Help me to play this better, 25NL Full Ring

[Pythuz]

MP1 is about 35/8/3 over about 85 hands and he's not done anything incredible that I've seen.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $29.15
UTG+1: $25.30
MP1: $31.90
MP2: $47.80
MP3: $4.30
Hero: $36.40
Button: $44.65
SB: $24.75
BB: $22.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, 3 folds, MP1 calls.

I'm really not looking for a call here, of course, but I thought this would be a good place to try and steal the blinds + limper.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($3.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $3.75</font>, Hero calls.

I think that this may be the place that needs to be played differently, I'm not sure that the call is good here at all. I also don't know if I can fold since my opp is pretty aggressive and the flop is also pretty dry. Maybe a raise is better? Or should I have just mucked.

Turn: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($10.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $9.5</font>, Hero calls.

Now I'm in a bit of a pickle, I've picked up a flush draw that I'm certain is good and there's still enough left behind to get a psb in on the river if I make it, and given my opp's betting I'm pretty sure that I'll get the rest of my stack if I do make the flush. Are my J and T outs good here at all?

River: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($29.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 is all-in $17.15</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $17.15 returned to MP1.

I really can't call this, or can I? How often does someone at this level bet this hard the whole way when I'm ahead. Do these people often bet all streets with a small pocket pair or, somehow, a worse T?

Any and all comments greatly appreciated.

[Dunkman]

I'm folding to the second barrel on the turn until I have a specific read that this guy is crazy.

[xwillience]

if your going to fold, i think you fold the turn. you can call the turn profitably with a FD.

[the machine]

given the action i think we dont have much FE on the turn which i may normally just shove here but hes been leading strong on all streets. without knowing he was capable of betting this big twice without a stronger holding then ours i play it the same way you did. also he pays off if another heart hits because the backdoor flush isnt usually thought about. so just calling the turn is ok.
if he were to bet around 6 on the turn id probably get it all in here

[AJGibson]

I think your raise per was a bit loose, I'd perfer calling your hand isn't that great but you have position.

On the turn your impiled odds are ~4:1, but this board is so uncordinated that there's a high possiblity that your oppoent has a set. This call doesn't look particularly profitable even if he doesn't. Save your money and wait for a better situation.

[xwillience]

Machine, i dont get why you are willing to get it all in here on the turn, this is either a set or an OP or a flat out bluff. VS a set we have 8 outs and cant even call his larger bet profitably let alone push profitably, and vs an OP, getting it in would mean putting it in when we are behind.

he obviously likes his hand, and if he has an OP we can peel the turn. but what OP limp-calls preflop. i really bad AA i guess but a set is much more likely. i either fold the turn all together, or maybe raise the flop and fold to a 3 bet.

[xGREGORx]

*grunch*

my gut tells me you're way behind on the flop (you're outkicked)... so the only thing to consider is do I think I can blow him off the best hand? - that's a read dependent play and I only make it if I have a good read... against others, I probably just fold to the flop bet.

[ama0330]

I think a flop raise is okay here, though I'd say his overbet is most likely to be a higher ten or two pair. I think that the turn here is a clear fold, you are getting no odds and your hand is obviously toast.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
Machine, i dont get why you are willing to get it all in here on the turn, this is either a set or an OP or a flat out bluff. VS a set we have 8 outs and cant even call his larger bet profitably let alone push profitably, and vs an OP, getting it in would mean putting it in when we are behind.

he obviously likes his hand, and if he has an OP we can peel the turn. but what OP limp-calls preflop. i really bad AA i guess but a set is much more likely. i either fold the turn all together, or maybe raise the flop and fold to a 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i said if i think we have some FE. in reading this post my first thought was i think villain may have a set here and we have no FE by shoving.

in some spots im saying i may shove here if i feel villain is weak enough

[Pythuz]

If its true that villain has two pair or a better top pair most often here then I've got about 12 outs or I'm around 3:1 to improve and, as was stated earlier, I'm getting about 4:1 in implied odds or thereabouts if I hit, so why would this be a bad call?

The problem, I guess, is determining how often villain has a set, since in this case we only have 8 outs and so we're only about 4.75:1 to improve.

So, I guess the question is, with a villain thats somewhat aggressive and pretty loose preflop, how often does he have a set in this spot?

[Pythuz]

After doing some more number crunching it seems that the breakeven point for this hand is when villain has a set 70% of the time and has two pair or a better top pair the remaining portion of the time.

Since we make money when villain has two pair / top pair, do you think that this is true more than 30% of the time?

[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
this is either a set or an OP or a flat out bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not AT?