was gathered at fairly aggressive tables (does his AF/notes suggest that he's trappy?). Do our notes say anything about his normal EP raise, and what this slightly over-sized one means?

FWIW, I'd be tempted to check behind on this flop and pray for a T on the turn, but unless he's trappy I think it might be better to bet out enough to suggest AA/KK wanting to push AQ off a gutshot draw but hoping that AK calls you. If you get raised, easy dump - if you get called, the rest of the hand plays itself I think.


**You can get the hands which match a given preflop % from poker stove, but for the reasons stated above it's not necessarily a reliable guide.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Those hands are helpful. Is there some list where someone figured out what 1% vs 4% vs 8% means?

[/ QUOTE ]

From poker stove:

AA-QQ=1.4% (~0.45% each)
4.2%= 99+,AQs+,AKo
8.3%= 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

But these are only a rough guide - it's going to depend a lot on position (for some players), action before them, who's already limped, who's yet to act, etc etc.

[Vammakala]

I think check behind on this flop isn't bad. He's very passive and probably won't bluff turn if he didn't hit the jackpot there. Many of these ridiculously passive players aren't necessary all that weaktight postflop.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
Those hands are helpful. Is there some list where someone figured out what 1% vs 4% vs 8% means?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't seen anything like that. I estimated the range with pokerstove. I'm sure it's very villian dependant.

I suspect for very small and very large PFR%, pokerstove does a fair job of approximating a range. I do know that if I use my PFR%, the stove isn't even really close to my preflop range - it includes hands I wouldn't raise with your money, except if I'm stealing - and it doesn't include hands that I will raise with position. Maybe pokerstove isn't aware of the situational nature of NL. Maybe my preflop range sucks. Maybe hand charts suck in no-limit in general. Maybe I suck at poker? I don't know; sample size too small. ;-)

[ QUOTE ]
I still offer... I had 300 hands on someone who was raising 2%. I watched a hand to showdown and saw he had raising UTG with KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming KQs is at the very bottom of his range, QQ+,AKs,AQs,KQs is 2.3%. Maybe he's not positionally aware. Maybe he thinks KQs is a premium hand UTG. Maybe your sample size sucks? ;-) Who knows?

As poker is a partial information game, we make decisions based on what we know, and what we can deduce based on a villian's observed play.

If I observe that a player is raising 2% of his hands over 30+ orbits in a full ring game, I'm not going to have much choice but put him on a big hand - until I see him show KQs or something else out of line. If that's weak-tight, so be it - it's not exploitable by a 33/1.6/0.53 villian.

[ QUOTE ]
Also- 300 hands might mean 2-3 nights of play. I've been at 4 tables and at each table had stats ranging for 25/6 to 9/2 (at different tables, that is) depending on the aggressiveness of the table and the hands I'm getting.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt.

The point I was trying to make here is that the only way hero is ahead of villian's range is if villian's PFR% over the last 450 hands aren't even close to reality (i.e. off by a factor of 4+). I don't have any idea was the standard deviation is going to be for PFR% over this small sample size, but I'm not optimistic that it's big enough to make a bet here +EV.

However, I would tend to believe his PT stats unless I observe play to lead me to think otherwise. His PT stats tell me he's probably a passive check-calling fish who woke up with a monster. I don't think we lose much value if any by trying to get to a cheap showdown against this guy.

[HumanACtor]

[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise preflop is fine, though against guys like this I might just smooth call to control the pot size.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that with an aggro factor of .53 it will be easy enough to control the pot after the flop, in position.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't seen anything like that. I estimated the range with pokerstove. I'm sure it's very villian dependant.

I suspect for very small and very large PFR%, pokerstove does a fair job of approximating a range. I do know that if I use my PFR%, the stove isn't even really close to my preflop range - it includes hands I wouldn't raise with your money, except if I'm stealing - and it doesn't include hands that I will raise with position. Maybe pokerstove isn't aware of the situational nature of NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think Poker Stove ranks hands according to how well they do all-in against a random hand after 5 cards are dealt. This has little to nothing to do with real NL play. Beyond the top 2% or so, I'm not sure the % help very much - observing whether they're more likely to raise with a weak A or a small suited connector/PP is much more helpful.


This article (http://www.cs.cmu.edu/People/mummert/poker/) offers an alternative to the Sklansky hand rankings, but it's also of limited value for choosing starting hand ranges - it is based on a maniac betting all the way to the river and seeing how well each hand stands up to those which have stayed with him all the way, so small pockets and any-two-suited/connected cards look a lot better than they are because of hitting 2 outers and backdoor straights and flushes which no sane player would be betting on.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Re-raise preflop is fine, though against guys like this I might just smooth call to control the pot size.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that with an aggro factor of .53 it will be easy enough to control the pot after the flop, in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken.

[kurto]

I wanted to just add to this because I had almost the same hand but played it crappily because I think I thought I was running good...

Essentially-
$50 Stars table.

I had ~$85. Villain had $50 or so.

I have KK UTG+1. I raise it to $2.5.

folds to MP Slightly loose/passive (he's like 25/3) guy who reraises me to $7. I've NEVER seen him reraise and I have a few hundred hands from multiple sessions on him.

It folds around to me and SHOULD have 3bet or pushed (though I doubt it would have had any bearing.) I smoothcall.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif

I lead out, he minraises me and I should have folded but I didn't. the rest is too ugly to tell.

The point is... Other then KK... any hand this guy would reraise with... ie ALL Broadway Pairs beat me. I do not beleive this guy is reraising a tight UTG raiser with AK.

This is a horrible flop for Kings after a reraise from a tight raiser.