Easy turn decision HU?

[GMMigge]

Villain is 43/7/1.13 over 30 hands.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero?

[caz]

I think you have odds to call. 10 outs, 4 for the jack and 6 for the overs.

[Russ M.]

You think all of his overs are good 100% of the time?

[NB_Gambler]

I'ld probably throw my hand away against the flop raise.
You're probably drawing to 4 outs, maybe 3 if villain has a J.

Ok you called, now I would check/fold the turn for sure.

[NB_Gambler]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have odds to call. 10 outs, 4 for the jack and 6 for the overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain could easily have QJ why count 10 outs??

[carniplant]

I think you you have around 3.5 outs for the str8 and ~3 outs at best for overcards but you also have bad reverse implied odds so i think you should fold getting 5-1 assuming a somewhat sane vilain.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
I'ld probably throw my hand away against the flop raise.
You're probably drawing to 4 outs, maybe 3 if villain has a J.



Ok you called, now I would check/fold the turn for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]


This advice is terrible. The villian plays about 1/2 his hands. He could have anything here. Folding to the flop raise is just ridiculous.

[DreamShatterer]

I think this is a call, though it is a close decision. I think the likely possibility you're ahead (villain will often hold a J, overs, or a gutshot) combined with the moderate number of outs when behind (I'd assumed around 6-7) make calling correct here.

I'd likely call the river unimproved here. I think the only river card I wouldn't call would be a 7.

[Reef]

based on the LIMITED NUMBER OF HANDS we have on villian, we can tell 1) his true VPIP is probably between 30 and 55 .. 2) He's probably not an agro player

I think we have 4 + ~2 outs here. Pot is still small. I go with a turn fold.

[stinkpaw]

I know Hero checked, but does anyone like betting the Turn here as a semi-bluff?

The pot is small enough to bluff at. Opponent's Flop raise can mean anything from having a hand, overdefending his blind, or raising for a free card. Getting called wouldn't be the worst thing in the world as we may have outs (although our overs may not be good and a J could still lose or just chop.)

On the other hand, the board is pretty coordinated, so BB could have a pair, two pair, a draw, or even a made straight. If we got raised on the turn, then we may have a tough call, and perhaps another one on the river.

[W. Deranged]

If I were playing this hand, I would:

1. Pause for a second and kind of look up at the ceiling.

2. Realize I have 10 outs at best and 4 outs at worst.

3. Realize I'm getting 5-1, without to much in the way of implied odds because all my hands are obvious, I'll lose often when I make one pair, and so forth, and decide effectively I'm getting no better than about 5.5-1.

4. Decide that I'm not showing this hand down unimproved.

5. Conclude I've got "like 7 outs"

6. Multiply 7 outs by 6 (5 bets in the pot plus the one I have to put in), get 42, realize 42 is not quite equal to the 46 unexposed cards in the deck, and decide that my very slight implied odds don't make up the difference.

7. Fold..b

[hero]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were playing this hand, I would:

1. Pause for a second and kind of look up at the ceiling.

2. Realize I have 10 outs at best and 4 outs at worst.

3. Realize I'm getting 5-1, without to much in the way of implied odds because all my hands are obvious, I'll lose often when I make one pair, and so forth, and decide effectively I'm getting no better than about 5.5-1.

4. Decide that I'm not showing this hand down unimproved.

5. Conclude I've got "like 7 outs"

6. Multiply 7 outs by 6 (5 bets in the pot plus the one I have to put in), get 42, realize 42 is not quite equal to the 46 unexposed cards in the deck, and decide that my very slight implied odds don't make up the difference.

7. Fold..b

[/ QUOTE ]

golf clap

i find myself overestimating my overs in marginal situations like this, id just let it go

[Evigt_Drabbad]

check/call turn, fold river if unimproved, he can raise that flop with almost anything (and people do that all the time), u have outs bla bla

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]

2. Realize I have 10 outs at best and 4 outs at worst.


[/ QUOTE ]

at worst, you're drawing to 3 outs to split

[DreamShatterer]

[ QUOTE ]
6. Multiply 7 outs by 6 (5 bets in the pot plus the one I have to put in), get 42, realize 42 is not quite equal to the 46 unexposed cards in the deck, and decide that my very slight implied odds don't make up the difference.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this calcuation. Are you using King Yao's DIPOs here? If so, shouldn't you compare the 42 (outs x big bets) to the number of non outs, (46-7 = 39). In which case, calling is correct. You're probably calculating something compeletely different since you're including your bet in the calcuations, so feel free to correct me here.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
6. Multiply 7 outs by 6 (5 bets in the pot plus the one I have to put in), get 42, realize 42 is not quite equal to the 46 unexposed cards in the deck, and decide that my very slight implied odds don't make up the difference.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this calcuation. Are you using King Yao's DIPOs here? If so, shouldn't you compare the 42 (outs x big bets) to the number of non outs, (46-7 = 39). In which case, calling is correct. You're probably calculating something compeletely different since you're including your bet in the calcuations, so feel free to correct me here.

[/ QUOTE ]


I have found a way that I like to make these calculations that is kind of different from the ways others do it, but I have found it extremely fast.

The idea is this:

Your equity needs to be greater than the percentage of the pot you are contributing. For example, if you are calling on big bet into a pot that already contains 6 BB, you need to win more than 1 in 7 times to make a profit. (If you win 1 in 7, you get back a profit of 6 bb one time for every 6 times you lose 1 bb, and so you break even).

So, to figure out what your equity needs to be, you just divide the number of bets you need to put in by the total pot size after those bets are in; in other words, the size of the current pot plus your pending bet.

That ratio needs to be less than the ratio of outs you have to the total number of unseen cards.

So:

Size of bet faced/(Pot size + size of bet faced) &lt; Outs / Unseen cards

Or:

Outs * (Pot size + size of bet faced)/size of bet faced &gt; unseen cards = 46

So you take the number of outs you have, multiply by the total pot size, and compare to 46. In the situation that you are facing just one bet, this calculation is as easy as multiplying the size of the pot + 1 by your number of outs. It is a VERY FAST calculation and does wonders in the heat of battle.

It's a pretty simple matter to show that what I'm doing is the same thing as King Yao. I find my method easier (it has fewer "moving" parts) and so it has become my standard in-game method of calculation.

[DreamShatterer]

Thanks. I did some quick calculations with your method and, as you said, it seems perfectly accurate and quicker than King Yao's DIPO. Very nice style.