Quick question, not sure where to post

[ski]

How often does a bill pass in the house by 3/4th+ majority and then get shot down for a simple majority in the senate?

Do we have any hope here?

[cowboy.up]

senate leaders have said that this bill is not top priority. from the looks of it, it won't even be voted on this session. if it makes it to the floor, it'll be close, but our best chance is that it doesn't even get voted on (a much more likely thing)

[Mr.K]

Statistics are going to be worthless to you in this case, trust me. Each bill is in a unique situation in Congress, and while some may fall into general classes that tend to act the same way, this one is going to defy those patterns. In fact, it already has a history of that, in that it was voted down on the suspension calendar several years ago in the House at a time when it was widely expected to pass.

The truth of the matter is that nobody can give an accurate assessment of how likely the bill is to pass the Senate or become law at this time. Too many key factors remain unclear, such as what Sen. Kyl's specific plans are, whether Senate leadership will afford him the necessary floor time or amendment opportunities to succeed, what opposition if any will arise from the left, what form that opposition will take (just bland opposition, holds, germane amendments, non-germane amendments like minimum wage), and so on. The Senate works in a very different manner than the House, most notably in that the floor is a much more open place in the Senate, and whereas in the House Democrats just bitched about minimum wages and then had no ability to attach that issue to the gambling bill, in the Senate they will have an ability to force a vote on doing so, if they are so inclined.

Bottom line: you have asked a very simple question for which there is no answer at this time. When an answer does surface, it will likely be very complex.

[ski]

bump...I understand every bill is unique, but does this happen often where a bill passes by 3/4th then gets shot down for 1/2?

[dustyn]

[ QUOTE ]
bump...I understand every bill is unique, but does this happen often where a bill passes by 3/4th then gets shot down for 1/2?

[/ QUOTE ]

This question is irrelevent/unimportant. If the bill hits the floor, it will almost certainly pass. However, factors that other posters have mentioned make this unlikely. But let's face it, if this actually makes the floor, it has a ~95% chance of passing imo. Keep in mind, for this to happen, it will need to drum up a lot of support from the Senate and priority from leadership to pass in a very short time frame, which at this point has not happened. It's a situation, imo, where if it makes it to the point of a vote it's because it has a) the priority and b) the support to pass. It's getting to the floor that's very unlikely, not passing if it hits there. Therefore, your question is pretty much irrelevent. If it makes floor, it almost definitely passes.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
bump...I understand every bill is unique, but does this happen often where a bill passes by 3/4th then gets shot down for 1/2?

[/ QUOTE ]

did you read my f'ing post? I guess not. I will repeat. Stats do not matter here.

Dustyn makes some interesting points, but I'd add that if the bill clears the Senate, it will quite possibly go without a roll call vote. This is the kind of bill that might go via voice vote or unanimous consent if the stars align for it. TONS of lower profile bills pass by these means - usually when a deal is reached between members of the parties or between the House and Senate for a particular outcome. This bill may seem high profile to the people on this forum, but in the context of the other things Congress is dealing with, it is a speck.

Anybody that claims to know what the deal is on this bill right now -- even John Kyl himself -- would be FOS if they said they knew how this will play out right now. Too many variables, no more than a few of which are under any one individual's control. Wait 10 to 14 days, and we'll have a better, though still substantially incomplete, idea of where things stand.

The best answers aren't always the most gratifying, bud.