Clearing Blackjack WR quicker - Advice/Feedback on my strategy pls

[mustela]

What do people make of the following strategy for bonus clearing - it's an attempt to clear the bonus as quickly as possible, and with as low risk of busting out as possible, but still giving the chance of a big win.

I find betting a straight $1 per hand monotonous in the extreme - particularly if you havd $6000-$8000 to clear!!

So I've started this strategy, but not sure whether this is +EV or -EV - would really appreciate advice and feedback from the mathematcial wizzos who can calculate +EV


Example :

Casino Deposit $100, Bonus $100 , Total to play $200


If balance > $100 then bet $3 per hand (this is what you would start with)

If balance < $100 (i.e. losing on the deposit) then bet $1 per hand (this is to try and avoid busting out completely)

If balance > $200 then bet $5 per hand

If balance > $400 then bet $10 per hand (the maximum this strategy goes to)


So you increase the stakes as your balance rises, but decrease as your balance falls

I guess the downside is that, over time, variance should even out so if you lose heavily from the off then you will not get it back by betting less, and if you win heavily from the start then you will give it back quicker by increasing your bets.

However, equitable variance is over a lifetime whereas this is over a limited period, and this does speed bonus clearing - but is it at the expense of profit?

Does this strategy make any sense?



On a second note (and also to speed up bonus whoring) ...

When there is an option to play 3 or 5 hands at a time (against a single dealer hand), is it +EV, -EV or no difference if you do play 3 or 5 at a time?

Again I find myself tempted to "fully load" all of the bases to get through the WR quicker (at whatever stake I am playing, be that $1, $3 or $5), but unsure if this is costing me +EV or not.


TIA

[Ken_AA]

As long as you leave enough behind to split or double your EV is the same.

By playing more hands at once you increase varience because you are betting more, however playing 5 hands at $5 each is lower varience then playing one hand at $25.

However the best advice I can give is to not think of it in terms of single bonuses. You should not be disapointed when you lose your money, and shouldn't be over joyed when you run well. You should simply think of it as making X amount of EV. The rest will even out. All you can do is find an edge, and thats what you are doing.

Ken

[hogua]

Just start off betting $50 a hand and you'll finish up very quickly.

The EV isn't any worse than betting $1 a hand. You're not afraid of a little variance are you?

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
Just start off betting $50 a hand and you'll finish up very quickly.

The EV isn't any worse than betting $1 a hand. You're not afraid of a little variance are you?

[/ QUOTE ]

the EV is actually better if you're betting $50 a hand. so is the hourly rate.

I was betting $100/hand at intercasino until they closed off US.

[latefordinner]

and, if you want to be all technical about it you should reverse that strategy and bet higher the lower you get and lower the higher you get (think about it for a bit)

i prefer putting it all on the player in baccarat myself. a few times. then cash out.

[lotus guardian]

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and, if you want to be all technical about it you should reverse that strategy and bet higher the lower you get and lower the higher you get (think about it for a bit)


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This makes no sense. You should just use the same bet size no matter how much money you have left. Choose your bet size according to the kind of variance you are able to stand.

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i prefer putting it all on the player in baccarat myself. a few times. then cash out.

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You should be putting it on the banker.

[136913691369]

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and, if you want to be all technical about it you should reverse that strategy and bet higher the lower you get and lower the higher you get (think about it for a bit)



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[ QUOTE ]
This makes no sense. You should just use the same bet size no matter how much money you have left. Choose your bet size according to the kind of variance you are able to stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually he's right. Say you get a 200 + 200 bonus. The most optimum strategy would be to bet half your balance at all times, but not everyone wants to bet 200 or more per hand so say you start off with $20 bets. If you hit a losing streak and get down to a $200 balance you want to increase your bets to make it more likely to bust (remember that as your bust rate goes up so does the EV). If you're winning you might as well stick with the $20 bets since increasing your bet size now will have a lower probability of bust then when you first started with your $400 balance.

[kyleb]

$6000 - $8000 to clear?

I have $360,000 to clear at a casino. $1 bets lol.

[jimpo]

BTW, does anyone have a link to the page that had this "risk of ruin calculator" for BJ? You could input your bankroll and bet size and you would get the probability of busting out.

[ubercuber]

not a calculator but: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

[roamer590]

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$6000 - $8000 to clear?

I have $360,000 to clear at a casino. $1 bets lol.

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WOw, impressive! U rule

[vilemerchant]

The problem with varying your bets is you can actually come out ahead of EV and still bust, just by getting unlucky on the larger bets. The larger bets are going to dominate your results so why bother with smaller bets at all? If you start betting $1 once you've lost the bonus you'll never catch up no matter how ahead of EV your total bets are. I prefer just to flat bet $25 or $50 if i REALLY can't be bothered. When you bust intercasino you also get the added $1 in EV of not having to do a cashout :P

[mustela]

Thanks for all the replies - on reflection I guess flat betting is the way to go and I just need to assess the "risk of going bust" when setting my stake.

Found this nice chart by the way

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/blackjack.htm

[aka23]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, does anyone have a link to the page that had this "risk of ruin calculator" for BJ? You could input your bankroll and bet size and you would get the probability of busting out.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good idea. I just wrote a simple javascript calculator to do this. It lists chance of a gain, rather than chance of busting. The latter is a much more difficult calculation. It also includes values for the first two standard deviations from the expected return.

The link is http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm