View Full Version : why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
schwza
09-30-2006, 09:36 AM
there's still a couple grand in bids from 88 to 93. how is this already not a done deal? is there still really a chance this will not pass somehow?
link (http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=55670&eventSelect=55670&updat eList=true&showExpired=false)
BluffTHIS!
09-30-2006, 09:38 AM
Already passed. This was commented on last night. No reason why it's not closed out.
schwza
09-30-2006, 09:42 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Already passed. This was commented on last night. No reason why it's not closed out.
[/ QUOTE ]
well there's a couple grand that's yours for the taking if you're that confident.
BluffTHIS!
09-30-2006, 09:43 AM
The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind.
Uglyowl
09-30-2006, 09:58 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind.
[/ QUOTE ]
The contract won't expire until the President signs it.
Just this morning there have been more and more being added in the 88-90 range (someone risking $1500). It is very strange. I wonder what the thinking behind this is? Seems silly huh /images/graemlins/confused.gif
schwza
09-30-2006, 05:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind.
[/ QUOTE ]
The contract won't expire until the President signs it.
Just this morning there have been more and more being added in the 88-90 range (someone risking $1500). It is very strange. I wonder what the thinking behind this is? Seems silly huh /images/graemlins/confused.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, very strange, b/c my understanding was that it was 100% that the president signs this bill. it's higher now, but there are is still around a grand at 95%.
yukoncpa
09-30-2006, 05:55 PM
Last night ( or rather very early this morning )the TS contract went to zero with the message, " session closed", then right before my eyes, it opened back up.
I'm wondering if the language in the TS contract regarding the bill is different than the bill that passed, so that there might be some confusion as to whether this bill meets the criteria of the TS contract. At least that is all I can think of.
b00000000000m
09-30-2006, 11:35 PM
FYI - The Tradesports contracts are, confusingly, not posted in US dollar units. The units are 1/10th USD. If you buy a contract at 95, it'll cost you $9.50.
So if you pick up the 500 available shorts at 95, you stand to make $250. Including that bid to sell 500 at 95, there's currently a total of $363 (profit) of shorts available on this contract, gross of fees.
I don't know much about the legislative process, but maybe there is a small risk this bill won't be signed before January 31, 2007, the deadline on the contract? Also consider the exchange fees and the float (they require frozen funds to cover any possible losses, so if you short 100 contracts at 99 [with a potential profit of $10], they freeze $990), and that may explain some of the Asks at 99+ that aren't getting snapped up.
b00000000000m
09-30-2006, 11:36 PM
It would be wrong for this contract to have expired. The contract reads:
"The 109th US Congress passes a bill and the US President signs a new law..."
Given that the President has not signed the law yet, there should still be trading on the contract.
Punker
10-01-2006, 12:10 AM
Maybe some people hedging against miracles.
This still vexes me. People are very clearly leaving money on the table. One poster, I think Friday night, said that some of those guys offering up 500 contracts in the high 90s may be currently holding lots of contracts, and are attempting to lock in a freeroll. In other words, if they bought 500 contracts at 20, and they unload 500 at 95, they lock in some profit, and have a freeroll on some crazy circumstance stopping the bill from becoming law before Jan 31 2007.
But that is not the end of the story. I would've bought all of the available contracts already if I wasn't worried about this: is there some possible mismatch between the content of the bill that passed, and the requirements spelled out in the "rules" portion of the TS contract. Those rules are actually quite detailed, and if for some reason TS decided to be [censored] and say the bill does not match the requirements of the rules, then the people selling at 80, 90, 95 suddenly look like geniuses.
Here are the "rules" I was talking about:
Dublin, July 14, 2006: New US Law passed and signed by the US President
The contract(s) will be expired at 100 if (including but not limited to):
The 109th US Congress passes a bill and the US President signs a new law that amends the federal criminal code to prohibit persons engaged in the business of betting or wagering from knowingly accepting credit, electronic fund transfers, checks, drafts, or similar instruments, or the proceeds of any other financial transaction in connection with unlawful Internet gambling. The law must be signed on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
The contract(s) will be expired at 0 if (including but not limited to):
There is no such bill passed by Congress or the bill is not signed into law by the US President on/before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 (Unforeseen Circumstances).
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has been expired will not be taken into account. Exchange Rule 1.4
You are obligated to contact the exchange by email to help@tradesports.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you enter an order.
Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.
Losing all
10-01-2006, 12:40 AM
and the buyers get double-f'd this week. +EV I'm sure, too rich for my blood though.
crockpot
10-01-2006, 01:13 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Last night ( or rather very early this morning )the TS contract went to zero with the message, " session closed", then right before my eyes, it opened back up.
[/ QUOTE ]
tradesports closes all trading for an hour every night.
PairTheBoard
10-01-2006, 01:28 AM
How much are the fees? Is it possible they nearly make up the spread between 100 and the Ask price?
PairTheBoard
blueodum
10-01-2006, 11:06 AM
Fees are 4 cents if you buy and existing ask and 4 cents when the contract expires. Therefore, if you buy for 99.1 or less, you make a profit no matter what, if it goes to 100.
Maybe if there is some terrorist attack or natural disaster, the Prez won't get around to signing it. Other than that, the only thing I can think of is that some risk-averse people are trying to lock in profits.
Dennisa
10-01-2006, 02:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Fees are 4 cents if you buy and existing ask and 4 cents when the contract expires. Therefore, if you buy for 99.1 or less, you make a profit no matter what, if it goes to 100.
Maybe if there is some terrorist attack or natural disaster, the Prez won't get around to signing it. Other than that, the only thing I can think of is that some risk-averse people are trying to lock in profits.
[/ QUOTE ]
Tradesports changed their fee structure. Ten cents if you close out a winning contract, 0 if you have a loosig contract. If you accept a price under 95 I think the bid fee is 5 cents, 3 cents if goes over 95.
Dennisa
10-01-2006, 02:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Here are the "rules" I was talking about:
Dublin, July 14, 2006: New US Law passed and signed by the US President
The contract(s) will be expired at 100 if (including but not limited to):
The 109th US Congress passes a bill and the US President signs a new law that amends the federal criminal code to prohibit persons engaged in the business of betting or wagering from knowingly accepting credit, electronic fund transfers, checks, drafts, or similar instruments, or the proceeds of any other financial transaction in connection with unlawful Internet gambling. The law must be signed on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
The contract(s) will be expired at 0 if (including but not limited to):
There is no such bill passed by Congress or the bill is not signed into law by the US President on/before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 (Unforeseen Circumstances).
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has been expired will not be taken into account. Exchange Rule 1.4
You are obligated to contact the exchange by email to help@tradesports.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you enter an order.
Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.
[/ QUOTE ]
I wonder how the contract would close if Neteller or Party was successfully able to get a TRO after theh President signs it.
schwza
10-01-2006, 02:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
FYI - The Tradesports contracts are, confusingly, not posted in US dollar units. The units are 1/10th USD. If you buy a contract at 95, it'll cost you $9.50.
So if you pick up the 500 available shorts at 95, you stand to make $250. Including that bid to sell 500 at 95, there's currently a total of $363 (profit) of shorts available on this contract, gross of fees.
I don't know much about the legislative process, but maybe there is a small risk this bill won't be signed before January 31, 2007, the deadline on the contract? Also consider the exchange fees and the float (they require frozen funds to cover any possible losses, so if you short 100 contracts at 99 [with a potential profit of $10], they freeze $990), and that may explain some of the Asks at 99+ that aren't getting snapped up.
[/ QUOTE ]
hmmm, i never really knew the details of how the bids worked. currently there is a bid of 91.0 with a quantity of 400. what does that mean exactly?
It means that if you buy at 91, you are investing $9.10 to win $0.90, less applicable fees. If someone bought all 400 available, they'd make $360.00 -- assuming the contract closed at 100. Of course, of for some flukey reason the contract closed at 0, they'd have lost ~$3600.
b00000000000m
10-01-2006, 04:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm, i never really knew the details of how the bidsworked. currently there is a bid of 91.0 with a quantity of 400. what does that mean exactly?
[/ QUOTE ]
OK, I was being a bit loose with the language before. Technically, "Bid" means only "offer to buy" and "Ask" means "offer to sell." I used the phrase "bid to sell" and also once or twice talked about "shorts" when I just meant "offers to sell."
So, right now there is an Ask at 91 for Quantity 400. I think that's what you're referring to. That means you can buy 400 contracts at a price of $9.10 per contract before fees ($9.15 per contract after fees). If an appropriate law is signed, you will be credited $9.90 per contract (there's a $0.10 fee per winning contract).
Total cost is 400 * $9.15 = $3,660.
Total payout in the event of a winning contract is 400 * 9.90 = $3,960.
Total profit = $300.
One note of caution is that the bill that was passed might not actually meet the contract's requirements. The Rules state:
The contract(s) will be expired at 100 if (including but not limited to): "... a new law that amends the federal criminal code..."
The new law amends US Code Title 31, Chapter 53, "Money and Finance - Money - Monetary Transactions." The federal criminal code is US Code Title 18, Chapters 1 - 601. Now, the language in the bill pretty exactly matches the rest of the language in the Rules, so one would think that the "including (but not limited to)" language in the rules will allow TradeSports to expire the contracts at 100. I would guess that if you call TradeSports and ask them whether the law that was passed, if signed, would qualify, they will tell you yes or no.
From TS Support staff:
"Hi xxxxx,
Thank you for contacting the Exchange Operations Team. If this current bill is signed by the President, then the contract will expire at 100.
If you require any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Kind Regards,
Brian
Exchange Operations
Trade Exchange Network Limited
(incorporating www.tradesports.com (http://www.tradesports.com), www.intrade.com (http://www.intrade.com) & www.tradebetx.com (http://www.tradebetx.com))"
So pretty much the people offering those hundreds of contacts are giving away money.
[ QUOTE ]
From TS Support staff:
"Hi xxxxx,
Thank you for contacting the Exchange Operations Team. If this current bill is signed by the President, then the contract will expire at 100.
If you require any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Kind Regards,
Brian
Exchange Operations
Trade Exchange Network Limited
(incorporating www.tradesports.com (http://www.tradesports.com), www.intrade.com (http://www.intrade.com) & www.tradebetx.com (http://www.tradebetx.com))"
So pretty much the people offering those hundreds of contacts are giving away money.
[/ QUOTE ]Cool. I just bought 100 contracts. I wish I had more in my account to snap up the 300 or so still remaining.
b00000000000m
10-02-2006, 12:20 PM
Just picked up a few myself--there's an Ask at 89.9. Apparently Bush will sign the bill within a couple of weeks. Even if it's a month before the contract is expired at 100, this is a pretty decent annualized rate of return even net of fees (118%, if I did the math right).
Too bad I don't have ACH set up with Tradesports and don't have any spare money in my Neteller account. The plan is to deposit $250 / day (the credit card max) and snap these up while they're still around.
[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much the people offering those hundreds of contacts are giving away money
[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming that TS works identically to Betfair, those people are freeing up funds.
If they can settle now for 90% of the value, but use those funds to make 1% profit every day on other events, they would profit assuming it takes ten days to be signed (For example, I'm aware it may be sooner.)
Lori
b00000000000m
10-02-2006, 12:53 PM
Another (very minor) consideration is that by selling now as a price-maker, they avoid the $.10 per contract expiration fee.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much the people offering those hundreds of contacts are giving away money
[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming that TS works identically to Betfair, those people are freeing up funds.
If they can settle now for 90% of the value, but use those funds to make 1% profit every day on other events, they would profit assuming it takes ten days to be signed (For example, I'm aware it may be sooner.)
Lori
[/ QUOTE ]
Damn you people are smarter than me on these financial things. GOod point, and one I'd never have thought of myself. I guess for someone like me who does not have an edge on any other bets offered by TS, however, and who can get only ~5% on a short term CD, taking the short term 10% they are laying on the table is a good move.
[ QUOTE ]
Just picked up a few myself--there's an Ask at 89.9. Apparently Bush will sign the bill within a couple of weeks. Even if it's a month before the contract is expired at 100, this is a pretty decent annualized rate of return even net of fees (118%, if I did the math right).
Too bad I don't have ACH set up with Tradesports and don't have any spare money in my Neteller account. The plan is to deposit $250 / day (the credit card max) and snap these up while they're still around.
[/ QUOTE ]
Bush will sign the bill this week or next, FWIW. He may sign as soon as tomorrow, I hear.
Quick question -- is there a consensus among those of you posting in this thread that speculation on current events (such as the TS net gambling ban contract) is covered by the Act itself? I have read the language a few times and cannot decide exactly where the line falls in this very specific case. I gather financial institutions will cut TS off once they figure all of the regs out, since TS is primarily a sportsbook, but it would be nice if they segregated their current events exchange, since that may be in the clear even under the new language in the SAFE Ports Act.
otctrader
10-02-2006, 01:10 PM
Small risk of complications/delays in cashing out for U.S. bettors when the law goes into effect, not sure how to quantify it - this goes hand in hand with the opportunity cost of having funds tied up.
bills217
10-02-2006, 01:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Small risk of complications/delays in cashing out for U.S. bettors
[/ QUOTE ]
TS just declined my Neteller cashout...
schwza
10-02-2006, 01:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
but use those funds to make 1% profit every day on other events
[/ QUOTE ]
that seems, uh, a hair optimistic.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Small risk of complications/delays in cashing out for U.S. bettors
[/ QUOTE ]
TS just declined my Neteller cashout...
[/ QUOTE ]
WTF???
LegallyBlind
10-02-2006, 04:09 PM
i cashed out of TS last night about 3:00 AM eastern, it was in my neteller before noon
otctrader
10-02-2006, 04:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i cashed out of TS last night about 3:00 AM eastern, it was in my neteller before noon
[/ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify I'm not implying anything is awry at TS or Neteller, just that there's some risk of delays *AFTER* the bill is signed into law that might account for some of that risk premium in the quote.
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.