Performify
01-20-2006, 06:17 PM
Last week delivered another solid week of picks, with wins on the Game of the Week and Tease of the Week to continue the winning results that we've been riding the past several weeks. I ended up having a little too much in teasers involving Chicago which weren't really that +EV (not crossing both the seven and the three, which are cardinal rules for getting +EV from a teaser which I was happy to ignore) which cut in to the profits for the weekend. Winning GotW and TotW should have resulted in a much larger profit for the week, even with missing on the Chicago game, but I ended up violating a system rule and having as much on the Chicago game teasers as I did on the Tease of the Week, which then negated much of the week's profits when Chicago went down in flames. But still, +2.9 units transacted for the weekend on posted picks which brings the postseason picks results to +11.0165 units and the combined NFL season picks total to +25.5165 units.
But even moreso than delivering solid results, last week's games were exciting to watch as a fan and featured some great matchups and great finishes. This week, I'm not really pleased with the games as a fan or as a capper. I believe there's some value to be found, but I will not be moving a ton of units on the NFL this week. If you're looking for serious action this week, I believe the best bet this weekend is in boxing with Eric Morales over Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night, as I discuss on Two+Two.
RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Last week: 2-2 picks and ATS, 3-0 over/under. Win on Game of the Week, win on Tease of the Week.
Postseason Picks Summary:
4-4 ATS, 5-3 SU. 3-0 on called O/U.
2-0 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-0 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +11.0165 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Combined results:
12-7 (63%) on Game of the Week, +31.5 units as posted
37-39 ATS overall, +25.5165 units NFL total YTD.
that out of the way, on to the picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Denver Broncos O/U: 41
The current teams are quite similar. Both have strong running games and strong defenses. The Steelers rely on the inside-outside tandem of Bettis and Fast Willie Parker, and the Broncos with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. However, both teams defend the run well and have fast, athletic linebackers. Denver is the NFL's #5 offense, 2nd in rushing and 18th in passing. Denver's defense is ranked #15 overall, 2nd at stopping the run and a dismal 29th against the pass. Pittsburgh is tied as the 15th overall offense, 5th in rushing and 24th in passing. The Blittzburgh defense is 4th overall, 3rd against the rush and 16th against the pass. Both teams are exceedingly equal in scoring: Denver scored 24.7 points per game in the regular season and Pittsburgh averaged 24.3 points. Each team allowed 16.1 points per game.
The team who wins will be the one who can stop the run and pressure the quarterback in to making mistakes. Denver 9-0 at home this season, has a a better shut-down corner in Champ Bailey (one key interception could be the difference in the game). The Steelers are playing what amounts to their sixth playoff game in a row, and their third in a row on the road. Pittsburgh Coach Bill Cowher is 1-4 in AFC Championship Games. The Broncos are 4-0 in AFC Championship Games played in Denver and are riding an 11-game home winning streak No #6 seed has ever reached the Super Bowl since the NFL went to its current playoff system in 1990. Asking for seven straight wins, including three consecutive on the road, is just too much despite the talent of this team and its head coach.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Steelers 14, finishes under 41. Game of the Week.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U: 41
Sean Alexander has practiced all week and will start for Seattle. We won't know how capable he'll be once he starts taking hits, but I'm operating under the assumption he's going to be fine, and if not Seattle proved they could win without him last week. Even if Alexander isn't 100% or even 80%, the Seahawks can get production from Maurice Morris and Mack Strong.
The Panthers' DeShaun Foster broke his ankle last week and will be replaced by fullback Nick Goings. Goings is a solid running back, he did rush for 821 yards last season in seven games. But he's still a little bit of a dropoff and more importantly leaves the Panthers hurting for depth at running back. Panthers star defensive end Julius Peppers is listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be anywhere near 100% if he does play. He didn't practice all week. Carolina will miss him tremendously. Seattle loves to run at the defensive ends, especially left behind Pro Bowl and All Pro LT Walter Jones and LG Steve Hutchinson.
To succeed, Seattle will need to generate pressure on Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, and will need to double, tripple or quadruple team Steve Smith. I suggest putting six defensive backs on him, two to front him, two behind him, one in tight man, and one playing 15 yards off. Carolina will still find some way to get him the ball.
The Seahawks allowed just 59 rushing yards last weekend. If the Seahawks can shut down the run again, Seattle should be able to create third-and-long situations (by stopping the run on first and second downs), and then if they can bring enough pressure on Delhomme on third downs and blanket Steve Smith at the same time, they'll be pretty successful.
Matchup-wise, Carolina brings in the #22 overall offense, #19 rushing and #17 passing. Carolina is of course the #3 overall defense, #4 in stopping the run and #9 in stopping the pass. Seattle brings in the NFL's #2 offense, #3 in rushing and #13 passing. Seattle's defense is tied for 16th overall, and is #5 against the rush but only #25 against the pass.
Qwest Field is one of the toughest places to play at in the NFL, so homefield advantage is huge here: opponents committed a league-high 24 false starts at Qwest Field this season. Carolina is trying to do something no one else has done in NFL history: win five consecutive postseason road games. And while Carolina has proven that they're great on the road in the post-season, Seattle is 22-3 record at home since Week 16 of the 2002 season including 9-0 at home this year. This is also a public perception play, with Wagerline listing the game at 60% Carolina 40% Seattle.
Prediction: Seattle 28, Carolina 24. Game finishes over.
Tease of the Week: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but I believe there's a lot of value in moving these games across the 3 (Steelers), 7 (both), and win/tie on the 10. I believe both of this weekend's games should be close, and I feel this is a good middling hedge which has a great opportunity to payout both directions if the games are close as predicted.
Plays for the week, for the record:
Denver -3 (-112) : three units. Game of the week.
Seattle -3.5 (+105) : one unit.
Tease: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5: to win three units.
Tease: Pitt/Denver Under 48, Carolina/Seattle Over 36.5, to win one unit.
As usual, all feedback/thoughts/discussions/etc welcome... and best of luck to everyone this week.
But even moreso than delivering solid results, last week's games were exciting to watch as a fan and featured some great matchups and great finishes. This week, I'm not really pleased with the games as a fan or as a capper. I believe there's some value to be found, but I will not be moving a ton of units on the NFL this week. If you're looking for serious action this week, I believe the best bet this weekend is in boxing with Eric Morales over Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night, as I discuss on Two+Two.
RESULTS and YTD SUMMARY
Last week: 2-2 picks and ATS, 3-0 over/under. Win on Game of the Week, win on Tease of the Week.
Postseason Picks Summary:
4-4 ATS, 5-3 SU. 3-0 on called O/U.
2-0 on posteason Game of the Week. 2-0 on postseason Tease of the Week.
Postseason Results: +11.0165 units
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Combined results:
12-7 (63%) on Game of the Week, +31.5 units as posted
37-39 ATS overall, +25.5165 units NFL total YTD.
that out of the way, on to the picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Denver Broncos O/U: 41
The current teams are quite similar. Both have strong running games and strong defenses. The Steelers rely on the inside-outside tandem of Bettis and Fast Willie Parker, and the Broncos with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. However, both teams defend the run well and have fast, athletic linebackers. Denver is the NFL's #5 offense, 2nd in rushing and 18th in passing. Denver's defense is ranked #15 overall, 2nd at stopping the run and a dismal 29th against the pass. Pittsburgh is tied as the 15th overall offense, 5th in rushing and 24th in passing. The Blittzburgh defense is 4th overall, 3rd against the rush and 16th against the pass. Both teams are exceedingly equal in scoring: Denver scored 24.7 points per game in the regular season and Pittsburgh averaged 24.3 points. Each team allowed 16.1 points per game.
The team who wins will be the one who can stop the run and pressure the quarterback in to making mistakes. Denver 9-0 at home this season, has a a better shut-down corner in Champ Bailey (one key interception could be the difference in the game). The Steelers are playing what amounts to their sixth playoff game in a row, and their third in a row on the road. Pittsburgh Coach Bill Cowher is 1-4 in AFC Championship Games. The Broncos are 4-0 in AFC Championship Games played in Denver and are riding an 11-game home winning streak No #6 seed has ever reached the Super Bowl since the NFL went to its current playoff system in 1990. Asking for seven straight wins, including three consecutive on the road, is just too much despite the talent of this team and its head coach.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Steelers 14, finishes under 41. Game of the Week.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U: 41
Sean Alexander has practiced all week and will start for Seattle. We won't know how capable he'll be once he starts taking hits, but I'm operating under the assumption he's going to be fine, and if not Seattle proved they could win without him last week. Even if Alexander isn't 100% or even 80%, the Seahawks can get production from Maurice Morris and Mack Strong.
The Panthers' DeShaun Foster broke his ankle last week and will be replaced by fullback Nick Goings. Goings is a solid running back, he did rush for 821 yards last season in seven games. But he's still a little bit of a dropoff and more importantly leaves the Panthers hurting for depth at running back. Panthers star defensive end Julius Peppers is listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be anywhere near 100% if he does play. He didn't practice all week. Carolina will miss him tremendously. Seattle loves to run at the defensive ends, especially left behind Pro Bowl and All Pro LT Walter Jones and LG Steve Hutchinson.
To succeed, Seattle will need to generate pressure on Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, and will need to double, tripple or quadruple team Steve Smith. I suggest putting six defensive backs on him, two to front him, two behind him, one in tight man, and one playing 15 yards off. Carolina will still find some way to get him the ball.
The Seahawks allowed just 59 rushing yards last weekend. If the Seahawks can shut down the run again, Seattle should be able to create third-and-long situations (by stopping the run on first and second downs), and then if they can bring enough pressure on Delhomme on third downs and blanket Steve Smith at the same time, they'll be pretty successful.
Matchup-wise, Carolina brings in the #22 overall offense, #19 rushing and #17 passing. Carolina is of course the #3 overall defense, #4 in stopping the run and #9 in stopping the pass. Seattle brings in the NFL's #2 offense, #3 in rushing and #13 passing. Seattle's defense is tied for 16th overall, and is #5 against the rush but only #25 against the pass.
Qwest Field is one of the toughest places to play at in the NFL, so homefield advantage is huge here: opponents committed a league-high 24 false starts at Qwest Field this season. Carolina is trying to do something no one else has done in NFL history: win five consecutive postseason road games. And while Carolina has proven that they're great on the road in the post-season, Seattle is 22-3 record at home since Week 16 of the 2002 season including 9-0 at home this year. This is also a public perception play, with Wagerline listing the game at 60% Carolina 40% Seattle.
Prediction: Seattle 28, Carolina 24. Game finishes over.
Tease of the Week: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5
Requires laying the larger juice for the seven-point teaser, but I believe there's a lot of value in moving these games across the 3 (Steelers), 7 (both), and win/tie on the 10. I believe both of this weekend's games should be close, and I feel this is a good middling hedge which has a great opportunity to payout both directions if the games are close as predicted.
Plays for the week, for the record:
Denver -3 (-112) : three units. Game of the week.
Seattle -3.5 (+105) : one unit.
Tease: Steelers +10, Panthers +10.5: to win three units.
Tease: Pitt/Denver Under 48, Carolina/Seattle Over 36.5, to win one unit.
As usual, all feedback/thoughts/discussions/etc welcome... and best of luck to everyone this week.