Purple Lounge Owns Me

[WLVRYN]

I'm afraid of posting in BBV, and I'm looking for a little information in addition to venting a bit, so that's why I'm posting this here.

I have played the monthly at Purple Lounge Casino the last two months. Deposit $300, get $300 bonus after completing $7500 of wagering. If you bust, they dont credit the bonus until you've met the wager requirement, so you have to redeposit and keep playing in order to get the bonus. No BJ allowed. They allow VP, but I've been playing 3CP instead because I thought I could play it and clear it faster and was willing to give up a little EV to get through it quicker. I play $10 a hand on the ante only and only play Q64 or better (except for the occassional misclick).

In July, I had to make $1,000 of deposits to get to $7500 (three $300 deposits and one $100 deposit). I ended up withdrawing $408, for a net loss of $892 gambling (on $7500 in wagers) and a $300 bonus.

In August, I deposited $1,500 (five $300 deposits), and withdrew $560, for a net loss of $1,240 gambling (on $7500 in wagers) and a $300 bonus.

Given that the HA is about 3.5% or so, I should likely end up down nearly $260. In the first month, I lost 3.5 times the expected loss, and the second month I lost nearly 5 times the expected loss. For the math/statistics folks out there, how likely is this?

I've had bad runs before, but it just seems unreal to me that I could have a run like this two months in a row. Needless to say, I dont think I will be going back to Purple Lounge.

[sm1030]

Variance baby Variance

[Yobz]

I busted Purple Lounge last month after $500 of WR ($10 a hand playing 3cp) so I decided to cut my losses and never play there again *sigh*

[godofgamblers]

Funny how I just tried a 3 card poker bonus on Giant Vegas. Busto betting $5 on ante so 10 afterwards. Amazing how fast your money gets drained. At $10 a bet 1000+ losses does not seem out of the ordinary from what I just experienced.

[Ballers83]

Me too. I hate this place. I think their payouts for A&F video poker are scaled down so the HA is actually a lot higher. I'll never play at this place again either.

[Blowup Doll]

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Variance baby Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. For everyone who complains about busting, there is someone who won the same amount.

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
Me too. I hate this place. I think their payouts for A&F video poker are scaled down so the HA is actually a lot higher. I'll never play at this place again either.

[/ QUOTE ]

A&F is full pay. HA is .9%

[thomasperfecto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance baby Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. For everyone who complains about busting, there is someone who won the same amount.

[/ QUOTE ]
But has anyone won the same ammount? I don't see anyone posting a win here yet.
If you've had results outside of 3 standard deviations then the odds of that are about 1 million to 1.

[Thremp]

I bustoed 1 deposit I know of someone elese who gave up after 2

[Blowup Doll]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance baby Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. For everyone who complains about busting, there is someone who won the same amount.

[/ QUOTE ]
But has anyone won the same ammount? I don't see anyone posting a win here yet.
If you've had results outside of 3 standard deviations then the odds of that are about 1 million to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winners are not as likely to come brag in this forum as losers are to complain.

Your probability assessment is not correct.

[TIO777]

After some redeposits, I won playing Aces and Faces. Just the bonus amount.

[Little_Luck]

I busto'd my first 300 at purple on 3cp at 5 dollar bets by 1500 wr. Lost about 200 more until I hit 7500 and I felt lucky. Only 100 total loss, I felt unlucky about it, but now I'm feeling pretty good about only losing 100.

[Roy6]

The Element of Risk is only 2% on the ante+raise, so you should lose only 2% of your total wagers (HA doesn't include raises).

You expect to lose 300 wagering 15k.
You lost $1852 gambling.
At $10 stakes ($20 if raised) 1 SD is 635, so you experienced a 2.9 SD, abot 0.15% chance.

[flight2q]

I don't see where OP says what his bet size was. If it was $10 bets, then his result was around 4.5 S.D. below EV. That would be pretty serious.

[Edited: Okay, I initially read the loss to be about 2400 below EV, but it was actually about 1800; the bonuses were already included. The S.D. is around 400.]

First try at Purple Lounge, I had a result about 1.5 S.D. below EV at VP. Then I played some BJ and had a result 2 S.D. below EV. Then some 3CP and had a result 3 S.D. above EV. Then some VP and had a result about 1.5 S.D. above EV.

[WLVRYN]

[ QUOTE ]
The Element of Risk is only 2% on the ante+raise, so you should lose only 2% of your total wagers (HA doesn't include raises).

You expect to lose 300 wagering 15k.
You lost $1852 gambling.
At $10 stakes ($20 if raised) 1 SD is 635, so you experienced a 2.9 SD, abot 0.15% chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Roy - that's what I was looking for, thanks. That seems pretty unrealistic, so unless I see some others with bigger wins, I'll probably stay away (though the whore in me wants to go back so bad!).

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Element of Risk is only 2% on the ante+raise, so you should lose only 2% of your total wagers (HA doesn't include raises).

You expect to lose 300 wagering 15k.
You lost $1852 gambling.
At $10 stakes ($20 if raised) 1 SD is 635, so you experienced a 2.9 SD, abot 0.15% chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Roy - that's what I was looking for, thanks. That seems pretty unrealistic, so unless I see some others with bigger wins, I'll probably stay away (though the whore in me wants to go back so bad!).

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I doing something wrong, you took this on with an EV of 40 Bucks?

Why did you ever do this bonus?

Ken

[WLVRYN]

Wager requirement is $7500 for a $300 bonus. Playing 3CP at 2%, EV is about $150.

Where'd you come up with $40?

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
Wager requirement is $7500 for a $300 bonus. Playing 3CP at 2%, EV is about $150.

Where'd you come up with $40?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK so I was doing something wrong, I thought in your original Post I thought you said the House Advantage was 3.5%.

Ken