Time to move down? (seeking advice)

[cmn]

I have been playing online for six months now. I'm a 2d year
law student (with a master's in math...couldn't do the ph.d)
and a stay-at-home dad.

I tore through .25/.50 (10k hands @7BB/100) and .50/1 (25k
hands @4BB/100) playing weak/tight. I developed into a
18/9/3 player at 1/2 (50k hands @2.5BB/100).

My first 50k hands of 2/4 went well (2BB/100); however, my
last 25k hands have not gone well. I believe I am playing
in the same manner, but my stats have dropped from 18/9/3
over the first 50k to 17/7/2 over the last 25k, and I've
dropped 250BB over those 25k hands.

Originally, I attributed the drop to variance and a bad run
of cards as my w$sd has dropped from it's usual 52% to 47%
(I go to showdwon ~32%); however, after 25k hands and 250BB,
it's become obvious that the problem must lie with me.

To those that have weathered similar situations, would you
advise staying at 2/4 or dropping back down to 1/2?

Thank you.

[toss]

Its quite possible to run bad for 25k hands. Do a search on the Player Qtip.

As for your stats you should probably learn how to steal more. Players at Party 2/4 usually defend their blinds quite poorly. You can push them around without the fear of getting pushed back.

Also respond to hands and see if your advice matches everyone elses. See if your game postflop is solid or not.

[Twilight]

This is a perfectly normal scenario. A player runs well for a long time, then he has a short period of break even and his confidence is now all messed up. If you had broken even for 25k then played another 50k at 2bb/100 your confidence would be high, and you would be looking at improving yourself rather than moaning about some variance. You have played 160k hands of winning poker don't forget this.

The stats you supply is meaningless since it doesn't tell me much about your play. The only thing one might deduce is that you are running bad, which probably makes you doubt your decision making and as such are becoming less agressive and are tightening up.

Things to do:
1. Take a look at your game selection. Do you make a conscious effort to find good games to play at (using datamining and huds displays for instance) or are you just choosing tables with a high average pot (which often is problematic since a player sitting at a table with agressive play and are playing scared doesn't really combine well, for you that is..)

2. How many tables are you playing? Cutting down on the number of tables can help you focus more on making the correct decisions and worry less about variance.

3. Moving down might just be what the doctor ordered especially if your bankroll isn't capabe of withstanding much more losses.

4. Also trying out the 0.5/1 or 1/2 six max games might do you well. Both in terms of teaching proper agressive play in short handed pots (which are more frequent at 1/2 full and 2/4 than it was at the lower levels). And it can also teach you a thing or two about proper variance since 6max play is more swingy and can get you used to thinking long term and not bother worrying about short term stretches.