$10NL: does flush draw have pot odds to call? [Archive]

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SDSilverA4

10-20-2006, 08:22 AM

First hand sitting down at a table (arguably I should have just waited for the BB before playing), so no reads. How should I have played this hand?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $11.75
UTG+1: $4.70
MP1: $1.75
Hero: $10
MP3: $23.30
CO: $13.95
Button: $2.60
SB: $3.90
BB: $9.90

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.2, 2 folds, Button calls $0.2 (pot was $0.35), SB calls $0.15 (pot was $0.55), BB calls $0.1 (pot was $0.7).

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, Button raises to $0.5, SB calls $0.5 (pot was $1.55), BB folds, Hero calls $0.25 (pot was $2.05).

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif ($2.3, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button is all-in $1.9, SB calls $1.9 (pot was $4.2), Hero calls $1.9 (pot was $6.1).

River: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ($8, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $8)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: $8

SDSilverA4

10-20-2006, 08:57 AM

Oh, and I'm curious how people feel about when to post a blind as opposed to waiting for the BB to come around.

Jouster777

10-20-2006, 09:17 AM

If all you want is an answer to the question in the title: its an easy fold

But that's not the right question. You have a set draw and implied odds to consider as well. Pot is offering 3.21:1 and 11 outs is 3.18:1 against. So we just have pot odds with the additional 2 set outs.

HOWEVER, SB has $1.30 left so we have implied odds of 3.9:1 if we assume SB will put it in when we hit.

HOWEVER, SB will be on a FD too some % of the time which crushes us.

Too much has to go right, looks like a fold to me.

SDSilverA4

10-20-2006, 09:26 AM

Thanks Jouster. I actually wrote in implied odds originally (so I did think of it) but then in my head I figure with the first guy AI there's no implied odds with that. And I wasn't sure the SB's money could be included in odds calculations.

As for needing too much to go right isn't this a (definitely not perfect but maybe good enough) time to loosen up and go for it? One guy is already AI so I can't dump any more money to them and I can only loose another ~$1.3 to the SB.

What if I re-raise the AI to push out the SB and go heads up?

bgoalie35

10-20-2006, 09:44 AM

The minraise doesn't really accomplish anything pf. It may bloat the pot a little for you if you hit your big draw (and this is definitely a drawing hand), but noone will fold to that bet, and anyone that really wants to raise the pot up will reraise you. Either bet about 0.4 or just limp.

Your flop bet is too small. You either need to just check and hope to see the next card, or bet more (2/3 pot to pot). With 4 way action and only one player left to act, I probably check and hope to see the turn for free. I might bet in a situation where my draw was better (nut flush draw, combo draw), and especially if there were fewer players involved. With 4 people in the pot, you probably can't fold out everyone here.

You can call the turn if you want, but as jouster said, a lot of things have to go very right for you. If someone has a higher flush draw, then you're practically dead. I usually don't like to make semi-marginal drawing calls with poor draws (6 high for the flush).

As for raising to push SB out of the hand, he's committed now, and there's no way he can fold what little he has left.

Jouster777

10-20-2006, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't sure the SB's money could be included in odds calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]You can't be sure...if he's on a draw and whiffs he will fold the river. If you are both on a FD you will almost always have the lower one so if you hit you lose it all.

[ QUOTE ]
As for needing too much to go right isn't this a (definitely not perfect but maybe good enough) time to loosen up and go for it? One guy is already AI so I can't dump any more money to them and I can only loose another ~$1.3 to the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]The EV calculation is the EV calculation. Looks pretty close to 0 (but probably EV-) to me with very high variance and that makes it a fold for me but you could go either way. Considerations of whose able to put in more and how much are already in the calculation...don't fool yourself. Saying "its only x more" is EV-

[ QUOTE ]
What if I re-raise the AI to push out the SB and go heads up?

[/ QUOTE ] If he wasn't folding getting 2:1 odds he sure isn't going to fold getting 8:1

SDSilverA4

10-20-2006, 09:52 AM

Ahhh, that makes sense to me now, Jouster. I'm still not very good at figuring out EV and things like that yet.