25$ NL: TPTK when villain wakes up on turn

[MortenTA]

Is this just standard?

only got 15 hands on villian but he seems bad. Calls too much preflop. Haven't seen him in a situation like this so I dont know if he is capeable of doing this without the J.

Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($26.05)
Button ($17.08)
SB ($15.19)
BB ($6.50)
UTG ($36.90)
Hero ($24.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.35) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, Button calls $2.

Turn: ($6.35) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, Button calls $14.08 (All-In), Hero folds.

[Shaddux]

I think he has a J here more often than any other card.

[MortenTA]

Im trying to be better at the math stuff so here goes /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Ev calculation for the call to ~break even
(34.51*0.22) - (9.58*0.78)= 0.12$

For this to be a +EV call we would have to have the best hand &gt;22% of the time. Does he have AT,AQ or AK this often?