Turned a set of tens, NL10, In quite a pickel on the river, bad play? [Archive]

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VorShot

10-19-2006, 12:11 PM

Sat down i think about 5 hands ago. Never seen any of these guys before (according to Poker Tracker) 

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
VorShot: $10.05
UTG+1: $18.50
CO: $16.50
Button: $8.80
SB: $1.95
BB: $8.60

Pre-flop: (6 players) VorShot is UTG with T/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif
VorShot raises to $0.4, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.95, 2 players)
VorShot bets $0.9, CO calls.

 Pot showed .90, .05 was raked, so i bet pot. I use the 'bet pot' button very little.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($2.75, 2 players)
VorShot bets $1.8, CO calls.

 My Gin card. While i'm safe againts a flush draw, there are still straight draws. I decide to be 3/4s the pot here. Should i bet more here? I know betting is the right line here, because i hate check raising, and this certainly isn't a good place to give a free card.

River: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($6.35, 2 players)
VorShot...

 That's an ugly card. Two things can happen.
-He has the King
-Doesn't have the King

So what happens if he has the king.
If i bet, A king raises
(or calls if he want to avoid a lot of rake if he thinks a K is what i have as well.)
If i bet and he doesn't have a King, more often then not, he folds here. (Unless i'm giving them to much credit for this level)
Maybe the place for a blocking bet? About how much would a good blocking bet be if i used that?


If i check, it could either check behind, or there could be a bet, with, or without the king.

Which means a third of the time, we go to showdown and i take the pot (unless he has a bigger set and played it very passive)

A third of the time, he'll fire with air and i can call.
A third of the time, he'll fire with the king, and i can ship it.

Because of these things, i check.

If he fires though, i'll have to call a bet not knowing where i am...

I checked, and he put me all in.

I decided that because i showed weakness, if he has the king, he's not getting value betting $6, so if he's betting $6, he isn't looking for value with the nuts. A smaller bet maybe, but putting me all in? .... .... .... I call.

Was this a bad play?

VorShot

10-19-2006, 12:33 PM

Bump?

markum9

10-19-2006, 12:36 PM

First of all, it's good to see you're trying to think through all the hands he could hold and your best bet on the river, but i think you need to look back at the action on the previous streets to see which hands are most likely.

Going through the hand:

Pre-flop: standard

Flop: personally, i'd bet around 3/4 of the pot, but a pot bet isn't bad. You're basically representing an A, and it's a very dry board HU. He's not folding to a full pot bet any more than a 3/4 bet, and if he reraises you get away cheaper. I basically 3/4 pot HU and on dry boards, and pot only when it's a drawy board.

Turn: 3/4 pot bet looks perfect to me.

River: So now he's called a pf raise and a flop and turn lead. So while AK, or maybe even KQ are in his range (plus a slowplayed AA-JJ), a huge part of his range is also 2-pair type of hands AQ-AT, A8, QT etc. If you were deeper a blocking bet might be ok, but you only have a little over the pot behind, so you'd be pretty committed to a reraise.

There really wasn't much he could be drawing to from the flop and miss, so i think the chances of him bluffing this river are slim. If you're going to call a river push, you should definitely lead out yourself instead, since you're letting him check behind with hands that you beat, but he's going to be betting a straight or a set that has you beat.

From the way you posted the hand, it sounds like he had a K, but I think you're well ahead of his range on the river and I think a push on the river is good.

VorShot

10-19-2006, 12:41 PM

Normally when i bet 3/4ths the pot on the flop, someone will come along and say "Bet pot"

I guess this is just one of those things where neither is wrong?

I try to keep my bets around the same amount. 3/4ths on the turn and river and either 3/4ths or full pot on the flop. Nothing to do with the strength of the cards, just keep my bets simular.

So considering that any bet commits me to the hand, should i lead for about half pot and call any raise?

whodatdare

10-19-2006, 12:50 PM

In my experience at this level most players are not bluffing with big river bets. It happens very rarely. I think this is an easy fold here.

markum9

10-19-2006, 12:50 PM

Yeah, neither is wrong as long as you do it consistently. My approach (for what it's worth), is to do 3/4 pot on dry boards and a full pot on drawy boards.

My reasoning is that if on the flop above, i have AA, QQ, or AQ or whatever, i want action, which 3/4 pot accomplishes more often. If I have TT or worse, I want to put the minimum in to still get fold equity, but get away if I get repopped.

On drawy boards, once again, if i have a strong hand, I want to charge people more for their draws, and with a bluff I need a larger bet to get people to fold in case they have a drawing type of hand.

And of course, whether or not i do bet or just c/f, c/c depends on the opponent, my table image, etc.

VorShot

10-19-2006, 01:12 PM

So does anyone else have any comments on this river?

crookdimwit

10-19-2006, 01:27 PM

Well, I don't think checking the river is good.

The river card is really the worst-case scenario for you. You were safe from any flush and if the board paired, you'd have a full house. Now, any K or any 9 means you're beat.

Checking pretty much concedes the hand. He's likely to bet with a made hand or a bluff either way. I think I'd throw out a smallish blocking bet, maybe 1/3 pot. If you get re-raised, jump ship. But there's a chance that he was as scared of that river card as you were... and there's a chance he has two pair here and might call a smallish bet...

Triggerle

10-19-2006, 01:37 PM

I'm pretty new to NL but here's my take on it:

I think whodatdare is right. At NL10 big river bluffs are rare. Knowing this and going back I think a blocker bet of a third of the pot would be the way to go on the river. If he pushes you can lay down and save a little money. Use your reads to determine the size of the blocker bet. If he reads your too small bet as equally weak as a check then a check might be better. A counter-point is that by betting anything substantial here you are pretty much commiting yourself to calling and have to be fairly certain he has a king to lay it down then.

VorShot

10-19-2006, 01:57 PM

I think if this situation comes up again, a blocking bet will be the way to go here.

As it turned out, he turned over A7o and i took a big pot, but i am not sure if it was the best line.

The funny thing about it is, normally, if they have the hand, they value bet, and if they don't they bet like this, so i felt like i was right...and this time at least...i was.

*shrugs*

Guess things can go my way for a change today.

ymu

10-19-2006, 03:45 PM

I think this is fine. From the action, he's more likely to have an A than a K and unlikely to have both. If he doesn't have a K he may well fold to a river bet, or crying call a small blocker. If we check, he knows we're scared of the board and bluffs big.

I'm more likely to check to a maniac and bet small into a passive calling station, but I'm not unhappy about the money going in here - he doesn't have a K more than 1/3 of the time.

EMc

10-19-2006, 03:50 PM

I probably value block the river. If he pushes, I call since there are a lot of big 2prs out there.