Probablility of Getting at least one pocket Ace?

[idrinkcoors]

Hi,

Is this probability approximately 1 in 8?

Also, while I played a tourney at the Plaza last weekend in Vegas, my buddy played 2/4 at Binon's. He is even more anal than me when it comes to keeping track of hands. He said he went 43 hands without an ace, and I'm not sure if I believe him.

Can someone tell me the probability of 43 hands in a row without at least one ace?

Thank you in advance.

[BruceZ]

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Hi,

Is this probability approximately 1 in 8?

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1 - (48/52)*(47/51) =~ 1 in 6.7


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Can someone tell me the probability of 43 hands in a row without at least one ace?

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[(48/52)*(47/51)]^43 =~ 1 in 1047

[pzhon]

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Is this probability approximately 1 in 8?


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No. It is 198/1326 = 33/221 ~ 1/6.70. There are 198 ways to get an ace out of 1326 equally likely hands.

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Can someone tell me the probability of 43 hands in a row without at least one ace?


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The probability that you will not get an ace in your next 43 hands is (1-33/221)^43 ~ 1/1047. However, it is not unlikely that you will hit such a streak at some unspecified point in the future. In fact, the average waiting time between the starts of streaks that are this bad or worse is only about 7013 hands.

It is silly to look for this pattern, as it is not meaningful in poker. It treats A2o as better than KK and equal to AA.