Jax v N.E.

[NajdorfDefense]

Jax +7.5 -101 at NE looks interesting. I know NE will never lose another playoff game until the end of time, but at least the Jags have a solid shot to cover.

I gotta think most of the pub will be all over Belicheck at home. We'll see. I got a small bet down on Jax to start.

Naj

[kdog]

You're probably right about the public perception. My first thought when I looked at this line was "What can I tease them with?"

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably right about the public perception. My first thought when I looked at this line was "What can I tease them with?"

[/ QUOTE ]

You wanted to tease NE or JAX? Mathematically NE is the right play to tease.

craig

[NajdorfDefense]

useless donkey half-unit tease
Jax +17.5
Cinci +13
NE over 27.5

thus ensuring Cinci loses by 2 TDs on a late Carson pick...

Naj

[craig]

The only tease that is really worth anything here is NE to -1.5 (this is pure Math, not handicapping). The problem is, that the only other candidate is a road team; WAS +8.5 (but if it goes to 3, you are better off buying to 3.5 or waiting to see if it goes to 3.5). The road teams still cover the +8.5 at a reasonable clip, but not as good as a home dog.

craig

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I know NE will never lose another playoff game until the end of time,

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right. That's why I'll be on the NE moneyline no matter what price. Who cares if it is -2000 if I have no chance of losing the bet?

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
The only tease that is really worth anything here is NE to -1.5 (this is pure Math, not handicapping). The problem is, that the only other candidate is a road team; WAS +8.5 (but if it goes to 3, you are better off buying to 3.5 or waiting to see if it goes to 3.5). The road teams still cover the +8.5 at a reasonable clip, but not as good as a home dog.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. None of the other games appear to have value in a tease. As far as I know at Pinnacle Basketball and Football can not be mixed on a tease. At 5 dimes its 5 pts on football and 4 pts on Basketball at +105. If I see a good Basketball game to tease a stong 5-7pt favorite I plan to do a mixed sports w/ Tease the Pats down to -2.5. I actually wanted to do that with Miami Heat tonight but 5dimes did not have the lines posted when I checked for the NFL.
I like New England a lot in this game but very shaky on the spread as New England has been for a while a team that finds a way to do just enough. The average Margin of Victory is skewed by 2 weeks in a row where they won by 28pts.
It might be possible the the lines are accounting for New Englands more recent larger margins of Victory. Here they are at a glance.
10pts, 3pts, 3pts, 5pts, 7pts, 7pts, 13pts, 28pts (Buffalo),
28pts (Tampa Bay) 10 pts.
I live in Massachusetts but am a fan of many teams. I just happened to have watched every pats game for all my life as there all televised here. Its just my memory that during this Bill Belichick era the Pats have found a way to do just enough to win.
I believe they will win this game. For me the question is will it be by 3pts, 4pts, 5pts, 10pts? no idea. To me the score is a total coin flip while I feel the game is 65-70% Pats to win.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
To me the score is a total coin flip while I feel the game is 65-70% Pats to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just so you know - the Pats have to be over 70% to cover an even money tease to make it profitable.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I have no idea where to go with this line.

I really don't give an inexperienced Florida team much of a chance to come north and beat NE, the way the Pats closed. the Jaguars have just the type of offense the Patriots can completely shut down.

I may put down a moneyline bet.

[27offsuit]

This line seemed way too big. I thought 5 tops.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
This line seemed way too big. I thought 5 tops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I am starting to come around. If Jax can't run the ball, they are toast. 10 is just a late figgie with a TD lead, after all. Keeping it small on Jax. One unit.

Naj

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
If Jax can't run the ball, they are toast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pats run defense was very strong once the front 7 got back together. Belicheck has a history of taking away what teams do well - I'd be surprised if Jax can get the run going.

[jedi]

What's the over/under on this? I was thinking about the underdog + the UNDER, partly given January Mass. weather.