you guys overestimate the fish ...

[dknightx]

a large majority of the fish WILL NOT, i repeat, WILL NOT want to go through all the trouble JUST to play poker. The ease of depositing money (especially when on tilt) was one of the reasons for such a large increase of players. You have to remember that 2+2 does not represent the average player ... in actuality we represent a VERY SMALL percentage of the poker playing population. Sure WE can figure out ways to still transfer money in and out (transfer to someone in europe, western union, etc, etc), but the average player is:

1) not going to want to go through all the trouble.
2) will be more hestitant doing something that is CLEARLY circumventing the law

There are a couple other reasons, but you are fooling yourself if you don't think those 2 reasons will have a MAJOR impact on the number of players. Sure its not going to be 80%, it probably won't even be 50%, but even a 30% drop in player base is a HUGE hit for a lot of people to take.

True, this probably only affects players at the lower limits more than the higher limits ... however my point is just that even if this is not the end of online poker, all these discussions about how it will be so easy for US to keep playing is useless. Who cares if WE can still play, if the fish can not do it in a way thats less than 2 times as complicated (and just as fast), it will make a huge impact. Don't forget ... the average person is a lazy bum and likes to make impulsive decisions. If they can't make those dumb and impulsive decisions anymore (because of how slow and difficult it is to deposit more money), then they just won't play anymore.

True, this is definitely not the end of the world, but the poker bubble has definitely burst, and I expect the average low-mid limit player to lose, on average, 1BB/100.

[ed8383]

I don't think anyone is overestimating the fish, infact most people in this forum know this will probably kill the american online poker market. Average players that play online poker for fun aka "the fish" will not go through all the trouble, they will stick to homegames with budies and local casinos. The only ones left from America will be the serious players, those that make serious money at this and the percentage of such players are low compared to average players.

[dknightx]

well i think most people fall under one of two categories:

1) overestimate the fish
2) overreacting

I think we need to understand it will most likely fall somewhere inbetween

[HollywoodDB]

I disagree. I think the only players we will lose will be the weak-tight 12/4/1 guys. This is not where we make most of our money. I think the maniacs and action junkies will find ways. The 55/26/12 guy who plays 3/6 will find a way to gambool.

[matrix]

you underestimate the power of greed.

some greedy person somewhere will find a way to enable hapless fish to fund their poker accounts before too long easily and legally from within the US. (there is a huge demand for such a service - any person who could provide such a service stands to make a hideous amount of money)

When that happens we are back to the good old days.

[big e]

I have to agree with dknightx, most fish just want to click and play. If the have to go through a couple of hops to set up there accounts a signification number will not bother.

Then all it will take is one or two high profile cases of banks being prosecuted or the threat of it and they will say to there customers we noticed to tried to deposit money to xyz. This is illegal and if you continue we will report you to the authorities. At this point most fish will no longer bother.

Also it will cost the government nothing not one cent to make the banks enforce this. They will just make it part of the governance requirement and they will end up having to do this to pass there next audit.

[boomshakalaka]

most threads that Ive read through seem to be based in some sort of fact, if not logical deduction. This thread is probably in the lead for most conjecture.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
most threads that Ive read through seem to be based in some sort of fact, if not logical deduction. This thread is probably in the lead for most conjecture.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. * all the way, baby.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
most threads that Ive read through seem to be based in some sort of fact, if not logical deduction. This thread is probably in the lead for most conjecture.

[/ QUOTE ]

at least its a couple pegs above the threads where some lazy person comes in and asks questions that have already been asnwered 30 times because he cant be bothered to read.

[The Funky Llama]

but aren't IGMPay and Neteller a pain in the ass to set up? Fish depsoit through there don't they?

[checkmate36]

[ QUOTE ]
a large majority of the fish WILL NOT, i repeat, WILL NOT want to go through all the trouble JUST to play poker

[/ QUOTE ]

I was surprised when a bunch of the local fish I know stopped playing online when they heard the bill was going to be voted on in the house.

In their minds it was already a law and they didn't want to go to jail. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

A few have asked me if the feds are going to bust me because I still play. Since they saw something on 60 mins that was just a bunch of [censored] they think its the law of the land.

I think alot of fish will be scared to play. Even if it does become regulated and taxed, the market will have lost some of the players who made the games nice and juicy.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
but aren't IGMPay and Neteller a pain in the ass to set up? Fish depsoit through there don't they?

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly.

[daedalus]

Ok, here's a fact...I'm a fish. I started online a few months ago and didn't have a clue how to get money to a site when I found out my CC transaction wasn't going to work.

1 hour later a found a 3rd party financial intermediary that served the same purpose (Neteller).

Isn't that exactly where we are now? Just need to figure out the legal 3rd party financial intermediary that can make this transaction occur within 48 hours and the fish are IN. What am I missing?
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[checkmate36]

[ QUOTE ]
1 hour later a found a 3rd party financial intermediary that served the same purpose (Neteller).



[/ QUOTE ]

My uncle is a fish of the highest of levels. This guy reloads 5x's per week and screams "4" at the computer when he holds pocket 4's and decided to see a flop after putting in half his stack pre-flop.

When he changed banks he could no longer play because he couldn't fund his acct with his visa anymore. I told him about neteller and he was completely baffled, didn't trust it, said it had to be rigged.

For every fish who finds neteller, how many are like uncle who won't play anymore? Loosing these players is the heart of the problem.

[dknightx]

i gave an estimate of 30% drop in fish. If you don't agree with that number, then please tell me what you think a REASONABLE number is. Just because 50% of fish known how to use neteller, it doesn't mean those other 50% are going to use neteller once their other means of financing no longer work.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
i gave an estimate of 30% drop in fish. If you don't agree with that number, then please tell me what you think a REASONABLE number is. Just because 50% of fish known how to use neteller, it doesn't mean those other 50% are going to use neteller once their other means of financing no longer work.

[/ QUOTE ]

guys, its totally and completely impossible to make these ridiculous estimates until we have any idea how this legislation is going to be interpreted and applied. you're just making guesses, i guess for entertainment purposes.

[FastForward7]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, here's a fact...I'm a fish. I started online a few months ago and didn't have a clue how to get money to a site when I found out my CC transaction wasn't going to work.

1 hour later a found a 3rd party financial intermediary that served the same purpose (Neteller).

Isn't that exactly where we are now? Just need to figure out the legal 3rd party financial intermediary that can make this transaction occur within 48 hours and the fish are IN. What am I missing?
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not missing anything. People are freaking out and acting as if pre-bill the fish only had to visualize money leaving their checking account and moving to a poker site and it would happen. The reality is poker sites have always been a PITA to fund when you first start. Only difference is fish will now have to find a different PITA way to do it.

When I first started on Pacific 3 or 4 years ago I first tried my CC which of course didn't work. Then I tried Neteller after a little research and they were blocked by my CCs too. Then I tried a third party one time use CC which didn't work with Neteller. Finally I stumbled on epassporte which worked. All that work = PITA. Nothing's changed.

[Lawman007]

[ QUOTE ]
guys, its totally and completely impossible to make these ridiculous estimates until we have any idea how this legislation is going to be interpreted and applied. you're just making guesses, i guess for entertainment purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow! That's like the pot calling the kettle black. When did you stop pulling things out of your butt? It had to have been within the past 5 minutes. LOL

[dknightx]

you are right, but still, based on my initial reading and interpretation of the bill I think it is safe to assume that SOMETHING will happen. Even if fish stop playing because they fear the law, SOMETHING will change. I, just like everyone else, want everything to stay the same as it is now, but we are best not to overestimate (or underestimate) anything at this point ... and we shouldn't overreact either.

[mlagoo]

FF7,

agreed. my first time that i tried to play online (had never read a book, etc., i was a fish), i tried to deposit through my bank, then my CC, got scared of neteller/firepay, and so used a phone card to deposit online, which was a huge pain. but it seemed interesting, so i spent a couple hours doing it.

it's just impossible to tell at this point exactly what effect this legislation is going to have, but i think if the sites can think of a way to let the US players deposit, they will, and they'll spend a lot of time making it as easy as possible.

[dknightx]

guys, theres a difference between signing up for the FIRST TIME, and then suddenly your SIMPLE MEANS of depositing/withdrawing are gone ...

[Lawman007]

[ QUOTE ]
it's just impossible to tell at this point exactly what effect this legislation is going to have

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from a guy who wanted to bet me $2k an hour ago that he will still be playing online poker in two weeks. LOL

[mlagoo]

bet is still available my mang

[Lawman007]

[ QUOTE ]
guys, its totally and completely impossible to make these ridiculous estimates until we have any idea how this legislation is going to be interpreted and applied. you're just making guesses, i guess for entertainment purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Talking out of both sides of your mouth, aren't you? LOL

[Our House]

I think you guys are overestimating the hoops that you think fish have to jump through.

In the event of financial restrictions, the burden of responsibility to get money into sites will be on the sites, not the players. Rest assured, the sites will be doing everything in their power to make this as easy as possible for us. For example, Party might change the methods by which IGM-Pay gets money...and if they ever did that, we wouldn't even know the difference between pre-bill IGM and post-bill IGM.

The sites will be doing all the work for their US players. These "hoops" you speak of will probably be something along the lines of an initial phone call and one (if any) extra mouse clicks.

[mlagoo]

Post deleted by Performify

[gummy d]

Well said hollywood. People throw the word fish out too liberally. It doesn't mean anything. The word fish implies that said person just doesn't understand the game, is a newbie, an idiot. This is simply not true.
Most of the money won in poker is from people with gambling problems who understand the game but cannot acutalize or utilize their understanding. Players on tilt (like having a temporary gambling problem) is the other major source of income and we all fall prey to that from time to time. Much much further down the list is the fish (new player) or recreational gambler that doesn't even play that much anyway.
So yeah, players and gamblers (and the line is pretty thin really) will figure out a way to play. I know i will unless their is real threat of serious consequence: confiscated funds, prison time etc...

[Lawman007]

Post deleted by Performify

[mlagoo]

i actually hate the negative connotations ("idiot") that go along with the word "fish." but it takes too long to type "person who happens to be bad at poker for whatever reason." because the fact is these could easily be engineers or doctors or judges or whatever, sharp people who just happen to not understand poker, or just don't care about the money and are just playing to have fun and gamble.

so yeah, i dunno, minor derailment, but i just use the term "fish" out of laziness, not out of contempt or anything like that.

[Guthrie]

How have most people been funding their account up to now?

I first heard about Paradise three years ago while playing at the Bike. I downloaded it and tried to deposit with my Visa card. It was declined. Kind of pissed me off because I had about a $30,000 credit line. I called and found out that my Visa card wouldn't fund gambling sites.

So I went to Paradise and looked for another option. It was completely baffling, Neteller, Firepay, several others as I recall. I tried Firepay because it sounded cool, but it ended up too much trouble, so I didn't deposit anything.

I moved back to Texas a few months later, changed banks, and finally decided to get serious about depositing. Again, so many options. I finally found this place and bonus whoring forums, read a lot of posts, and settled on Neteller. It took several attempts before I got Neteller set up, but by this time, since the nearest legal cardroom was about 400 miles away, I was committed to playing online poker.

I'm still amazed that so many people find a way to get their money to poker sites. So I have hope that enough of them will continue to do so to make the games profitable. What if the number of players drops to what it was three years ago? Is this the end of the world?

[Lawman007]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still amazed that so many people find a way to get their money to poker sites. So I have hope that enough of them will continue to do so to make the games profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, as long as you and all the fish move to a foreign country where you can actually access on online poker site, you should be all set.

[dknightx]

no of course not, which was my point, i think that we will lose a noticable chunk of players, resulting in an average loss of about 1BB/100 for low/mid limit players. I do not think this bill will affect high limit players very much, if at all.

[Jdanz]

Post deleted by Performify

[JPFisher55]

From what I have read on this board, it is the professional or semi-professionals who are panicking the most, not the fish. I think that most fish are youngsters who will enjoy the challenge of finding ways around this law. Who speeds more or smokes mariuana more, college age kids or middle age folks?

[Lawman007]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not think this bill will affect high limit players very much, if at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only the American ones who currently play online.

[Lawman007]

Post deleted by Performify

[Jdanz]

Post deleted by Performify

[checkmate36]

I thought I read on partys website somewhere that a phone card with long distance minutes could even fund your acct.

Im almost positive I seen it and I think it was party. I remember thinking WTF when I read it. This is the proper attitude we need from the giants in the industry.

If party works out a deal with ups they will probably accept our empty bear cans with a nickel value each. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I think the poster is correct who said the sites will come up with something.

[BK1248]

Post deleted by Performify

[John21]

It's just a guess, but funding problems aside, I'd say 50% of the players will stop if it's perceived to be a felony.

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
It's just a guess, but funding problems aside, I'd say 50% of the players will stop if it's perceived to be a felony.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know about 50%, but this is definitely true (though not just for the fish...I wouldn't play either if I thought it was a felony). that's why i was very glad to hear that this legislation apparently says nothing about the wire act, and why it's important that it gets reported more carefully than "congress banned poker."

[bkellog1]

When I first started playing online two years ago, I was afraid of getting scamed by using my credit card and I didn't even know about neteller. My first deposit was through western union. I believe, like a lot of other people, that when first starting it is already a pain in the ass to fund your account. Im not so sure this is going to have a huge impact.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]

My uncle is a fish of the highest of levels. This guy reloads 5x's per week and screams "4" at the computer when he holds pocket 4's

[/ QUOTE ]

so do i /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

[Python49]

Ummmm.... isn't this kind of similar to downloading music online? Downloading music online is AGAINST the law, there have been people have been prosecuted and fined etc etc, but people still download music because they WANT to, so they will find some way to do so. I think gambling since its an addiction (lets be honest here it is), will give people even more DRIVE to find a awy to fix their gambling need. And the fact that its against the law will not become reality to most of them until they start hearing about huge crackdowns and people being sent to jail which isn't going to happen.

This market is way too big to just die at the drop of a hat. There will be a black market, people finding SOME way to play, and the poker sites doing everything they can to make it as EASY for us to play as they can. As another poster mentioned, funding an account can be done using a phone card and then cashouts can be done through check. Does it even seem plausible to you guys that an entire multibillion dollar industry will completely go away? It doesn't to me.

I posted this in another thread but its relevent here too.

Also another thing about all the fishes not going through the effort to deposit, the thing is.... alot of the "fish" online do not even realize or think they are fish. Theres plenty of fish even right here at 2+2 that would be very willing to go out of their way to deposit and access the online sites. Many regulars i've played with do understand how to play correctly but do not have the discipline. I'd say that very few players are playing online knowingly giving their money away, they are trying to win because they think they can.

When I first got into online poker as a clear fish, neteller did not work in my state (maryland) but this did not stop me from finding SOME way to get money on there. The main problem back then for me was that I was trying to oplay at eurobet for rakeback but they didn't have IGM pay or firepay and I didn't have neteller. So I just had my affiliate transfer me some money in and I paid him on paypal, then when it was time to cash out I used moneybookers. Believe it or not, many fish would be very willing to find a way to deposit if they know one exists.

[Poker_Hoar]

[ QUOTE ]
you underestimate the power of greed.

some greedy person somewhere will find a way to enable hapless fish to fund their poker accounts before too long easily and legally from within the US. (there is a huge demand for such a service - any person who could provide such a service stands to make a hideous amount of money)

When that happens we are back to the good old days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe true. Up till today offering a 3rd party payment solution was a gray area from a legal standpoint. Now the line is clearly drawn. Now the greedy person will understand that the penalty will be jail. Four days ago this was not the case.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
When I first got into online poker as a clear fish, neteller did not work in my state (maryland) but this did not stop me from finding SOME way to get money on there. The main problem back then for me was that I was trying to oplay at eurobet for rakeback but they didn't have IGM pay or firepay and I didn't have neteller. So I just had my affiliate transfer me some money in and I paid him on paypal, then when it was time to cash out I used moneybookers. Believe it or not, many fish would be very willing to find a way to deposit if they know one exists.

[/ QUOTE ]
Several of my friends from college found ways to convince themselves they are good players, they keep losing.

Let's not bend over!


Python, where in MD do you live?

[Osprey]

Yes., I think this is an important point to make- Online Poker was a gray area, a quasi legal place with no penalties attached to it. Now, the government is saying it's part of illegal online gambling. There may well be ways of funding to and from the sites, but how many people are going to be scared off simply because it is now illegal ?(and maybe THEY can track you with these EFTs or whatever you are using) I certainly got more paranoid about reporting my taxes accurately when I realized how my bank account looked with all the EFTs coming in--- how paranoid would you be now if you had lots of transfers to a bank account that you couldn't legally explain and may or may not be traceable to online gambling after it's been explicitly made illegal. You might say that no one is ever going to check ...which may be true, and you can falsify tax info for years as well- but God help you if you get audited for another reason (or randomly) and they pull your bank records and note these strange transfers...

I think the people who think this is going to be pretty chilling are right.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you underestimate the power of greed.

some greedy person somewhere will find a way to enable hapless fish to fund their poker accounts before too long easily and legally from within the US. (there is a huge demand for such a service - any person who could provide such a service stands to make a hideous amount of money)

When that happens we are back to the good old days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe true. Up till today offering a 3rd party payment solution was a gray area from a legal standpoint. Now the line is clearly drawn. Now the greedy person will understand that the penalty will be jail. Four days ago this was not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone is overestimating the fish, infact most people in this forum know this will probably kill the american online poker market. Average players that play online poker for fun aka "the fish" will not go through all the trouble, they will stick to homegames with budies and local casinos. The only ones left from America will be the serious players, those that make serious money at this and the percentage of such players are low compared to average players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast. I'm a 42 year old STAY-AT-HOME-MOM who plays online for very low stakes, mostly $5 SNG tournaments, and because of a recent win of a poker tournament in AC, occasional $10 MTT tournaments. I only play 2, 3 times a week because my life with kids is pretty busy. I'm not a losing player, but I certainly don't win enough playing at these small stakes as to have anything even remotely resembling "supplemental income".

So, yes, I play mostly for fun! Part of the fun is winning money, regardless of how little. I have a HUGE library of poker books, many 2+2 titles, and I frequent 2+2 forums daily to read, though I rarely post.

When I first started playing online, I had to find a way to circumvent not being able to use a credit card. I pretty much researched different sites until I found a site that had a method I was comfortable with. I was not immediately comfortable with linking an online poker site or a Neteller type company to my household checking account. I originally found a site that had something called a 900pay, and my phone bill was charged. That is how I made my initial deposit to an online poker site.

After that, I went through the trouble of opening up a seperate checking account so that I could link up to Neteller and not place my household finances in jeopardy. (not that they were in jeopardy, but this was new to me).

Okay, my point is that I am clearly just an average player who plays for fun. But I LOVE playing poker, I love that I can play poker while my kids are upstairs sleeping, I don't have to go out and try to find a poker games somewhere, and I don't depend on poker for income.

BUT, I WILL keep playing as long as there is a way to get my money in and out. I don't care if the method is a little more inconvenient than it is right now. I am sure I am not the only "average" player who feels this way.

Jan

BTW, I don't consider myself a fish. I do keep detailed records of my results, and I am a winning player at the very small stakes I play. But again, I am just an average player playing for fun....It is my hobby. Many people take their hobbies pretty seriously...

[big e]

Whats to stop the online poker sites changing there player clubs into independant poker shops.

That just happens to also let you transfer money to your poker accounts.

Your not paying money into a poker site your paying it into a shop.

Or does the new act take that into account and would say the shop is a sham.

[primetime32]

Many people UNDERESTIMATE the fish. These people are just as hooked to online poker as the rest of us. Just because they lose doesn't mean they won't find a way like the rest of us to get funds over.

Does anyone think party poker won't come up with a new method of payment and let everyone of its members know in a million email updates? They will be giving away bonuses and free money to induce people to try the new methods and once they try it and it works, we are back in business.

I am not saying it will be easy, but with billion dollar companies at risk, i am sure they will figure something out.

The banks will not be able to track every single transaction that goes through and decipher if it is a gambling transaction or not.

[mmbt0ne]

It's also a pain in the ass to buy drugs in a new place at first, but that doesn't stop most people or a $322B retail industry.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you underestimate the power of greed.

some greedy person somewhere will find a way to enable hapless fish to fund their poker accounts before too long easily and legally from within the US. (there is a huge demand for such a service - any person who could provide such a service stands to make a hideous amount of money)

When that happens we are back to the good old days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe true. Up till today offering a 3rd party payment solution was a gray area from a legal standpoint. Now the line is clearly drawn. Now the greedy person will understand that the penalty will be jail. Four days ago this was not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is true but people selling drugs understand that they will go to jail if they are caught and it doesn't stop them.

I think the player pool in the near future will be dented by this new bill and the likely publicity etc it will get for a week or 3 - then someone will figure out a way to get around it and things will get back to the way they were a week ago.

Yes this is conjecture, I might be wrong, but I really don't think this bill is the end of the line for online poker as lots of people are making it out to be.

US "fish" account for 50% or so of the worldwide player base, assuming there will still be some way for committed players to fund their accounts that still leaves plenty enough fish to go around, if the games get a little tougher - work harder at becoming a better player yourself.

[MicroBob]

I don't think anyone is underestimating the impact on the fish.
To the contrary, all I see over and over and over are posts on here that the games will die because all the fish will leave.

[hypopg]

Terror at the thought that some of the people on this site will actually have to get a job. On line poker in the US will be dead inside of two weeks.

[suzzer99]

If whatever gets inacted doesn't scare me off, I can't see too many of the people I play $60/$114 SNGs with at PS being scared off either.

[bcubed72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still amazed that so many people find a way to get their money to poker sites. So I have hope that enough of them will continue to do so to make the games profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, as long as you and all the fish move to a foreign country where you can actually access on online poker site, you should be all set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the legislation!
Under 5363(c)(1)(C), Limitation Realting to Interactive Computer Services , it basically says that this law would "not impose any obligation" on an ISP to block sites. Furthermore, it does not amend the Wire Act (unless I misread it totally,) so online poker is just as legal/illegal/who knows as yesterday.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and in keeping with that, time will tell how creative the sites and bettors will be. The US track record of battling kiddie porn/hate sites/etc is rather poor. What makes you think they'll do appreciably better here?