Non-US thread

[Herrigel]

How will the Online Poker Universe look like for us Europeans, Canadians, etc. in a couple of weeks?

[Chrysiptera]

As has been said before; less players..

My only comment about the landscape of the future is that I wouldn't be surprised to see many of the struggling online poker rooms go under. Without the huge American market I don't see how the small timers can compete..

In any case, you'll see me on WSEX as long as they let me.

-Chry

[kabouter]

I think the best thing for us to do is play at sites that doesn't take us customers. (everest, party, maybe stars?) This way we won't go down when the site ends up in U.S. govt hands.

[kabouter]

Ohw and if anyone needs help getting all set-up in Amsterdam just pm me and maybe we can arrange something against a fee /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]
Ohw and if anyone needs help getting all set-up in Amsterdam just pm me and maybe we can arrange something against a fee /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have room for two dogs?

[TheMetetron]

Moving to Sweden a month ago looks absolutely brilliant now, doesn't it?

[MrHenry]

Best case scenario, it will be a lot quieter with a lot less games for less money and a lot less fish but otherwise life will go on.

Worst case scenario some firms will go bust leaving the players out of pocket and there will be a total lack of confidence in online poker.

[kabouter]

Two dogs? How many square meters are we looking at? And what are you willing to spend /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
Moving to Sweden a month ago looks absolutely brilliant now, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Highly inappropriate.

[Peter666]

The short term is [censored], but we always have Asia to look forward to in the future. I am dying to play against rich Japanese businessmen when poker takes off in that part of the world.

[kabouter]

[ QUOTE ]
Best case scenario, it will be a lot quieter with a lot less games for less money and a lot less fish but otherwise life will go on.

Worst case scenario some firms will go bust leaving the players out of pocket and there will be a total lack of confidence in online poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

On party at this time of the day you see a lot of european players, including european fish. I don't think the amount of fish will change, only a couple of big players who are willing to flee to the promised land (europe) might affect the shark/fish ratio.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
On party at this time of the day you see a lot of european players, including european fish. I don't think the amount of fish will change, only a couple of big players who are willing to flee to the promised land (europe) might affect the shark/fish ratio.

[/ QUOTE ]

A stack of the money comes from the US. The best time of day to play has always been in the evening US time.

I think we can expect to see the games toughen up significantly, but still be beatable.

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]
Two dogs? How many square meters are we looking at? And what are you willing to spend /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I was hoping talking more in acres. Outside dog's that I can't leave behind, otherwise I would be gone in a few weeks. Arrgh.

[kabouter]

Well outside of Amsterdam there are lots of cities where you can get acres it is going to cost you a bit though.

How does this sound to you 19000 square meters of land:
http://images.funda.nl/woningen/img/01/01142/011420068384200010000001.jpg

[Richas]

The previously non US sites (ladbrokes, betfair.....) will be pretty unaffected the games there will not change much, might even get a few refugees from a quiet Party.

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]
Well outside of Amsterdam there are lots of cities where you can get acres it is going to cost you a bit though.

How does this sound to you 19000 square meters of land:
http://images.funda.nl/woningen/img/01/01142/011420068384200010000001.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

That looks nice, count me in if there is no place to play in the next few weeks. As for money, we can surely work that out.

[kabouter]

Let's wait and see what happens in the next weeks, if [censored] really hits the fan. Just pm me, and I will advice all you refugees in what to look out for when moving to europe.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's wait and see what happens in the next weeks, if [censored] really hits the fan. Just pm me, and I will advice all you refugees in what to look out for when moving to europe.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget to mention the biggest problem of they can't move to Europe. It isn't the easiest thing ever to get permanent residnecy in a european country. In fact, it's impossible for most of them.

And country-hopping isn't an option here because of the Schengen agreement.

[xerxesthegod]

We sure will have less fish but we'll have less shark too.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Moving to Sweden a month ago looks absolutely brilliant now, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. except for the part where you live in sweden.

[Herrigel]

[ QUOTE ]
We sure will have less fish but we'll have less shark too.

[/ QUOTE ]
And less table selection.

New winrate = Old Winrate / x

x = what? 2? 4? more?

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
How will the Online Poker Universe look like for us Europeans, Canadians, etc. in a couple of weeks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Earn rate slashed by 80% is my guess...

[callme]

I normally never play during the US-peak times and i can say i´m happy with what i see (MSNL). I´m pretty sure, that the games will get harder, but i also like to look at it from a diffrent perspective. Sites like Party will be able to focus more on the european and other developing markets, since this markets still has a lot of potential, e.g. in Germany poker is slowly gaining in popularity (a few years ago most people here didn´t had a clue how to play poker at all).


Also have a look at the quarterly reports from Party you can see that 46 % of all new signups were outside the US - so shutting down the US might be a though thing to swallow but it´s not the end of the world as many on this boards point it out (as long as you´re not a US-resident)...

[xerxesthegod]

If there are people who make 2/100 in a 30/60 limit game I don't see why we couldn't make that at 5/10. I don't think 5/10 after the ban will be harder than 30/60 right now.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Moving to Sweden a month ago looks absolutely brilliant now, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. except for the part where you live in sweden.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ever been to Sweden?

[Herrigel]

[ QUOTE ]
If there are people who make 2/100 in a 30/60 limit game I don't see why we couldn't make that at 5/10. I don't think 5/10 after the ban will be harder than 30/60 right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
That would translate into a former 30/60 pro is losing 5/6 of his income. That's a lot, huh?

[ohead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Moving to Sweden a month ago looks absolutely brilliant now, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. except for the part where you live in sweden.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ever been to Sweden?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im from Sweden and this bill affects me pretty much too, Since most of my winrate comes from weakpassive americans.

AND some people in the socialistic goverment of Sweden were talking about a ban to internet poker here. Lucky us though that they got voted out of office last month /images/graemlins/smile.gif


But still its alot of money dissapearing for us playing poker even if we dont live in america.

[Spy Dog]

Nobody really knows the fish:shark ratio on these poker sites when you break it down by US and non-US players. Certainly the US provides the most fish by sheer numbers, but it also provides the most sharks, as well. It's not the numbers that matter, it's the ratio.

If the fish:shark ratio is 3:1 for all US players and 4:1 for non-US based players then the non-US pros will benefit.

My guess is that the ratio is pretty equal, so non-US players won't see a huge difference in their ability to earn. However, if it becomes possible for US based sharks to skirt their way around the law then it becomes a bad situation for all pros.

Game selection will become the broader problem for the pros and I think high stakes players will have a more difficult time finding enough games to play, especially if they are used to playing 4+ tables at a time. I think someone who plays low or low-middle stakes should be OK.

Also, since the biggest growth markets are non-US, this would benefit non-US players, as newer players are most certainly worse.

[jukofyork]

[ QUOTE ]
How will the Online Poker Universe look like for us Europeans, Canadians, etc. in a couple of weeks?

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.angelfire.com/nc/gryphon/images/7904DeadFish.jpg

Juk /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
If the fish:shark ratio is 3:1 for all US players and 4:1 for non-US based players then the non-US pros will benefit.

My guess is that the ratio is pretty equal, so non-US players won't see a huge difference in their ability to earn.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's evidence against this. Empirically, play has always been looser and worse during peak US times. And theoretically, the US is a very rich country and has a lot of dumb/bored rich people, so there should be more spare cash floating online.

I'd be shocked if the games didn't get significantly harder. I'm expecting my hourly rate to halve, at least.

[nation]

why isn't anyone talking about moving to canada?

my thoughts: i think games will obviously be much tougher, but I do think there are enough european players/fish to comfortably 9 table as usual. may not be able to do it all on party anymore, but will definitely be able to do it across several different sites, looking for good tables.

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the fish:shark ratio is 3:1 for all US players and 4:1 for non-US based players then the non-US pros will benefit.

My guess is that the ratio is pretty equal, so non-US players won't see a huge difference in their ability to earn.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's evidence against this. Empirically, play has always been looser and worse during peak US times. And theoretically, the US is a very rich country and has a lot of dumb/bored rich people, so there should be more spare cash floating online.

I'd be shocked if the games didn't get significantly harder. I'm expecting my hourly rate to halve, at least.

[/ QUOTE ]


Moreover, just because there is a ratio of 3:1 or whatever doesn't mean that that is a smooth distribution. Some tables will have a 6:0 ratio of fish to sharks while others it might be 1:5. The more tables, the more choice of games. This comes about with more players. Secondly, several of the sharks will surely be creative and figure out ways to remain playing, while none of the fish will go to such lengths.

[00Snitch]

i like playing poker... but moving to the other side of the world just so you can play online.... come on... go to a casino

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
why isn't anyone talking about moving to canada?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because like Europe, Canada doesn't just let people move there. Again you need family ties or willingness to start a business (something that won't work for Europe). I really think Central/So. America is the best option.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
i like playing poker... but moving to the other side of the world just so you can play online.... come on... go to a casino

[/ QUOTE ]

If I could get 500+ hands/hour live, I wouldn't be complaining. 40 just doesn't cut it. I could spend 10 hours a day in a casino and hope to *maybe* get 10k+ hands in a given month.

[00Snitch]

yer, or you could spends tens of thousands of dollars re-locacating to the other side of the world...

im waiting for a trip report from someone relocating specifically as a reaction to this new law or whatever it is

[ok2aa]

ever paid taxes in sweden?

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
ever paid taxes in sweden?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't have to. Gambling in the EU is tax free.

[stewartkev]

For the UK immigration rules:
http://www.ind.homeoffice.gov.uk/lawandpolicy/immigrationrules/part6

If you were "self-employed" you need £200000, approx $380000

Too many pages for me to read the rest of the rules regarding skilled workers, etc

Here in Scotland it's a bit easier due to our fresh talent initiative. You need to have certain skills though. Hand-reading doesn't count.

[Spy Dog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ever paid taxes in sweden?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't have to. Gambling in the EU is tax free.

[/ QUOTE ]

You still need to pay Uncle Sam......

You are kidding yourself if you think don't need to pay taxes just because you live in Sweden. I am a US citizen living in Ireland and I pay taxes on my winnings.

Maybe you are setting yourself up as a schedule C gambler and are trying to get your 1st 80k tax free. I'm not sure if this works. If you have gotten advice from a CPA or someone experienced in this matter, please PM me.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ever paid taxes in sweden?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't have to. Gambling in the EU is tax free.

[/ QUOTE ]

You still need to pay Uncle Sam......

You are kidding yourself if you think don't need to pay taxes just because you live in Sweden. I am a US citizen living in Ireland and I pay taxes on my winnings.

Maybe you are setting yourself up as a schedule C gambler and are trying to get your 1st 80k tax free. I'm not sure if this works. If you have gotten advice from a CPA or someone experienced in this matter, please PM me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've filed Schedule C the last two years while I lived in the US. I intend to continue filing Schedule C when I live over here. I am taking the $80k exemption. It's earned income baby (Schedule C income by definition is earned).

[silvershade]

Hmmm, in Euro peak times I'm pretty sure that the games will be softer because some portion of the US multitablers will disappear whilst a lot of the US fish were never online at that time anyway. So for a Euro playing in the evening here i'm pretty sure there will be less games but they will be softer. If you play later in US peaktime I'd guess the games will get tougher though.

My prediction is a smaller market with some small operators going under which results at consolidation of players on fewer sites, on these sites the best time to play will now be earlier than currently and there will be fewer tables than currently.

Overall i think it will get easier for a part time Euro to make some cash out of poker whilst simultaneously it will get harder for a full time pro.

[Ray Of Light]

Surprisingly enough, non-US poker players will be fine. The online gambling landscape has certainly changed for all poker players, but as a non-US player, we will feel its impact the least.

Its true, a lot of the small poker rooms are done for; but the medium/large European networks are fine (such as B2B and Cryptos since over 70% of their business is non-US anyway). Also, the big daddy's of the poker world are going to be brought back down to size, for example Party will no longer peak at 70k, but rather peak at 20k instead (70% drop in action).

Will this mean that poker will no longer be profitable? Not at all! Back in 2000 when there were WAY fewer games running than there are now, poker players where making good money. Its just that to make good money then you had to be playing $10/$20 upwards (rather than twelve tabling $3/$6 like you can now).

The fish are still out there and always have been; but the low limit multi-tabling tag professional will likely be a thing of the past. This is because we may find that we are no longer able to open up one poker room and find 12 good tables to play on; we will now maybe have to open up two or three different poker rooms and find maybe 5 or 6 tables between them all.

This will mean that although the poker room landscape has changed, it is not over, we simply need to adapt.

So basically, its not the non-US players I feel sorry for right now (the gambling industry is a growing 3 billion dollar industry OUTSIDE of the US, so the money is out there outside the shores of America).

Its the US poker pro's who need our words of encouragement and support right now...

[Jintster]

I play low level SNGs and tournies mainly in the evenings UK time and don't think I'll be hugely affected.

I feel absolutely gutted for the many Americans who share my hobby.

[Toyboy]

Positive:
*poker sites will need to focus more on Europe (commercials, European Poker Tour etc etc). Could be good for fish ratio European peak hours.
*no more US sharks playing European prime time (for me playing European hours it isn't the US fish that makes up most of my Party Poker winnings)

Negative:
*the poker boom came from the US. Will it survive on its own in Europe? I'd imagine the WPT, WSOP etc will fall dramatically in popularity when US online poker dies. I'm afraid this will hit us in Europe pretty hard.
*my government (Norway) will certainly be VERY inspired by a US ban; maybe some day they'll pass a similar bill...

BTW, seems like "everybody" is waiting for the Asians? Why is it likely gambling will be allowed there? Forget about China, Thailand etc, what Asian countries are we waiting for? Maybe Japan, but how likely is this?

[K䲰䮥n]

[ QUOTE ]
*my government (Norway) will certainly be VERY inspired by a US ban; maybe some day they'll pass a similar bill...

[/ QUOTE ]

You should had joined the EU while you had the change /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*my government (Norway) will certainly be VERY inspired by a US ban; maybe some day they'll pass a similar bill...

[/ QUOTE ]

You should had joined the EU while you had the change /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Bah, NEVER!

hrm, anyway...If our government did pass such a law, I'm sure there's going to be some way around it, and it's not like it would affect the market at all if Norwegian fishies can't play anymore /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
*my government (Norway) will certainly be VERY inspired by a US ban; maybe some day they'll pass a similar bill...

[/ QUOTE ]
Ain't that the truth. I'm thinking Trond Giske has a huge hard on as we speak. Thats not even mentioning KRF...*vomit*

[primetime32]

As an american, I wish one of your countries attacks the US and takes us over.

[ginko]

From what I understand, European wealth is spread throughout the people, while US wealth is controlled by a small number of people (98% of our wealth is in the hands of 4% of the people, think Bill Gates and others).

So in Europe, the average person has more money.

[callme]

I would say the wealth distribution between US and Europe is pretty much the same, maybe in Europe the poorest are a bit more wealthy than in US due to better social systems in some countries, but thats probably all that differentiate them.

[kabouter]

True

On the emigrating thing, you will need a work/residence permit. This can be gotten trough a couple of things:

A. Family
B. Speaking the language (forget about that, not possible in a week /images/graemlins/wink.gif )
C. Willingness to work
d. Are you coming alone or bringing your whole family

Now assuming you are coming alone, just show them your BR and your interest to start a small e-business company and make it go busto once you've got your residence permit /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[callme]

I don´t think, that the european landscape will look the way it looks now in 12-24 months from now. It´s a very splitted market without a real market leader like Party is now on international sight.
So we probably will see a lot of consolidation in the way of takeovers which will generate a new market leader. Wasn´t that the way how Party became market leader in the first place - through take overs?

[ QUOTE ]
Surprisingly enough, non-US poker players will be fine. The online gambling landscape has certainly changed for all poker players, but as a non-US player, we will feel its impact the least.

Its true, a lot of the small poker rooms are done for; but the medium/large European networks are fine (such as B2B and Cryptos since over 70% of their business is non-US anyway). Also, the big daddy's of the poker world are going to be brought back down to size, for example Party will no longer peak at 70k, but rather peak at 20k instead (70% drop in action).

Will this mean that poker will no longer be profitable? Not at all! Back in 2000 when there were WAY fewer games running than there are now, poker players where making good money. Its just that to make good money then you had to be playing $10/$20 upwards (rather than twelve tabling $3/$6 like you can now).

The fish are still out there and always have been; but the low limit multi-tabling tag professional will likely be a thing of the past. This is because we may find that we are no longer able to open up one poker room and find 12 good tables to play on; we will now maybe have to open up two or three different poker rooms and find maybe 5 or 6 tables between them all.

This will mean that although the poker room landscape has changed, it is not over, we simply need to adapt.

So basically, its not the non-US players I feel sorry for right now (the gambling industry is a growing 3 billion dollar industry OUTSIDE of the US, so the money is out there outside the shores of America).

Its the US poker pro's who need our words of encouragement and support right now...

[/ QUOTE ]

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
True

On the emigrating thing, you will need a work/residence permit. This can be gotten trough a couple of things:

A. Family
B. Speaking the language (forget about that, not possible in a week /images/graemlins/wink.gif )
C. Willingness to work
d. Are you coming alone or bringing your whole family

Now assuming you are coming alone, just show them your BR and your interest to start a small e-business company and make it go busto once you've got your residence permit /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

It always amazes me how eager the Dutch are to let everybody into their country...

[snoopy1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Best case scenario, it will be a lot quieter with a lot less games for less money and a lot less fish but otherwise life will go on.

Worst case scenario some firms will go bust leaving the players out of pocket and there will be a total lack of confidence in online poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

On party at this time of the day you see a lot of european players, including european fish. I don't think the amount of fish will change, only a couple of big players who are willing to flee to the promised land (europe) might affect the shark/fish ratio.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry to say that the majority of fish are American. As a UK citizen and a pro' online player, it's difficult to comprehend how your ban can affect me and my life so severely.

I am deeply disheartened by the whole matter. My only hope is that someone finds a loophole that the casual player is able to utilise without any fuss whatsoever.

[snoopy1239]

[ QUOTE ]
We sure will have less fish but we'll have less shark too.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but the amount of fish lost will be so much bigger.