Fiksdal
10-20-2006, 01:52 PM
I was thinking about how to calculate the EV of a bluff. After giving it some thought I came up with this one.
P = Pot before you bluff
B = Bet-size of the bluff
FE = The percentage of the time you guess all opponents will fold to your bluff
EV = Exptected value
EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)
This formula assumes you will never win any part of the pot in any other way if the bluff is called.
Example:
Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
10 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
SB: 1000$
Hero: 1000$
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
8 folds, SB calls 5$, Hero checks.
Flop: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15.
Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($60, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls $25.
River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($100, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50
In this hand, Hero thinks the opponent will have a busted flush draw 50% of the time,
in this case he will fold to Heros bluff.
The remaining 50% of the time Hero thinks villain has been slow-playing a monster, and the bluff will be
at least called.
The opponent will therefore fold to a bet 50% of the time here.
Here are the calculations:
P = 100$
B = 50$
FE = 50% = 0.5
EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)
EV = -(50$ -(50$ * 0.5)) + (100$ * 0,5)
EV = -(50$ -(25$)) + (50$)
EV = -(25$) + (50$)
EV = 25$
In the example, your bluff will on average win you 25$, if you have gotten the FE right.
I hope this will be useful to those of you who aren't already familiar with this way of considering when to, and how much to bet when you bluff.
P = Pot before you bluff
B = Bet-size of the bluff
FE = The percentage of the time you guess all opponents will fold to your bluff
EV = Exptected value
EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)
This formula assumes you will never win any part of the pot in any other way if the bluff is called.
Example:
Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
10 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
SB: 1000$
Hero: 1000$
Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
8 folds, SB calls 5$, Hero checks.
Flop: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15.
Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($60, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls $25.
River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($100, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50
In this hand, Hero thinks the opponent will have a busted flush draw 50% of the time,
in this case he will fold to Heros bluff.
The remaining 50% of the time Hero thinks villain has been slow-playing a monster, and the bluff will be
at least called.
The opponent will therefore fold to a bet 50% of the time here.
Here are the calculations:
P = 100$
B = 50$
FE = 50% = 0.5
EV = -(B -(B * FE)) + (P * FE)
EV = -(50$ -(50$ * 0.5)) + (100$ * 0,5)
EV = -(50$ -(25$)) + (50$)
EV = -(25$) + (50$)
EV = 25$
In the example, your bluff will on average win you 25$, if you have gotten the FE right.
I hope this will be useful to those of you who aren't already familiar with this way of considering when to, and how much to bet when you bluff.