Tradesports has contract on internet gambling law

[Uglyowl]

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/...wExpired=false# (http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=55670&eventSelect=55670&updat eList=true&showExpired=false#)

Started at a price of 25.

[TruePoker CEO]

1.If you are from the US and bet the law will pass, how do you collect ? Actually, how do you collect in any event ?

2.It might be interesting to track this contract price versus Party's share price.

3. Think there will be sufficient volume to lay off the industry's collective risk ? (doubtful)

[Uglyowl]

It's under Legal->United States Law->New Internet Gaming Law Passed and Signed

My link no longer works, but another poster in internet put up the path.

Once again the bidding is starting around a 25% chance of passing.

[Rhett]

What happens to everyone's Truepoker bankroll if this law passes?

[Zele]

I think Wynton said 3:1 last week. Nice work, Wynton.

Edit: Berge too.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Wynton said 3:1 last week. Nice work, Wynton.

Edit: Berge too.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wouldn't shock me if Tradesports have been reading over these threads.

In any event, this is a pretty weird contract. A lot of gamblers have to be tempted to bet the "yes" side of this contract as a hedge against losing income stream if this bill passes. On the other hand, this might not be such a good hedge, if you have trouble collecting on the "yes" side of a bet.

Anyway, one more thing to obsess over. But, I susepct that PartyGaming/888 stock, etc., is still the more important market indicator to watch.

[Uglyowl]

I would follow other non-legal news as well (to make sure it is not something else) and maybe add Neteller, Cryptologic, etc, into the mix.

I think tradesports will be pretty close though.

[Zele]

Yeah, it's only 5up on the bid and 20 on the offer right now (and 13 points wide). Not exactly a deep and liquid market. I think I'll be watching out of the corner of my eye, but I agree that the stock is a better source of information.

Of course, tradesports can be very efficient if it gets deep and liquid - it absolutely hit the bullseye in the 2004 presidential elections - in every state, if I remeber correctly.

[Uglyowl]

This contract just opened today, so it will only get better.

I think it is safe to say based on all information the odds are between 15-30% right now. Also this will be a great way to track this since they have charts etc.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
This contract just opened today, so it will only get better.

I think it is safe to say based on all information the odds are between 15-30% right now. Also this will be a great way to track this since they have charts etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to see what unfolds the next few days, and where the Gitmo/Stem Cell/Water Resources/Pensions/Appropriations fights stand in the Senate, but if the price on this contract remains so low, and nothing else changes as far as outlook in the Senate, I'll be signing on and buying.

[Zele]

Still not particularly liquid, but the price seems to be pretty well established at 30. No real reaction to the BoS situation.

I am really going to miss using tradesports for price discovery if this bill passes and can be enforced.

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
I am really going to miss using tradesports for price discovery if this bill passes and can be enforced.

[/ QUOTE ]


American Idol wouldn't be the same!

[Mr.K]

As I understand things, the law would prevent sports betting and blackjack, but would it futures trading on American Idol? If that activity would be prohibited, then how far do you have to go to be legitimate? Is the difference the fact that the contracts are not issued by the entities they're based on? Or that there is no actual underlying good or service they're tied to? At some point, the difference between speculating on whether event x or not happen and speculating on the price of gold vanishes, and I gather there are some very interesting legal issues at this crossroads.

EDIT: Also, IMO, knowing what I know right now, I believe a contract price of 30 to 35 seems fair. As I have discussed with a few others, there is some chance that I'll reach a very different conclusion one way or another in a few days after talking to some well-placed people, but for now, seems the market has done its job. I do think the short-term volatility of the contract on tradesports should probably stay low the next 14 to 18 days, as it seems there is little chance the Senate would act on the bill before breaking for the August recess (last day of voting should be August 3 or 4. What this recess will do is give the various stakeholders time to strategize and begin to announce their plans, and we should start to see the plot develop publicly by the time the Senate returns to session on September 5.

Parting thought: not to throw cold water on chances of passage unnecessarily, but I rather doubt the Democrats are in a mood to give Sen. Kyl, one of the higher (but not highest) tier targets this cycle, a victory on one of his signature issues less than four months before the elections. Point being, the bill would be a Kyl bill (if a new one is introduced in the Senate), or a just a general victory for Kyl (if the House one is modified to his liking and passed, follwed by House passage of the bill as modified by the Senate). This is not a huge difference-maker, but it is worth noting.