50 NL: 2 pair on a sketchy board.....

[ReNoRyan]

Villian hasn't been too out of line, I have been lagging it up. This board absolutely sux, whats my line here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($52.75)
Hero ($92.65)
Button ($29.05)
SB ($11.05)
BB ($58.55)
UTG ($44.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $7</font>, Hero??

[bruin]

i fold. you could be ahead but even if you're ahead you've got a [censored] of cards to dodge.

[ReNoRyan]

What kind of hand bets this board like that??

[tubasteve]

I'd call and reevaluate. Hope for 8c on turn.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of hand bets this board like that??

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably something like TP that is afraid of the draw heavy board.

[PoppaTMan]

This is most likely something like AhQx, sometimes a straight, occasionally a baby flush. But look at our equity when it's the best case scenario:

pokenum -h ts 8s - ah qd -- qh th 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qh Th 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 8s 468 47.27 512 51.72 10 1.01 0.478
Qd Ah 512 51.72 468 47.27 10 1.01 0.522

Looks like a fold to me.

[Antinome]

That looks like a fold to you? No freakin' way!

This is either a big raise, if you think you have fold equity, or a call intending to make a big raise on the turn when his equity goes way down. (on a non-A,Q,heart turn)

folding here is sick.

[ReNoRyan]

It obviously didnt look like a monster hand to me because he bet so much, it looked more like he was on a big draw or had a set and was scared of the nasty board.

[PoppaTMan]

The relative strength of our hand here is terrible, and with a LAG image we're never pushing villain off of a hand with better equity than our own.

[ReNoRyan]

Looking back on the hand I like the fold a lot better then how it was actually played out...lol

[Antinome]

Assuming AhQx

We own 47.8% of 11 dollars in the pot. 5.25. Folding gives him that 5.25.

Calling doesn't change our equity, we lose some money on every dollar we put in the pot. Calling is like giving him fifteen more cents. However, on the turn, if he misses his ~12 outs, your equity goes up to like 75% Now, if he calls even a dollar he's going to pay that fifteen cents back. And he will pay a lot more than a dollar. All we have to do is make sure that he pays 53% more than the fifteen cents (relative to his equity, not absolute dollars) and calling is break even.

[EMc]

Stop n go on a non flushy or straight turn TYVM.

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]
That looks like a fold to you? No freakin' way!

This is either a big raise, if you think you have fold equity, or a call intending to make a big raise on the turn when his equity goes way down. (on a non-A,Q,heart turn)

folding here is sick.

[/ QUOTE ]

[PoppaTMan]

A big raise here is terrible. Calling is fine if you think you can play perfectly on the turn and river. The board does not make it easy to do that.

[Antinome]

a big raise isn't terrible. It just isn't as good as calling.

If you have even 10% fold equity you win 10% of his equity- say sixty cents right away. The other 90% of the time you are giving him about three cents equity per dollar you raise. that breaks even with fold equity at a 20 dollar raise. You've *already* broken even with him.

edit: said something stupid, removed.

[EMc]

Stolen from another thread, but why I think a stop n go on a safe turn is better:

I assume you called treating this the same way you would a monotone flop: attack a blank turn. I for one can see a great deal of merit in this. This is MA/WB at this point, so lets see a turn and evaluate. As someone said there are lot of turn cards that kill your action, there are also a lot of DOOM cards. By just calling, you have invested the minimum, and if the turn is safe, attack. Its like in SSHE where Ed Miller says that it is sometimes better to pass up a small positive expectation in return for a much larger in the future, which you did here. If the 2 of clubs comes, and not the 7 of hearts, you are in what appears to be a much higher EV situation, but if a doom card comes, you can release and move on. The more I type the more I like it.

[testaaja]

I fold here, we got really no odds to draw to the full house.(&lt;-- running [censored] bad see location)
Edit: Wow I like what EMcWilliams said. I vote for calling and attacking a brick turn.

[PoppaTMan]

With villain leading out in a multiway pot and given our LAG image, I'd be willing to say we have 0 FE here, and are likely just going to induce a push here.

[Antinome]

You almost never have 0 FE- people will invent reasons to fold to aggression. This thread being a case in point.

That said, I prefer calling and attacking the turn.

[Tickner]

I raise to $33 and call a push, expecing to be slightly ahead.

[Dan Bitel]

seems like a standard call to me.

If we raise, we have to call a push, and we're in bad shape when we get AI on this flop.We also never fold a better hand or one with good equity vs us by raising here.

Folding is just too weak. So by process of elimination, lets call

[Antinome]

Tickner- I think you need at least 17% fold equity to make that bet profitable. I'm not saying you don't have that- It just seems that any money we get in on the turn will have a lot more equity.