tOSU -4 1/2 v Notre Dame

[MyTurn2Raise]

OK....I'm not going to debate the merits of this play, since I don't feel comfortable with the NOtre Dame backlash it will receive. The short of it is that tOSU pwns ND. For those that follow my picks, I am officially recommending 2+2ers to take the Ohio State -4 1/2 v Notre Dame

FYI-I'm 21-8 NCAA ytd on my 2+2 ATS recommendations
my POTW is FSU +10 v Penn St
for the title, I'm recommending Texas +7 1/2 v USC

[koreanmeanin]

i'm going to take the FSU vs. Penn St - my immediate reaction (before reading your analysis) was what I think average Joe Public would think ... Penn St. is a powerhouse, FSU just lost their middle linebacker for the game, and it will be a rout in favor of PSU ... I have decided to wait until the last minute, thinking that the line might move in favor of FSU - do you think this is true?

Or will the sharps who recognize the FSU is the better play hammer it at the last minute as well, maybe bumping it down to +8 or +9 or something even less favorable...

do you recommend taking FSU +10 now or waiting it out?

[MyTurn2Raise]

I jumped on it (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=4312894&an=0&page=0#Post 4312894) as soon as the lb was dismissed and it went to 10. My fear is that if the big10 keeps looking like garbage tomorrow, the line might shift toward FSU.

[koreanmeanin]

a good point, but that could work in favor of FSU backers too, right? My personal preference (as a relative newbie/square) is to wait and see if I can get a better line - but is that the wrong mindset? Should i snap up +10 while I can?

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
a good point, but that could work in favor of FSU backers too, right? My personal preference (as a relative newbie/square) is to wait and see if I can get a better line - but is that the wrong mindset? Should i snap up +10 while I can?

[/ QUOTE ]

If a line is +ev and it is as high (or with the fav, as low) as you think it is going to get you should grab it. If you think it will go higher, than you should wait. If you are wrong and it drops, then the worst that happens is that you don't bet it.

craig

[MyTurn2Raise]

-4...yes

[ThaHero]

I got it at -4 1/2 but I'm lovin it right now. Made a huuuuge play, let's hope OSU keeps it goin. Golden Domers have my pockets lookin golden right now.

[koreanmeanin]

got FSU at +10.5 and making a moneyline parlay with Texas for fun.

just for personal clarification, the FSU line moving from +10 to +10.5 means that the books are taking in action on FSU, so they are adjusting the line a bit in PSU's favor in order to bring in more public money to offset the FSU action... right?

i swear, this can be so utterly confusing. i'm an intelligent individual, but one day i understand line movements and the next day i'm back to square one.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
just for personal clarification, the FSU line moving from +10 to +10.5 means that the books are taking in action on FSU, so they are adjusting the line a bit in PSU's favor in order to bring in more public money to offset the FSU action... right?

[/ QUOTE ]

A line move from 10 to 10.5 means money is coming in on the favorite.