50NL - T3s flops a huge draw

[yasher]

Villain is 22/12.7, decent TAG. He knows how to fold, but I've seen him make some suspect calls with cards to come. We've got some history. One specific hand, I took a stack from him when he limp/called, flop came 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, he check/called a PSB w/ 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, lead the turned 3/images/graemlins/club.gif for the pot and called my shove w/middle pair & a gutshot. I showed down 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif for the turned flush.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $98.30
CO: $86.60
Button: $70.05
SB: $77.85
Hero: $50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, CO calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($1.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $4.85</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16.2</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($33.65, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero shoves for like $1 more than pot</font>

I wanted to get it in on the flop, but he didn't oblige me.

How's the turn?

[orange]

I think you played this fine. He seems like he calls down lighter though, so I might just call his raise and c/r a turn if I improve.

[xwillience]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played this fine. He seems like he calls down lighter though, so I might just call his raise and c/r a turn if I improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pho75]

The problem with this situation is he could have Adxd and you're screwed.

[Vern]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this situation is he could have Adxd and you're screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think a TAG with those stats A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifX/images/graemlins/diamond.gif open raises in the CO about every time. I would be more worried about J9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif but I am still not going to fear the monster.

[yasher]

pho,

Yep, he could have a higher flush, but them's the breaks. Would you play this differently? If we start worrying about monsters, then this hand is just a OESD, and that's just /images/graemlins/frown.gif

orange/xw,

If we smooth call his raise, and the flush falls, its easy for him to get away from whatever hand he has, isn't it? On a similar front, if the turn brings the flush, I bet and he raises, are we getting away from this? Can we really put him on A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx or J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx and fold? I mean, maybe?

[Yaboosh]

I just don't know if I like a B/3B unless the 3 bet is all in. What are you going to fold out with the 3bet that raises us on this flop? Against a range of K7+, Q9+, we are almost exactly a coinflip. I think 3betting here is pointless unless we know that he tends to fold with pretty strong holdings.

I just saw that you have a read that he TENDS TO MAKE SUSPECT CALLS. Why did you try to get him off his hand when you think he makes suspect calls?


By my not liking the bet/3bet unless it is all in does not mean I am advocating a push here. With these stacks and that read, that would be silly.


Edit: Someone needs to make a Poobah post about big combo draws and how they need fold equity to be pushed hard (unless you like flipping coins against someone who will give you much better odds than that on your money in the future).

[nuts]

I think a call is better than a three bet on the flop, your read is that he'll call if you make the hand too.

[tomonbass]

I c/c this flop and reevaluate the hand on the turn..I dont want to get my stack in, in an unraised pot...

Besides thats a dangerous flop to be bluffing at anyway.. players love the high broadway cards... and I cant see your villan folding if hes got a decent slice of the flop here..

On the turn in your hand as it is I bet much less maybe half, 3/4 pot.. now that Ive made my hand I want to get paid off, not scare my opponent off with a monsterous bet...

[pho75]

I'm not saying I'm afraid that he has Ax of diamonds, I'm just including it in his range of possible hands. You can't eliminate a hand like that.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this situation is he could have Adxd and you're screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think a TAG with those stats A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifX/images/graemlins/diamond.gif open raises in the CO about every time. I would be more worried about J9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif but I am still not going to fear the monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 12.6% prf is pretty nitty. He will not open a lot of Axs hands here.