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View Full Version : Jim Leach trailing in his house race

dorethawsp
10-12-2006, 06:42 PM
I don't know if this will hold up but thought it might make you all smile.

Down by one (http://www.mydd.com/)
BluffTHIS!
10-12-2006, 06:46 PM
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the latest house race analysis by the Cooke Report (http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_oct14.pdf) has his district listed as "likely republican", which although vulnerable, isn't nearly as bad as a "leans" or "tossup" designation.
dorethawsp
10-12-2006, 06:50 PM
Just linking the source I saw.
RemyXO
10-12-2006, 07:06 PM
What the heck is up with Arizonians??? BOOT KYL!
BennyMac
10-12-2006, 07:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the latest house race analysis by the Cooke Report (http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_oct14.pdf) has his district listed as "likely republican", which although vulnerable, isn't nearly as bad as a "leans" or "tossup" designation.

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That's been the conventional wisdom. This new poll is very surprising.
BluffTHIS!
10-12-2006, 08:08 PM
The Cooke Report is the more reliable source reflecting the consensus of polls, though of course anything is possible.
BennyMac
10-12-2006, 08:40 PM
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The Cooke Report is the more reliable source reflecting the consensus of polls, though of course anything is possible.

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There haven't been many polls for this race. It may not change the results, but I doubt the Cook Report has already incorporated this poll.
Moneyline
10-12-2006, 08:54 PM
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The Cooke Report is the more reliable source reflecting the consensus of polls, though of course anything is possible.

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There haven't been many polls for this race. It may not change the results, but I doubt the Cook Report has already incorporated this poll.

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I think you are right. Also, a point that Charlie Cook keeps harping on (and which I keep relaying here) is that overall public dissatisfaction with Republicans will likely cause many races to sway in favor of Democrats moreso than individual polls may suggest. Because of this, polls which may appear to be outliers are IMO far more likely to be correct than they would in more "normal" election years.
Lawman007
10-12-2006, 09:15 PM
I heard that both Kyl and Leach are gay, alcoholic, page-abusing pedophiles. Pass it on.
Berge20
10-12-2006, 10:20 PM
Just note the source, lord knows that will have some lean to it.

Try Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com)
mdrudeen
10-12-2006, 10:37 PM
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gay, alcoholic, page-abusing pedophiles.

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One of these things is not like the others
BennyMac
10-12-2006, 10:47 PM
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Just note the source, lord knows that will have some lean to it.

Try Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com)

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They don't do polls, they just collect them.

The polls were done by http://www.constituentdynamics.com/ and I don't know of any reason to believe their polls are are biased.
BluffTHIS!
10-12-2006, 10:49 PM
Nor do you know of any reason to believe that poll is more accurate than others or an average of all recent ones.
MagCFO
10-12-2006, 11:11 PM
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I heard that both Kyl and Leach are gay, alcoholic, page-abusing pedophiles. Pass it on.

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lol, I laughed at that one.

I don't know about the alcohol, but I did hear they are gay as they come. pass it on.
BennyMac
10-13-2006, 12:02 AM
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Nor do you know of any reason to believe that poll is more accurate than others or an average of all recent ones.

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Who said it was? Bias is different than error. What is this average of recent polls for the Leach race you refer to?
Berge20
10-13-2006, 10:04 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just note the source, lord knows that will have some lean to it.

Try Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com)

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't do polls, they just collect them.

The polls were done by http://www.constituentdynamics.com/ and I don't know of any reason to believe their polls are are biased.

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I know, but they give you all publically available ones, which is nice.
primetime32
10-13-2006, 10:10 AM
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I heard that both Kyl and Leach arerepublicans Pass it on.

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fyp
Vern
10-13-2006, 10:33 AM
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I heard that both Kyl and Leach are politicians Pass it on.

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fyp

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FYP
Busted_Flat
10-13-2006, 11:11 AM
The site doing the polls does not indicate any party affiliation, but most of their polls have Democrats doing very, very well. For example they have Patty Wetterling in Minnesota up 5 points when in previous polls she was down 11. They also have Dennis Hastert only up by 10 points over an opponent who spent less than $100K vs millions for Hastert.

I did notice they are including leans in their polls, which may be reported as undecided elsewhere.

Not sure what to make of it. It could be biased polling, or it could be that since these polls were taken in the last few days that there is a wave of Democratic support that has not yet been picked up on earlier polls. We can only hope for the latter, I guess.
BennyMac
10-13-2006, 12:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The site doing the polls does not indicate any party affiliation, but most of their polls have Democrats doing very, very well. For example they have Patty Wetterling in Minnesota up 5 points when in previous polls she was down 11. They also have Dennis Hastert only up by 10 points over an opponent who spent less than $100K vs millions for Hastert.

I did notice they are including leans in their polls, which may be reported as undecided elsewhere.

Not sure what to make of it. It could be biased polling, or it could be that since these polls were taken in the last few days that there is a wave of Democratic support that has not yet been picked up on earlier polls. We can only hope for the latter, I guess.

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I think the latter is the case (Gallup recently had the generic congressional vote at 20+ Dem), but it might well be temporary.

I live in Leach's district and this poll is the only nonpartisan poll for the district that I've seen.
Busted_Flat
10-13-2006, 12:27 PM
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I live in Leach's district and this poll is the only nonpartisan poll for the district that I've seen.

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Has the gaming issue been brought up at all in the campaign in Iowa? Do you have any sense that this might swing a few votes against Leach?

I'm originally from northern Iowa and live in Minneapolis now, so I don't get much news from down there.
MrWookie
10-13-2006, 12:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The site doing the polls does not indicate any party affiliation, but most of their polls have Democrats doing very, very well. For example they have Patty Wetterling in Minnesota up 5 points when in previous polls she was down 11. They also have Dennis Hastert only up by 10 points over an opponent who spent less than $100K vs millions for Hastert.

I did notice they are including leans in their polls, which may be reported as undecided elsewhere.

Not sure what to make of it. It could be biased polling, or it could be that since these polls were taken in the last few days that there is a wave of Democratic support that has not yet been picked up on earlier polls. We can only hope for the latter, I guess.

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With Hastert taking a bunch of flak over the Foley thing, I'm not at all surprised.
BennyMac
10-13-2006, 12:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
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I live in Leach's district and this poll is the only nonpartisan poll for the district that I've seen.

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Has the gaming issue been brought up at all in the campaign in Iowa? Do you have any sense that this might swing a few votes against Leach?


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Not that I've seen. I emailed him and got a lame canned response, but it hasn't really been part of the campaign. I think there were articles in the local papers on the bill and he and his spokesman commented, but it hasn't really been a debated issue.
iron81
10-13-2006, 01:30 PM
The source I use over in the Politics Forum for polling data is http://www.electoral-vote.com/ This site simply lists the latest polling data in each individual district (more precise than nationwide polls). A couple weeks ago, they had the GOP barely hanging on in the House and Senate. Now, they give the Dems a big edge in the House and a very small edge in the Senate. It's looking like the Dems will take control of at least the House.
Fishy McDonk
10-13-2006, 02:43 PM
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gay, alcoholic, page-abusing pedophiles.

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One of these things is not like the others

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Yes, alcoholism is a disease requiring treatment. Don't bash them for that.
BennyMac
10-13-2006, 02:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The source I use over in the Politics Forum for polling data is http://www.electoral-vote.com/ This site simply lists the latest polling data in each individual district (more precise than nationwide polls). A couple weeks ago, they had the GOP barely hanging on in the House and Senate. Now, they give the Dems a big edge in the House and a very small edge in the Senate. It's looking like the Dems will take control of at least the House.

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As you can see, the OP's poll is the only one listed for IA-02:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/house_polls.html