TPTK facing ~PSB on river (50NL-6max)

[danny8]

Villain is a decent multitabling TAG (21/15/1.3) over ~2k hands, mostly from datamining, but we've played quite a few times together

My image is very LAG, ive been having pretty good cards the last 10-15 or so hands and ive raised pf about 70% of the last couple orbits and takin them down pf or with a cbet.


Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25./$0.50.
4 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $66.85
Hero: $59.20
SB: $16.10
BB: $52.10

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($3.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($21.75, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif ($21.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $17</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $17 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $21.75

Whats your plan on the flop? i think he very likely has air, he knows ill cbet almost any flop HU, so i call. Anyone prefer a raise/fold?

Should i have bet this turn? if i make $15 bet hes fairly likely to fold imo... AJ is a big part of his range here, And hes no maniac. + Its almost certainly gonna get me a free showdown after the river.

Is the river a standard fold, Or could he just be playing back at me with KJ etc, after ive taken down the vast majority of hands the last couple of orbits. Am i splitting at best?

comments on all streets appreciated, thanks!

[xwillience]

i call here.

AJ/KJ are a big part of his range.

[kaz2107]

him calling from the BB kinda scares me. i can see him being a flush draw here a decent part of the time. he could be using the idea of raising the flop in hopes of getting a free card on the turn. then when the flush card hit he didnt want to fire again and scare you away. and then fires a decent bet on the river so u cnt get off cheap or chek behind.

i probably fold it on the river because i am tryin to nit up with tptk lately and i think is one of those spots where i need to tghten up. if u asked me last week i prolly call but now i think it is a fold. he might have AJ a smaller chance he has KJ as i dont think he makes such a monster bet on the river with KJ since a decent player would want to get to show down cheaper with KJ i think.

[xwillience]

i agree with you Kaz, but its a pretty big bet that doenst really look like its for value. It could be QQ i guess and hes afriad of the flush... maybe this is a fold.


if 50% of the time we split, 10%we win, and 40% we lose, its definitely a fold.

[Shaddux]

The c/r on the flop looks like a strong move to me, but if he is a thinking player, a c/r bluff is a possibility. Has he played back at your cbets before at all?

I think you should have bet this turn.

River fold is standard. I can't imagine a "decent tag" having KJ here.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree with you Kaz, but its a pretty big bet that doenst really look like its for value. It could be QQ i guess and hes afriad of the flush... maybe this is a fold.


if 50% of the time we split, 10%we win, and 40% we lose, its definitely a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea that end part about 50% split and 10% is what i was mainly thinking about. i do believe it is a bit closer then that. i see it as about 40% split 20% win and 40% lose as a rough estimate here.

i just cant see villian having KJ all that often and there arent really many missed draws that villian could be bluffing at here on the end imo.

if villian wasnt decent this makes it a much easier call but given the read that villian is decent i think that is the deciding fact for me