Bubbly Questions

[melechchloe]

Can someone help me make sure I understand Bubble Factor correctly?

10 person Sit & Go, 10,000 in chips, prize pool is .5, .3, .2

At start of tournament, hero's equity is .10 (according to an on-line ICM calculator I used)

Ex. Suppose very first hand, UTG moves all in, hero holds AA. Hero knows UTG has two random unpaired undercards. If hero wins his equity is .1844, if he looses 0.00. So his BF is (.1-0)/(.1844-.1)=1.18 In a cash game hero is normally a 5:1 favorite, but what are his "bubble odds"? Is it 5:1.18?

Ex. Same scenario, but now hero drawing to a flush on the river after vilian moved all in. Cash game 4.1:1, but "bubble odds" are (4.1 x 1.18)=>4.838:1?

Last question: Are there any "math shortcuts" or ways I can guestimate either equity or bubble factor? I know the article gives some scenarios worth remembering, but is there a way to be more precise with only average mental math abilities at the table?

Thanks

[trojanrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone help me make sure I understand Bubble Factor correctly?

10 person Sit & Go, 10,000 in chips, prize pool is .5, .3, .2

At start of tournament, hero's equity is .10 (according to an on-line ICM calculator I used)

Ex. Suppose very first hand, UTG moves all in, hero holds AA. Hero knows UTG has two random unpaired undercards. If hero wins his equity is .1844, if he looses 0.00. So his BF is (.1-0)/(.1844-.1)=1.18 In a cash game hero is normally a 5:1 favorite, but what are his "bubble odds"? Is it 5:1.18?

Ex. Same scenario, but now hero drawing to a flush on the river after vilian moved all in. Cash game 4.1:1, but "bubble odds" are (4.1 x 1.18)=>4.838:1?

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That's right. I think an easier way to think about it is that you need to divide the pot odds being offered by the bubble factor. So if you're getting 2:1 pot odds with a bubble factor of 1.2, your "effective odds" are only 1.67:1.

[ QUOTE ]
Last question: Are there any "math shortcuts" or ways I can guestimate either equity or bubble factor? I know the article gives some scenarios worth remembering, but is there a way to be more precise with only average mental math abilities at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm working on things down that road.

Tysen

[melechchloe]

Thanks Tysen. I wanted to ask about the first scenario to make sure I had the math right when hero is a favorite. Although in my example hero's 5:1 is still great for him, its easy to see how many coinflip (or near-coinflip) situations could easily be bad for him given his bubble factor.

Might I also suggest that it would be usefull to know the proper way to adjust bubble-factor for common criticisms of the ICM. For example, some players may feel that they play better or worse big or short stacked. So for the player who feels he plays 10X better with a big stack and 4x worse short-stacked, perhaps there is a multiplier to the bubble factor to account for this. Other players may feel less confident holding a big or medium stack, others love the short stack, etc. (Granted it may all be in their heads, but for a given "system" or "style" of play it may be true)

[HesseJam]

Very good article. I enjoyed the reading. Also, I recommend that everybody internalizes the dispelling of the myths.

I would be intersted in learning more about dynamics of the bubble factor. Let's say you are stack No 3 and push into stack 1 (SB) and stack 2 (BB), they both fold and you pick up the blinds. Now you look at the stacks and you are stack No 2. How did your weighted average confrontational (lol) bubble factor increase or decrease? Is it a good thing if it went lower or higher?

[melechchloe]

HesseJam-
You should hunt down an ICM calculator and then you can model all of these situations easily. I found a simple one online at: http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html

As to your question, don't overthink it. Having more chips is always better than fewer ;-)