Call All-in with K high?

[Roadstar]

25NL (Trying out WPEX) 5 max

Important Read on Villain - villain is LAG preflop and will call a lot of raises. Postflop he tends to go all in on the flop quite often even if its many times the size of the pot (which kinda works as WPEX'ers keep folding). He slow plays big hands so allins are usually draws or maybe 1 (weak) pair.

Stacks Villain has $12, I cover

Preflop

Hero gets K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif in CO and open raises to $1, folds to villain in BB who calls.

Flop

J /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain open pushes for about $11, Hero wants to insta-call because I think:

1) 50% of the time hes got a draw, but my draw are to the nuts so he could have an under draw like a 9x, 8x, Q9. I guess it could be KQ too

2) 25% its a stone cold bluff

3) 25% hes got a pair, mid pair or top pair with weak kicker. Though, even against J9, I'm 45%/55%

990 games 0.010 secs 99,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Td 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.4444 % 44.44% 00.00% { KcQh }
Hand 2: 55.5556 % 55.56% 00.00% { Js9d }

I know 2p2 default here is fold, but based on reads can I call?

[Gravy]

[ QUOTE ]
Important Read on Villain - villain is LAG preflop and will call a lot of raises. Postflop he tends to go all in on the flop quite often even if its many times the size of the pot (which kinda works as WPEX'ers keep folding). He slow plays big hands so allins are usually draws or maybe 1 (weak) pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then wait until you have a made hand.

[wallywojo]

if ever you are trying to get all-in with this hand you need to be the aggressor. Without fold equity this play does not work. Also, I think saying they are on a draw 50% is just being hopeful of their situation.

[Roadstar]

Maybe 50% is hopeful. But hes almost never doing this with 2 pair+. Therefore, against most 1 pairs, my equity is still around 45%. I think even if you say his probabilities of 1 pair/draw/bluff is like 80%/10%/10%

its still +EV to call (incl the $2 dead money).

Thoughts? Obviously its a high variance play - but I think still +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
if ever you are trying to get all-in with this hand you need to be the aggressor. Without fold equity this play does not work. Also, I think saying they are on a draw 50% is just being hopeful of their situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

[maso]

If you believe your read is good it looks like a call OESD+overs vs a large bluffing range but your only 60/40 vs a random range but still its +ev.
If you like variance call.
If you prefer to wait for TP and punish him then fold.

[Roadstar]

Are you suggesting I pass on +EV situation for now? There are 3 other nits at the table waiting to do the same thing....

[ QUOTE ]


Then wait until you have a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[xwillience]

he open pushes 11 into a 2. you just cant call that profitably. if he open pushed maybe 11 into 8 or something, i would be more inclined to call, but your getting 1:1 and you may be drawing to only 7 outs if he flopped the nuts.

[Gravy]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you suggesting I pass on +EV situation for now? There are 3 other nits at the table waiting to do the same thing....

[ QUOTE ]


Then wait until you have a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I'm not gonna take a 55/45 shot for my stack when I knw I can get it in against this guy as an 80%+ favorite.

[Roadstar]

Maybe. But I don't know if there is a concept for this - essentially, he will bust soon and I rather take +EV now before he goes busto?

[ QUOTE ]


Yeah. I'm not gonna take a 55/45 shot for my stack when I knw I can get it in against this guy as an 80%+ favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

[xwillience]

Roadstar- the point is that this is NOT +EV. your very much behind and not getting the odds to call.

if you had any pair it would be different but just cant call all in here. it would be spew.

[Roadstar]

I've seen him with monster hands, he 1/3 PSBs them the whole way (and goes crazy if you raise him) so very unlikely.

I'd guess EV will still be + if you attribute like 1-5% of the time he has a monster in his range though. The point of the exercise if not to focus on the times I'm drawing extremely thin but find a reasonable range where EV remains +.

I know you seem to disagree with this, whats your range for this guy then?

[ QUOTE ]
you may be drawing to only 7 outs if he flopped the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokerchap]

i think you should call if you really think he has a draw 50% and a bluff 25%

[Roadstar]

I'm stubborn, why do you feel so strongly its NOT +EV? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Seriously, against any pair I'm 45/55. Add in a touch of bluffing % and draw % (where he could have an underdraw), I'm easily over 50% no?


I didn't bother with the exact suits, but giving him most ranges where he would have a pair, plus a couple of bluff/draw hands. I'm just better than 50/50..?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

275,220 games 0.190 secs 1,448,526 games/sec

Board: Js Td 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.3276 % 52.07% 00.25% { KcQd }
Hand 2: 47.6724 % 47.42% 00.25% { ATs, A7s, KTs, QTs, J5s+, T5s+, 96s+, 86s+, 74s+, 64s+, ATo, A7o, KTo, K7o, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o }

[ActionStan]

This sounds like a rationalization to call. It may, given a very specific set of reads, be +EV, but not by much. Do you really want to put $11 at risk to win $.25 or whatever the expectation is? Seems like there's a better time and place to get your money in. Put another way, would you push every hand you got AK with a raiser in front? You're rarely worse than a coinflip there. It's probably close to +EV if you coming over the top every time.

If you have him covered by 10x or more, I could sort of rationalize calling him to see what he's doing with the chance to stack him.

[xwillience]

i dont know that this its +EV. maybe a coinflip I guess.



also, you didnt include the read that he 1/3 pot bets made hands in the OP. so you might be able to call here with a minor edge. but id still want something more solid. like any pair any kicker. id definitely be trying to get involved and isolate this guy preflop tho. tho hes short stacked so meh.

[Shaddux]

[ QUOTE ]
He slow plays big hands so allins are usually draws or maybe 1 (weak) pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then why are we calling with a draw, when we can do the same thing with TPTK?

[Roadstar]

Because the opportunity to take his money before 3 competing nits at the table does is IMO compelling.

I want to call with this draw because it is to the nuts, therefore:

1) I'm a big favorite if he is drawing himself (underdraw)

2) A very slight dog if he has a pair 45/55 ish

3) Big favorite if hes stone cold bluffing

Anyway, I guess this is a fold as noone here likes a call...

[ QUOTE ]

Then why are we calling with a draw, when we can do the same thing with TPTK?

[/ QUOTE ]

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm stubborn, why do you feel so strongly its NOT +EV? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, if you're just right, why bother asking the question in the first place. A lot of people are telling you something, because you asked them to, and you're arguing with them.

Yes, you can work out 'stove numbers to mean anything you want them to mean. The fact of the matter is your read sounds like your rationalizing a call.

[Roadstar]

Bozlax,

I never claimed I was just right. Afterall this is a discussion forum. In fact, the line you quote me was in the form of a question "why....?". Why do you think I'm asking a question if I think I'm right already?

I'm arguing/discussing (which is the whole point of this forum, IMO) because I can accept that I should fold, however, I don't easily accept answers like the following examples (and I'm not mocking the respective posters as many of them appear to be better players than me (from what I see in hand discussions), I'm merely trying to push for a more thought out response so we could all develop here):

1) "Yeah. I'm not gonna take a 55/45 shot for my stack when I knw I can get it in against this guy as an 80%+ favorite."
- IMO, the key point here is to establish whether we have a +EV situation. Of course ideally we would like to put all our money in when our opponent is drawing dead but thats not the point in this particular case.

2) "Then wait until you have a made hand."
- To me, it sounds like the "don't go broke in an unraised pot" mantra. Yes we should be waiting for a made hand to pounce on villain. But can we do it now if we estimate +EV.

3) "but your getting 1:1 and you may be drawing to only 7 outs if he flopped the nuts."
- IMO, sure this could happen. The possibility of going against the nuts is only 1 of many scenarios - we can incl. in the hand ranges but by no means should we fear it just because we could be up against it. (i.e. we don't go, oh he could have the nuts, well then I fold - the ANSWER might be fold but I think the REASONING shouldn't be this way)

I don't mean to offend anyone with those examples and I realize many are just giving me the time of day for a quick response. However, I'm just pointing out WHY I'm arguing back and forth. And I do realize in the end that villains range is wide and don't have a strong enough case to argue for much +EV - even though I thought I did.

And no I'm not stoving any number I want, thats one of the hardest challenges in poker, putting ppl on ranges and see how you fare against that range. Frequently, its not precise but still a worthy exercise. I find this very important because it is often hard to est. it in the middle of a hand - so the time to mull over it is now.

Summary - I thought it was a bold call at the time, now I think its not such a great idea.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm stubborn, why do you feel so strongly its NOT +EV? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, if you're just right, why bother asking the question in the first place. A lot of people are telling you something, because you asked them to, and you're arguing with them.

Yes, you can work out 'stove numbers to mean anything you want them to mean. The fact of the matter is your read sounds like your rationalizing a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bozlax]

Road, I didn't mean to offend. The basic issue, here, is that you're talking about risking your entire stack HU without a made hand. You have to be significantly above 50% equity to make this a +EV move.

[Roadstar]

Yeah its usually just breakeven EV at best.

Obviously the results tainted my judgement I called villain showed 65o MHIG.