Monster draw being open pushed against - 20NL 6-max

[Sir Winalot]

No reads.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $20.24
Hero: $27.71
Button: $7.91
SB: $13.86
BB: $11.96

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.8</font>, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $1.2</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.1, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in $10.76</font>, Hero folds

Thoughts?

[Murd0c]

Fold. Your not getting any kind of odds. At best your a coinflip, and at worst your a moderate to significant underdog.

[xwillience]

u have a FD + a pair + BDSD. likely any 7 or 8 (5 outs) + FD (9 outs) + BD 1 Gap SD (1 out) = 15 outs.

your 54% to win so its a +EV call. but extremely high variance.

[marvin_1935]

you've got bottom a pair w/ non nut fd and backdoor straight draw vs a pf reraiser. a monster draw is a fd+oesd or fd+dgst or fd+2 overcards. pretty easy fold imo.

[marvin_1935]

15 outs is pretty generous, you're not counting the times you hit on the river and still lose or the times you hit on the turn and villain out draws you on the river. against villains range you're seldom a coin flip and frequently a pretty significant dog. getting it in w/ the worst of it is very -ev

[xwillience]

15 is not generous at all. his range is an Ace or a big PP like KK/QQ. there is a very remote chance that villian has AT. in which case you have 12 outs and are still 45% to win.

[marvin_1935]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.016 secs 2,413,125 games/sec

Board: Ah Th 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.4828 % 46.48% 00.00% { 8h7h }
Hand 2: 53.5172 % 53.52% 00.00% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

well shucks, +EV, get it in!

[xwillience]

Even with your PStove calculations (i misread mine earlier) we win $14.86 46.48% of the time and lose $10.76 53.52% of the time.


giving us a +EV of $1.14.

so as you said:

[ QUOTE ]
well shucks, +EV, get it in!

[/ QUOTE ]


and If you remove AA/TT from his range because I REALLY dont think he would play those that way, it becomes even greater +EV.

[Shaddux]

Wait. How was he being a smartass when he's agreeing with you? I didn't take that as sarcasm, being that it actually is +EV to get it all in.

[xwillience]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait. How was he being a smartass when he's agreeing with you? I didn't take that as sarcasm, being that it actually is +EV to get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]


his calculations show that we are an 7% dog. not a favorite. see the number 46 next to our hand, thats the % we are going to win in the long run. the number 53 next to villains range means in the long run hes going to win 53% of the time.

and ill remove my sarcasm comment just becuase its not really helpful to the thread.

[Shaddux]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wait. How was he being a smartass when he's agreeing with you? I didn't take that as sarcasm, being that it actually is +EV to get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

his calculations show that we are an 7% dog. not a favorite. see the number 46 next to our hand, thats the % we are going to win in the long run. the number 53 next to villains range means in the long run hes going to win 53% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
pot odds?

[xwillience]

i factored in pot odds Shaddux will really do show that we are +EV.

[Shaddux]

i.e. I assumed he took this into account:

[ QUOTE ]
Even with your PStove calculations (i misread mine earlier) we win $14.86 46.48% of the time and lose $10.76 53.52% of the time.


giving us a +EV of $1.14.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what the pokerstove numbers mean btw /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Art Vandalay]

Fold. You don't have the odds to call.

[Shaddux]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. You don't have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
read thread.

[Shaddux]

I know. What I meant was, I assumed he factored in pot odds as well since it seems like common sense.

[Frogic]

[ QUOTE ]

and If you remove AA/TT from his range because I REALLY dont think he would play those that way, it becomes even greater +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't play AA/TT that way but he plays QQ and KK like that on a board with an Ace on it? My experience is people only over push with a Huge Hand, a Huge Draw or some weird bluff. I'd think sets that are scared of the drawy board make a lot of sense.

Frogic

[xwillience]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

and If you remove AA/TT from his range because I REALLY dont think he would play those that way, it becomes even greater +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't play AA/TT that way but he plays QQ and KK like that on a board with an Ace on it? My experience is people only over push with a Huge Hand, a Huge Draw or some weird bluff. I'd think sets that are scared of the drawy board make a lot of sense.

Frogic

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, this is almost always a shorty who got a peice of the flop with an Ace or a big Pair. if it werent for the preflop action, id think K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif was possible but he reraised preflop. Im willing to bet this is AJ+ or KK/QQ. if its a set so be it, we have lots of outs.

[Frogic]

Ok I didn't realize villian was short. Even against a set we're barely -EV with the dead money, call all day(I checked pokercalc and we're +EV against the better draws too).

Frogic

[evilempire]

I call and expect to see AK. Which we are getting odds against

[marvin_1935]

i didnt see the pre-edit, but i wasnt trying to be a smartass. i agree this is JJ+, AQs+ pretty much all the time. even including TT in his range calling is +EV.

[Vammakala]

Calling is probably +ev, but only slightly, you can pass it up if you don't like high variance plays.

I'd probably call, but I'd much more like to be the one pushing.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is probably +ev, but only slightly, you can pass it up if you don't like high variance plays.

I'd probably call, but I'd much more like to be the one pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]
BB was first to act so it wasn't really up to me. I almost timed out on this one as I was trying to figure out wtf he could have. After I folded he showed me J8o for a stone cold bluff, meh.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
you've got bottom a pair w/ non nut fd and backdoor straight draw vs a pf reraiser. a monster draw is a fd+oesd or fd+dgst or fd+2 overcards. pretty easy fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
I consider pair+flushdraw to be a monster draw.

[Shaddux]

add to buddylist?

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
add to buddylist?

[/ QUOTE ]
No buddylist at ladbrokes. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ActionStan]

Discounting the possible, but absurd holdings, that just doesn't feel like the right range given his pre-flop min-raise and post flop push. Is he minraising with Ax-AJ? That would seem to be a call. Are you building a bigger multiway pot with AK/AQ? That doesn't seem likely.

As for KK/QQ, is the villian going to push into the pre-flop raiser with an A on the board? That just seems dumb. A regular old value bet seems more profitable and less risky in that situation.

My first instinct is that he has some sort of combo draw, quite possibly better then ours. My second instinct is that he has a set that he's playing as a combo-draw or is just spooked by the board. There is still a very real possibility that he has squat or some hand that was misplayed pre-flop. Even if you give a 50% likelyhood of case 3, it seems that 1 &amp; 2 outweigh our scrappy little draw.

Given that the lion's share of our value is in our draw, I think I would start argueing for a call if my flush draw were a little stronger and I had a gutshot. Maybe something like QhJh on a AhTh7c board as a minimum.

[Delphin]

Easy call unless you are particularly variance adverse (ie building a bankroll and short on $$$). I make this call all day long.