AQs, Fold or Push Situation?

[Roadstar]

100NL Full Ring - just taking a shot at moving up so thats why I haven't reloaded..

No strong reads yet - UTG villain is about 40/12 over a small sample of hands.

Stacks - Hero ~$70, Villain covers (effective stacks ~$70 then)

Preflop

Hero gets A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in UTG+1

UTG calls, Hero raises to 5, MP2, CO, Button, BB calls (rest fold), UTG min reraises to $9, Hero calls, rest call.

Flop

Q /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets $5, Hero?!?!??!

Pot is ~ $50 now, do I push here?

Thanks

[ColdSteel]

I'll see one more card (and one more action) before committing to the felt.

[Yaboosh]

Take another look at the action and reconsider.

[Sir Winalot]

Fullring, ugh. I think this is a veeerry easy check. Maybe fold or call if someone bets, whatever feeling you have. I play 6-max though so don't take my advice too given.

[ColdSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
Take another look at the action and reconsider.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what this comment is supposed to suggest.

Are you recommending folding getting 11:1 with TPTK? Bad idea. Are you recommending pushing or raising less? Bad idea. We have a very marginal hand here with a limp-minreraiser and a billion callers.

I stand by what I said. Maybe you could elaborate.

[Roadstar]

I know we don't want to go broke with TPTK, but any good sized raise pretty much means a push here.

For those saying wait and see, we call the $5 and then reevaluate the turn? Which we're pushing most of the time right?

How do we interpret villains min limp rr? if its AA/KK then hes got me right where he wants me...

[Yaboosh]

So you gonna fold to a raise? You have less than a potsized bet. Giving 67, any 5 or 8 or Q, any medium pocket pair 12:1 odds to hit doesn't seem smart just because you think that someone might have a set or KK/AA.

[robinmbuk]

Given the stack:pot ratio i think this could well be a push. Trouble is villians bet could well be feinging weakness. If he has QQ, AA or possibly KK (he really should bet more with KK here cos a turned ace would scare him), the board has no real draws going for it so he could make a weak bet knowing you may pot commit yourself if you raise. I think this could also be a missed AK or JJ and he wants to cbet but the pot is very large and he doesn't want to make a big bet when he might be beat. Think we have to push, and if called by QQ, KK or AA make detailed notes on how he played this had.

Edit update:

Didn't realise there were so many callers to see the flop when I first read the hand. The flop bet looks like weakness now, he'd bet more with AA, KK, QQ with so many callers. Think you need to push this.

Say you call, another player calls then the flop bettor checks a blank turn card. You now know almost for sure you have the flop bettor beat, but is the other caller slowplaying you. By calling you don't really get much usefull information if anyone else just calls, so you need to raise and given the pot size that raise has to be a push.

[Roadstar]

Agreed, its almost a push/fold situation... so we're ok with pushing then? Calling could be the worst option here...

[ QUOTE ]
So you gonna fold to a raise? You have less than a potsized bet. Giving 67, any 5 or 8 or Q, any medium pocket pair 12:1 odds to hit doesn't seem smart just because you think that someone might have a set or KK/AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokerchap]

i dont understand what the extra card does for us?

[bmk67]

UTG's limp min-reraise with four other players in the pot makes me want to vomit. If UTG has AA or KK he's an idiot; this raise cannot possibly thin the field, as it prices everyone in - and he's sacrificing a huge amount of equity by letting this one go multi-way. If UTG doesn't have AA or KK he's a bigger idiot, bloating a multi-way pot OOP. I think it's safe to say that UTG is an idiot, period.

UTG's flop bet is also moronic, thus confirming that UTG is in fact an idiot. His raise fails to protect his hand if it's best and has no fold equity.

I can't automatically put villian on AA/KK/QQ here, but it's a strong possibility we have to consider.

You already know this, but you're in a very precarious situation.

If you're behind, calling here may be mathematically correct, but it still sucks, as you're giving everyone behind you ever-increasing irresistable pot odds to suck out.

Your hand may be good here, but pushing sucks as I don't think you have a lot of fold equity here, and even if you have UTG beat here, you do not want anyone else coming along for the ride.

How lucky do you feel? Pushing with a marginal hand in a limp-RR multiway pot seems like a good way to end your shot at 100NL.

Absent a good read, I think I can find a fold here.

[maso]

Ugh it looks like a limp min reraise from UTG if I read the action correctly in my limited experience its nearly always AA/KK both have us crushed. I think I fold like a weak tight nit.

[Roadstar]

Ok never done one of these but this was probably one of the toughest decision in a while.

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh it looks like a limp min reraise from UTG if I read the action correctly in my limited experience its nearly always AA/KK both have us crushed. I think I fold like a weak tight nit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just about to say that. Min re-raises scream monster.

[mother_brain]

If we dont love this flop i see no reason for even calling the minraise preflop.

Push and pray baby.

[kidpokeher]

I'd be able to make a better decision if I knew about the rest of the callers. If they're tight players and will fold if they whiff, calling isn't such a bad play. Why? Being second to act. They still have to make a decision and they see it's a family pot. Your call will give them an excuse to fold. Invest $5 for the potential to win $50. If anyone shoves after you then you know who has the set.

If you're on a loose/aggressive table, I think you should shove. You've got TPTK which is the best you can hope for. Your villain may be playing weak when strong, but that doesn't fit the style of a 40/12. It's more likely he whiffed and is trying to get some people to fold without it costing too much. I think your only real worry is whether someone else has 55 or 88. If villain had AA/KK do you think he would only be minraising all those callers preflop? Would anyone else simply call preflop with AA/KK?

My preference is to call because anyone with a drawing hand is going to lay down to even a $5 bet. You can still get away with most of your stack if someone acts like they want to get it all in. You're likely laying down the best hand if you fold here.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
My preference is to call because anyone with a drawing hand is going to lay down to even a $5 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your logic here. Why would someone lay down a draw getting like 11:1?

[Roadstar]

I don't have specific reads on the rest of the callers. Safe to say, with the pot bloating to $50+ preflop, they aren't particularly a tight group.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be able to make a better decision if I knew about the rest of the callers. If they're tight players and will fold if they whiff,

[/ QUOTE ]

[Chubbers]

I fold this pre-flop due to the call then min-raise. It's a stupid play but it shows he has AA or KK. You're behind.

Also, being OOP with 4 players behind is terrible. If you push this flop your 75% chance to be behind UTG. The players behind you will all fold without a set so you're TPTK against AA or KK with only just over 2 outs.

As played; I actually think the best play here is to call. You're looking for a Q or a diamond on the turn in which case i'd push. Otherwise i'd fold if i haven't improved.

[kidpokeher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My preference is to call because anyone with a drawing hand is going to lay down to even a $5 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your logic here. Why would someone lay down a draw getting like 11:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was unclear I guess. What I meant was outside of someone with 67 anyone starting with connectors or two suited whiffed the flop and will lay down anyway so there's no need to put more money at risk.

[mother_brain]

What happened.

[NSchandler]

I think this lrr looks more like Axs or SCers or something instead of AA, KK. It's stupid action regardless, but I'm not convinced villain has a monster.

I push flop, but I absolutely hate this spot.

[bmk67]

[ QUOTE ]
I was unclear I guess. What I meant was outside of someone with 67 anyone starting with connectors or two suited whiffed the flop and will lay down anyway so there's no need to put more money at risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your thinking, but I still disagree.

The three villians left behind us are getting 11:1 or better to call. What kind of odds does a hand like 98, 87, 65, or 54 need to peel one off here? Anyone who made a pair (with or without a backdoor draw) is getting immediate pot odds to call. For that matter, even a gutshot is getting odds to continue.

Bad players with overcards or underpairs will often peel here too, though we don't mind that so much, at least we wouldn't if it were heads up.

The problem I see here is that if we call, we're probably going to get at least one caller behind us, maybe all three. In that case, how many safe cards are there on the turn?

If we aren't best, then we have 0, 2 or 5 clean outs. If we are best, and we get overcalls, there are a boatload of cards on the turn that could beat us.

I think that this is a case where calling is clearly the worst play. Folding may be weak here, but I still think it's the best move. Raising leaves us isolated against either the original raiser (who told us preflop that he has a monster), or against a player left to act who made a set.

Look for a better spot.

[Jouster777]

Its very clear we are WA/WB here to the bettor. This is an incredibly dry board so giving a free card to the drawers is not that bad because we don't necessarily have a hand to protect. We may very well be drawing to 2 outs and we have the right implied odds to do so if we get some calls behind and add in a BD flush.

I want to see UTG's turn action more than I want to protect a potentially dominated hand. I call.

[Roadstar]

I pushed... UTG called and shows 88 MHING...