Why I think that If YOU will play, also fish will

[Brayn]

I am an European player, so I apologize for any grammatical mistakes.

As I read the forum regarding recent gamling law which passed in the Senate, almost everyone agrees that it will still be possible to play poker online, but that fish won't try to find the loopholes.

Here are reasons why I think bad players will still play, if it will be possible:

1. Gambling online is illegal in Australia, but last time I played poker I played with a player from AUSTRALIA and I took him more than hundred dollars at NL25 (!). I never took so much money from one player at NL25.

2. I you make a living from playing poker, you play at high limits. Do you really think that also losing players at high limits won't try to find a way to still play poker? (And I am SURE that not all players who are posting on 2+2 forums are winning players, although almost everyone says so, lol).

3. Downloading movies is also illegal, but every 13-years old kid knows how to do that.

4. A big majority of players think they are winning players (or will be) on long term. So also bad players thinks he is or WILL BE making money. After all, you cannot be a winner at the most games in casino, but countless number of people are playing slots, roulette, blackjack etc... And they are playing ALTHOUGH they hear a voice somewhere back in their head that they cannot win, but they are still playing althoguh many of them lost a lot (!) of money.

5. So, if you think that YOU will be able to play, also bad players will play.

[chicagoY]

I appreciate your optimism.

[sandycove]

I am a European player as well.

The only certain short-term effect of this undigested legislation, in my view, is that internet poker volume will decrease across the board and one will wait longer for tables to fill. Multi-tabling, semi-pro grinders will deplore this. But this is not necessarily a wholly bad thing for the rest of us.

Whether the relative skill levels of players increase, decrease or remain constant is unknown. Europeans tend to regard late-night Americans as inebriated fish, for instance. The 2+2 community tends to regard everyone but themselves fish. We’ll see. My guess is that skill levels won’t change much because players at every level will drift away. They do already. Only now, they will be more difficult and more expensive to replace.

Another certain effect is that competition among poker sites for market share will heat up markedly. In the short term, this is also good news for players. Fringe sites will dry up. This will be good news, briefly. In the long run, providers of games will consolidate, and operations like Party and Stars will dominate even more robustly. This is bad news, since they will have less incentive to reduce or even hold the line on rake, particularly since their acquisition costs per player will be higher.

The mad growth of the World Series of Poker will come to an abrupt end. This is the best news of all. Even greed should have limits. The WSOP will always be a circus, but it has become a vulgarly excessive obscenity.

The market for 2+2 publications will shrink. It will be amusing to hear the proprietors’ excuses for sitting out the fight. But one can be sure the ownership measured its self-interest carefully and balanced this against the emotional impact on its constituency.

That’s what I see in my crystal ball, anyway. Before the ink is dry.

In the even longer term, I’m most interested of all in Bill Frist’s motivation. He is not running for re-election, so his over-the-top behaviour on this week’s terrorism trial bill and, now, this last-minute, late-night anti-poker manoeuvre, must signal a presidential bid. I can only presume he’s preaching to the lunatic fringe of his own choir to establish a strong Republican primary base. We’ll see how that plays. Ironic that the senator is a gambler, too.

[Jack Bando]

He wants to run for Pres in 08, and the fact he thinks he has a chance over McCain proves Frist is the biggest fish in the world

[jimmytrick]

The implications for certain cardrooms are pretty harsh. If you are a pro associated with Pokerstars, Raymer for example, and continue in your role, you could be easily arrested under this statute and popped with a five year prison sentence.