River raise out of the bushes after MY draw gets there [Archive]

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Vammakala

10-22-2006, 02:37 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

UTG ($25.95)
MP ($49.25)
CO ($66.35)
Button ($19.95)
SB ($49.35)
Hero ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Button raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3.25) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $1, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, Button calls $3.

Turn: ($15.25) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

River: ($15.25) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $26, Button folds, Hero ???

I'm confused. The villain is 29/16/1.67 and WSD/W@SD: 27/64 over 120 hands. He raises so big, is this a flush as well or was he slowplaying a monster maybe? I doubt he'd do this as a bluff.

Pokey

10-22-2006, 02:54 PM

This looks like an easy call to me, and possibly a three-bet all-in.

Of the hands that just "got there" on the river, we have:

Total bluffs, which we beat.
Straights with 64 or 96, which we beat.
Two-pair (esp. with an overpair) and three-pair hands, which we beat.
Trips (probably with a good kicker), which we beat.
Very unlikely flushes, 75% of which we beat and 25% of which beat us.
Super slow-played full houses, which beat us.
Rivered full houses, which beat us.

You are not allowed to rule out a bluff based on observed river behavior from a guy that you've seen play 120 hands, so we cannot rule out a pure bluff. We also cannot rule out hands that beat us. Still, against his raising range we're WAY ahead.

Your turn move makes it look like you were bluffing the flop. This river bet looks very much like a bluff to buy the pot, or a block to protect a weak hand. All of these facts demand that we at least not fold the hand.

Now, the question is, should we push or should we call? If we push, we're not folding out any better hands -- that's a given. The question is, are we getting called by any WORSE hands? I think A2/K2 calls. I think all diamond flushes call. I think all straights call. I think that's about it. I also think straights are virtually impossible for this villain and K2 is nearly impossible as well. A2 is only possible if the hand is suited. Flushes would have to be connectors for this guy to play, especially with straight possibilities (JT, T9) or pairs (98) as well. All told, I think a push is just a LITTLE bit too thin given the information presented. Now, if you told us that villain was steaming from recent beats, or getting frustrated by people running over the table, that would be different. If you said that you had been caught bluffing a few times, or that you've picked up the last three pots uncontested, that would be an easy call. But with no further information, I just call this river bet.

Sir Winalot

10-22-2006, 03:02 PM

Nice analysis Pokey, allthough I don't agree with villain calling an AI with a straight on this board.

Vammakala, I think you should lead the river for at least 10. I prolly call his raise here too.

ama0330

10-22-2006, 03:24 PM

On a paired board with the 2nd nut flush I just call here, but I can't fold. I also 3 bet this up preflop, to put the pressure on early - I don't like minraisers.

Vammakala

10-22-2006, 09:46 PM

I got some "Fold, all you beat is a bluff" answers from several other sources and I'm torn.

But I figured raising PROBABLY won't achieve all that much since he could'v eeasily been drawing to the nutflush and I'm not all that sure he'd call with anything less than ace high flush. Even if he did, I don't know if his play is consistent with that since his aggression is relatively low.

To me this was a call or fold. Pushing did cross my mind, but river raises on these levels are relatively rarely bluffs which made it more of a C/F, situation.