QQ OOP against PF reraise

[xorbie]

Had one today that I think I played just about the worst way possible. In general, what's the line here?

$50 NL at Party. Hero has Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif in EP. Hero raises to $2. There's one call, or maybe folded to villain in MP or LP. Villain raises to $7. At this point, what's the plan?

If you call, what's the plan on each of these flops:

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I think that about covers it.

[jkkkk]

No read yeah?

I lead every flop and fold to a raise except for the Q high one obviously.

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
Had one today that I think I played just about the worst way possible. In general, what's the line here?

$50 NL at Party. Hero has Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif in EP. Hero raises to $2. There's one call, or maybe folded to villain in MP or LP. Villain raises to $7. At this point, what's the plan?

If you call, what's the plan on each of these flops:

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif
check/call, lead...
2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check/call, lead...
2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check/call, lead...
2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check/call, check/call or check/raise all-in
2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif
lead, fold to raise
2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif
lead, fold to raise
I think that about covers it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Mackerel]

Um, in order, my plan is:

Bet
Bet
Bet
Bet
Bet
Bet

After that, it depends on what they do and what I think about them, but my default play is to fold to a re-raise (except where you flopped a set of course). And probably 1/2-2/3 pot the turn if called and check river, but give up to any resistance from the turn on out.

[kongo_totte]

A read is of course preferable, but since this is a pretty general question, I'll assume villian is unknown. I'll also assume 100BB stacks.

If you call, what's the plan on each of these flops:

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif. UGH, I check-fold. (this is a math-thing though. A lead might be right but I don't have time to do the math right know.

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Lead, and be done if there is a turn or if he raises.

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif Lead, and be done if there is a turn or if he raises.

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif Check-call flop. Check-raise turn.

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif.Check-fold

2/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif Check-fold

All of the examples are very read dependant though, especially the last one.

Edit: to all of those who check-call flop lead turn, you realize hero is committing his stack (still assuming 100XBB stacks).

[stu-unger]

i have a couple questions for u guys who r voting to lead all of these flops:

dont we lose value to continuation bets
against most opponents do we get enough info by doing this

not that i disagree, just asking

[Mackerel]

How are you supposed to know if it's a continuation bet or he connected? Then, if you call his flop bet, you know nothing more about his hand than you did, you are still OOP, he has the initative, and the pot is much bigger. What is good about that?

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
i have a couple questions for u guys who r voting to lead all of these flops:

dont we lose value to continuation bets
against most opponents do we get enough info by doing this

not that i disagree, just asking

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading this flop is of course not optimum according to the Fundemental Theorem in the sense that if we could see his cards, we often would not lead the flop. We allow him to play perfectly etc. However, it allows us to make lesser EV mistakes on later streets. Any other line is commiting our stack, and I'm not going broke with bare queens when opponents make a decent re-raise pre-flop. I see 3 hands re-raising properly pre-flop (still assuming no read): AA, KK, QQ or AK (maybe J J), and the stronger the hand, the more likely is it he re-raises pre-flop.

The alternative line is check-call flop, check-fold turn. But that line has disadvantages of giving A K the option to take a free card, and the risk that we fold a better hand (the times he has JJ or when he fires 2 barrels w/ A K).

Basically, info is what I am after here.

[stu-unger]

i dont care if hes connected. i care if he has AA or KK. i think AK is a likely holding for villain along with PPs we beat if we lead theres no telling a weaker hand doesn't raise. but if we call and lead the turn i think we get a lot more info on villains hand.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
have a couple questions for u guys who r voting to lead all of these flops:

dont we lose value to continuation bets
against most opponents do we get enough info by doing this

not that i disagree, just asking


[/ QUOTE ]

A continuation bet is not a raise on the flop. In 50NL against a random, I am definitely confident this is enough information to lay down QQ.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
but if we call and lead the turn i think we get a lot more info on villains hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line commits you.

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if we call and lead the turn i think we get a lot more info on villains hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line commits you.

[/ QUOTE ]

and the water is now crystal clear. it does make more sense to get the info then to try and pick off bets when that gets your stack in the middle with one pair.

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont care if hes connected

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you make good decisions if you don't know where you're at?

[ QUOTE ]
if we lead theres no telling a weaker hand doesn't raise

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's got the balls to reraise my EP raise PF and then raise a solid lead on one of these flops with something like AK or JJ, then he'll get this pot since I don't know that yet. But pretty soon I will know that, and I'll get his stack sooner or later.

[ QUOTE ]
if we call and lead the turn i think we get a lot more info on villains hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you will get that much more info, and a lot will depend on what the turn brings, but at any rate you are going to be paying a lot for that info, and could easily find yourself pot-committed with 2 outs.

I really don't like this line at all.

[ScottTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
i have a couple questions for u guys who r voting to lead all of these flops:

dont we lose value to continuation bets
against most opponents do we get enough info by doing this

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't check/call these flops because he reraised preflop, he is betting no matter what he has if we check to him.

If he raises a flop bet after reraising preflop, i have to give him credit for a better hand. If he's aggro enuff to raise a whiffed AK on the flop here, he outplayed me, nh. But his overaggression will soon cost him against me.

[ScottTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if we call and lead the turn i think we get a lot more info on villains hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line commits you.

[/ QUOTE ]

and the water is now crystal clear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but the trick is to figure out if you're good BEFORE you're pot commited, not after.

[ChicagoVince]

I notice that nobody suggested a re-raise to $12-$14. His range right now is anything from 8-8 to A-A, A-K, and maybe A-Q. He could also have air and just be trying to steal. A re-raise PF would define his hand. Most AA and KK hands will push the re-raise and you can lay your queens down and feel good about it. Middle pairs and AQ fold to the re-raise; and AK folds a fair proportion of the time. The re-raise would probably also get you to the turn for free because he would be afraid of a C/R if he doesn't hold one of these hands and you can fire on the turn if its a brick. What do you think?

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice that nobody suggested a re-raise to $12-$14. His range right now is anything from 8-8 to A-A, A-K, and maybe A-Q. He could also have air and just be trying to steal. A re-raise PF would define his hand. Most AA and KK hands will push the re-raise and you can lay your queens down and feel good about it. Middle pairs and AQ fold to the re-raise; and AK folds a fair proportion of the time. The re-raise would probably also get you to the turn for free because he would be afraid of a C/R if he doesn't hold one of these hands and you can fire on the turn if its a brick. What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play much at the $50 NL? A very small fraction of the players reraise 88 PF in this situation.

[ChicagoVince]

No. most of my play is live 1/2 NL or 2/5 NL. A raise with a mid-pair is pretty standard in most of the games I play. What is the range for the raise at this level? Would you also not see the raise with air as a steal?

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
No. most of my play is live 1/2 NL or 2/5 NL. A raise with a mid-pair is pretty standard in most of the games I play. What is the range for the raise at this level? Would you also not see the raise with air as a steal?

[/ QUOTE ]

At this level, people are really passive. From what I know of live play, it's much more agressive.

A raise UTG can have a pretty huge range, but unless a table is playing crazy you're looking at TT-AK for a reraise. Probably not TT, maybe not JJ, maybe not AK.

[ChicagoVince]

Thanks. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ChicagoVince]

If we assume this range, then we say AA and KK re-raises 100% of the time, JJ re-raises 66% of the time, 10-10 re-raises 33% of the time and AK re-raises 75% of the time, we can do the math.
There are 6 ways to get each of the pairs and 16 ways to get AK.

This means that there are 12 hands that have you dominated (100% * 12 ways to have AA or KK),

6 hands that you have dominated (JJ = 6*.67 = 4) and 10-10 = 6*.33 = 2)

and 12 hands that you are slightly ahead of PF (AK = 16*.75 = 12). This still puts you ahead two out of three times. I still like the PF re-raise even against this restricted raising range (just not as much /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

If you get called and there is no ace or king on the flop, pot it. If there is, bet 2/3 of the pot, if you get played back at, go away. If you get called, proceed with caution.

Thoughts?

[xorbie]

I think the problem with 3-betting it PF is that you've gotten so far that villain might very well just push with whatever he has, and then we end up crapping our pants. And I don't like crapping my pants.

[Pocket Trips]

His range of possible hands for villian may be off but I agree with him that a 3 bet preflop is the correct play here... most people with AA and KK will definately push to a reraise preflop some loose players will also push AK here. If he pushes preflop you can define his hand much easier that you can after the flop...

This call is extremely read-dependant.. against a super-tight player you can safely fold to his reraise preflop. Agaist a loose player you should reraise to define his hand and fold to a push.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
If we assume this range, then we say AA and KK re-raises 100% of the time, JJ re-raises 66% of the time, 10-10 re-raises 33% of the time and AK re-raises 75% of the time, we can do the math.


[/ QUOTE ]

I play almost exclusively at the 50's and I'd say my estimations are: If we assume this range, then we say AA and KK re-raises 95% of the time, JJ re-raises 20% of the time, 10-10 re-raises 10% of the time and AK re-raises 40-50% of the time, we can do the math.

[ChicagoVince]

I don't like crapping my pants. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

nh

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]


....against a super-tight player you can safely fold to his reraise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against super tight players, I have set-odds. (Assuming he won't be able to fold over pairs)

[mbraudel]

But if we assume that players at this level won't reraise preflop unless they have a very solid hand, our post-flop plan for this hand should be "flop trips or fold."

The problem with that is, we paid $7 to see the flop.

Since we're only going to hit our set one time in 8, are we going to get paid off with a pot of $56 (eight times Villain's $7 reraise)?

That's more than a complete buy-in at this level, so it's unlikely that both Hero and Villain would have stacks of that size, and that Villain would be willing to go to the felt with his hand when we started raising.

If we can't get paid off, we should have folded preflop.

[Mackerel]

I thought the question said "Assuming you call". I didn't know we had other preflop options! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

If we do, reraising and folding to a push is a valid line. The problem I see with it is that a tricky opponent with A's might decide to just call and let you hang yourself on the flop. It also costs more than calling and leading the flop.

Of course, against an opponent tricky and aggro enough to 3-bet air PF, there is a good chance all of the money is going in anyway, but at least there is some chance of getting away on a particularly ugly flop (albeit with a risk of being outplayed too).

I think in the games I play in, I still like calling and leading better, but I'm not so adamant about it that I couldn't be convinced to change my mind.

[excession]

I checked my PT stats back to March for this for my QQ holdings - 75% of the time it's been AA or KK - 15% AK and 10% JJ/TT. This is for $50 and $100 NL games

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked my PT stats back to March for this for my QQ holdings - 75% of the time it's been AA or KK - 15% AK and 10% JJ/TT. This is for $50 and $100 NL games

[/ QUOTE ]

This is helpful info. Thanks.

[theben]

add in an A K X, all club or spade to the mixture

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]


The problem with that is, we paid $7 to see the flop.

Since we're only going to hit our set one time in 8, are we going to get paid off with a pot of $56 (eight times Villain's $7 reraise)?



[/ QUOTE ]

We are only calling $5. $2 are already in the pot and are dead money. So we'll need to win $40 on average. It gets more complicated though, cause there are possibilities of set over set etc. However, if you are sure you will be paid of every time, 10% of the stack is the maximum you should call.

[beset]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem with 3-betting it PF is that you've gotten so far that villain might very well just push with whatever he has, and then we end up crapping our pants. And I don't like crapping my pants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crapping pants = folding, right?

I'm in the 3-bet camp but I really like kongo's thought on calling and then leading any flop. I think the check/call then lead thing escalates the pot unnecessarily and leaves you in a downright nasty spot.

[jaxz]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked my PT stats back to March for this for my QQ holdings - 75% of the time it's been AA or KK - 15% AK and 10% JJ/TT. This is for $50 and $100 NL games

[/ QUOTE ]

OK - great data Excession!!
Can you please post your data from 50/100NL on the case when you hold KK and get reraised too?

How often is that AA, AK or QQ-TT or other?

Thanks,
Jaxz

[Angavar]

You do realise this was posted 5 months ago?

These guys may no longer be around. I know xorbie has left us.