Advice on blackjack variance

[Wadofella]

Hi,

I'm in the process of clearing my first ever casino bonus via Blackjack (CON to be exact, using the Crypto strategy from wizardofodds).

I need to wager $4,000. So far I've wagered $350 ($1 at a time) & I'm currently $50 down. That seems ridiculous to me & at that rate I'd lose then entire bonus plus my entire deposit before I even met the WR.

Anyway, here's my question: Is that kind of variance normal for BJ whoring? Never having tried it before I'd like to know if this is typical or unusual. Anecdotal stories welcome.

Thanks
Wado

[Antti]

50 credit downswings betting 1 credit a hand within 350 hands is very standard, coming from tens of thousands of hands of experience. You've just been running pretty bad. Just make sure the BJ variant you're playing doesn't have some strange rules that make the HA 20% or something like that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matt85]

Nothing to worry about, completely standard.

[MadMat]

Heh it gets a lot worse than that . . .

The good thing is that varience goes the other way too! just make sure you are following the chart accurately - I reckon most of the "bad varience" we get reported on here is more down to people tilting, chasing losses and not following the chart!

FWIW I blew £400 trying to clear a bonus with roulette yesterday, took less than an hour playing £1 red and £1 even! (Glad most of it was bonus)

Mat

[Wadofella]

Thanks for those replies so far.

The game I'm playing is a private table on the Casino On Net 21 Blackjack game. I'm using this chart, which I gather is the correct one, although it actually mentions Crypto:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/strategy/cryptologic.html

Am now $25 down after approx $700 wagered so recovered a bit.


regards
Wado

[ninenine_zoe]

hi wado,
you use the correct strategy card. whatever, i would look at casinobonuspages for the correct strat cards. in this case they are identical but you never know.
good luck

[OrianasDaad]

Two years of whoring bonuses at the microlimits, and it took a week of blackjack to really teach me the meaning of the word "variance".

It's an experience that every poker player should experience sometime.

[MadMat]

If you like Blackjack - try doing a few videopoker bonuses! You'll never complain about the varience in blackjack again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Mat

[latefordinner]

pontooooon

[vilemerchant]

Man. $1 bets? Double your EV per hour and do a couple shifts at McDonalds.

[Ainex]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like Blackjack - try doing a few videopoker bonuses! You'll never complain about the varience in blackjack again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

SO true. My stomach still has a hard time with VP bonuses.

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you like Blackjack - try doing a few videopoker bonuses! You'll never complain about the varience in blackjack again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Mat

[/ QUOTE ]

SO true. My stomach still has a hard time with VP bonuses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but if you do enough of them you are bound to hit a royal and let me tell you hitting a royal while doing a +EV bonus is soooo sweet.

[Wadofella]

An update on this. When you said it could get much worse, you weren't kidding....

Have now cleared $2,000 out of $4,000 following the strategy exactly & betting $1 at a time. Am now $130 down.

It's such a joke I've started keeping records of the play. Here's some of the highlights:

Lost 29 hands in a row (are you kidding me?)

Played for 1 hour (I can do approx 250 bets in 1 hour) without getting BJ once. During that time the dealer made BJ 8 times.

Lost 9 times in a row on hands where I'd doubled.


I bow to everyone's superior knowledge here but I'm finding it hard to believe this crap is typical.



/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Wado

[aka23]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,

I'm in the process of clearing my first ever casino bonus via Blackjack (CON to be exact, using the Crypto strategy from wizardofodds).

I need to wager $4,000. So far I've wagered $350 ($1 at a time) & I'm currently $50 down. That seems ridiculous to me & at that rate I'd lose then entire bonus plus my entire deposit before I even met the WR.

Anyway, here's my question: Is that kind of variance normal for BJ whoring? Never having tried it before I'd like to know if this is typical or unusual. Anecdotal stories welcome.

Thanks
Wado

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing 50 betting units over 350 bets is a little more than 2 standard deviations beyond the average return... unlikely, but not impossible. More detailed BJ variance tables are at http://www.beatingbonuses.com/blackjack.htm .

I've played tens of thousands of hands at casino-on-net and done well above the expected return. I found that progessive betting had some utility, but not enough to confirm anything non-random.

[aka23]

[ QUOTE ]
An update on this. When you said it could get much worse, you weren't kidding....

Have now cleared $2,000 out of $4,000 following the strategy exactly & betting $1 at a time. Am now $130 down.

It's such a joke I've started keeping records of the play. Here's some of the highlights:

Lost 29 hands in a row (are you kidding me?)

Played for 1 hour (I can do approx 250 bets in 1 hour) without getting BJ once. During that time the dealer made BJ 8 times.

Lost 9 times in a row on hands where I'd doubled.


I bow to everyone's superior knowledge here but I'm finding it hard to believe this crap is typical.



/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Wado

[/ QUOTE ]
130 down with 2000 bets is a little over 2 standard deviations again (more than last time). But what is really abnormal is losing 29 times in a row. The odds of this happening randomly are roughly 1 in a billion. I'd recommend saving a screenshot showing the losing sequential hands. Even if support doesn't admit a problem, the screenshot evidence will have repurcussions on gambling forums.

[Wadofella]

This is total bullsh*t. Now $180 down after $3,000.

[Wadofella]

FWIW this is now finished. Ended up $160 down after $4,000.

I did try to get the history - when I click on history & select the game I was playing I get "Our records indicate that you do not have a recent History for this game."

Outstanding.


I don't think I'll be trying this again, I lack the temperament or the luck that you need for it.


Thanks for the replies anyway.


Wado

[koolsavas]

i lost 160 bets over 4000 wr before on playtech bj @ $1/hand. and i certainly lost ~15 hands in a row, not as impressive as yours, but j/m. also on my first bonus ever. it happens, but i certainly have won a lot to go with the big losses. stick to it. i'm on a losing stint, busted all my monthlies so far... had to reload my neteller urk! i sympathise. take'er easy!