Button steal + bluff raise = ???

[ajmargarine]

No reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $44.85
UTG+1: $61.15
CO: $49.70
Hero: $53.30
SB: $50.65
BB: $59.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif ($11.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>...

[orange]

He looks weak enough for this to be +EV I think.

[wake_up]

You're calling a push I take it?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
You're calling a push I take it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, am I? Should I?

[wake_up]

I don't know /images/graemlins/smile.gif
But you have committed alot of your stack here... I would probably call and re-evaluate without a better read. But I don't make moves like this as often as I should!

[carnivalhobo]

i think he has a draw here like 70% of the time, hopefully he is good enough to fold it.

[cambraceres]

I don't pull anything like this often, but even if I did I can't call a turn push. Now on the river it may be different. Either way this play takes some sac, hope it worked out for you.

Cam

[Raisor]

i need a read for this play

[SubaruSTiMike]

I don't know, at lower stakes, plays like this...are they really +EV? But it's good you're punshing the guy for betting so weak, if he calls then see what he does on the river, if you hit it's obvisou, if you miss you should fire a bluff, or if he checks and you don't thikn he'll fold just check. You do have position so I'm thinking a call wouldn't be too bad, you can draw cheaply without having to commit too much.

[littlebu]

I think I would call the turn and see the river and see how he reacts to it. I need a pretty good read to bluff that much of my stack.

[gimmetheloot]

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

nh.

[tomonbass]

Good Bet I put him on the diamond draw here looking for a cheap river....

Hopefully he'll fold its more likely at 50NL... but most likely he'll call and the Qd will hit lol /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I wouldnt try this at 25NL...

[munkey]

I guess he's on a draw of some type(str8 or diamond draw) weak block betting ~60% time
OR is looking to 3bet the turn with set/2pair/e.tc. 56 SC str8 or has a weak like TT overpair.

When you raise if he has a draw he'll fold but if he's looking to build a pot OR can't find the fold button I think you're commiting too much to what is 6outs+bluff.

I would call the turn vs unknown - good odds -then can cheaply bluff the river if the obvious diamond draw misses provided he doesn't lead at us.

If I had reads that he likes to weakly block draws then I would more favour a raise.

[ama0330]

Okay, but what is he going to put you on and therefore what is he likely to fold? This is really read dependant as we need to know with some certainty that villain is unlikely to donkbet the turn with some kind of monster, and we also need to know that he's the type to cave TPTK to pressure.

EDIT: Hmm. Villain c/c's flop then leads turn. I have a bad feeling about this.

[NL Newbie]

Have you played aggressively recently? Villan may be wanting to B3B you.

It looks like you've got balls and a overpair(AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AKs/images/graemlins/diamond.gif)

I'd want a read to do this play, or id call and steal it on the river. It does look like a blocking bet though so to do this play i'd need to know villan can fold &amp; be willing to fold to the reraise.

Otherwise you're going to have to go the river in a huge pot w/J-high alot of the time....and do you have the balls to push a non-diamond when checked to? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[matrix]

you need a read to do this I think - Button makes a play that looks like a float, or a draw trying to set the price, or a donk who has no clue about bet sizes, or a monster hand thats poking you with a stick so he can b3b all-in on the turn... (and some of those are more advanced than the average $50NL villain can comprehend)

We can't call a Trun push - even if half opur stacks already inthe middle as then it's waaaay obvious we are beat and will only draw out 25% of the time or so, which means we got no odds to call as we'd be getting a little better than 2.5:1

I think he is weak here often and can't call so this play is goot. If he calls and the Q or 7 of /images/graemlins/diamond.gif drops things get interesting.

I think he folds a fd here calls with TPTK calls with 67 pushes with 67/images/graemlins/diamond.gif calls with an overpair so most of the time he's folding. If he has an overpair and the river misses and isn't an overcard to his pair he's never folding. (say he has QQ and a J drops) if he has something like QQ and a K drops he probably feels pot committed.

I think is very slightly +EV but mostly just high variance at these stakes cos the donkeys call with way too much and we have no read yet and no clue what kind of donk this dude is.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
you need a read to do this I think - Button makes a play that looks like a float, or a draw trying to set the price, or a donk who has no clue about bet sizes, or a monster hand thats poking you with a stick so he can b3b all-in on the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]Probably a draw but I think strangely played flopped set or a set of 5's shows up here a fair amount.

[ QUOTE ]
I think is very slightly +EV but mostly just high variance at these stakes

[/ QUOTE ] A turn call is also EV+...decent implied odds you are getting for that too. I'd have called but I'm a wimp.

[Pokey]

Nice, but I'd have made it about $17 instead. That way you leave yourself a good $30 to bet into a $45 pot on any diamond, any club, or any straight card on the river. Villain might have a flush draw and villain might have a set, but villain can't have ALL the draws; if he checks the river, I'm pushing ANY remotely scary card (as well as my straights). Note: I'm checking behind if I hit top pair -- hopefully, people see why that's the right choice.

P.S.: after raising to $17, I fold to a turn push or a river open-push (unless I hit, obv).

This play is money, but I think stack sizes dictate making the turn raise a TINY bit smaller to boost your folding equity on the river.

[ActionStan]

It doesn't seem like the pot is offering the odds to call a push. You're almost certainly behind any hand that pushes. A steal is a steal. If it doesn't work out, abandon ship and move on.

If you're going to commit to calling a push, then it seems you should make a bigger raise or just push yourself, right?

[kongs]

I really like this play. You have outs to the nuts and he will likely throw away his hand right now. I don't know about calling a push here whether you should or shouldn't so Ill leave that to someone else /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're going to commit to calling a push, then it seems you should make a bigger raise or just push yourself, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but that should only apply when you WANT to get all-in. Too often people make death-pacts with their bets, betting an amount that is entirely unreasonable, that will only get called by superior hands, and then they justify it by saying "well, if I bet this big then I'll have the pot odds to call a push." Great! You've nullified a mistake (calling a three-bet push without proper odds) by making an even BIGGER mistake (committing yourself to a stacking with an underdog hand while allowing all worse hands to escape cheaply).

Be sure that you're never making a bigger bet solely to avoid folding to a raise.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]


This play is money, but I think stack sizes dictate making the turn raise a TINY bit smaller to boost your folding equity on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey, I want to have max FE on the turn, not the river. I'm not putting anymore money in the middle on the river unless my straight comes in.

As for results: My feel for the him (small bet usually folds to aggression, I've repped an overpair to him) was off. He 3b me all-in. And I foldededed.