How likely is it that HR4411 is signed into a law? (poll)

[bate_nasko]

Hi everyone,

Thought a poll might give some idea about what is the prevalent opinion among the people in this forum. I believe that this is the best place to ask (rather than the zoo for example) as I notice that a number of people here are knowledgeable about the issue.

Thanks in advance for taking the time to make an 'educated' guess /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Nasko

[Berge20]

Anywhere from 3:1 to 5:1 against IMO

I'm probably on the end of the spectrum of people that feel this has a legitimate shot to become law, so it should still give you a realistic projection of how difficult this process is.

However, even with those odds (or even worse, say 10:1) I am shocked at how this community seems to breeze over the potential negative impact this could have if it becomes law. I see a lot of out right dismissal, which I view as a head in the sand attitdue or wishful thinking.

[catlover]

Those odds are high enough that we need to take this seriously.

[Hock_]

[ QUOTE ]
However, even with those odds (or even worse, say 10:1) I am shocked at how this community seems to breeze over the potential negative impact this could have if it becomes law. I see a lot of out right dismissal, which I view as a head in the sand attitdue or wishful thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DING-DONG YO]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However, even with those odds (or even worse, say 10:1) I am shocked at how this community seems to breeze over the potential negative impact this could have if it becomes law. I see a lot of out right dismissal, which I view as a head in the sand attitdue or wishful thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Take this seriously or start filling out those applications at Best Buy guys.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Those odds are high enough that we need to take this seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, even if the odds are 10:1.

By the way, my vote was 3:1.

[bate_nasko]

I am taking it seriously and I don't even live in the US. Wish I could do sth. to help...

Also, sorry for the shameless bump but some people might have not seen the poll. Here are how the results shape up so far:
- 65 total votes
- 35 people or approx. 54% of those who voted think it is more likely that no law will be signed this year
- 7 people or 11% of those who voted think it is a fair coin toss (equally likely to go either way)
- 9 people or 14% of those who voted think that it is more likely that HR4411 will be signed into a law
- 14 people or approx. 21% of those who voted cannot make a good guess

Nasko

[Artsemis]

I feel sorry for your swolen ego. Not everyone started early enough to take advantage.

[Push_Fold]

[ QUOTE ]


If you haven't saved enough money during the poker boom to not have to work at Best Buy, I feel sorry for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all of us play 1000-2000NL, a lot of us play 100-400NL. I play 100NL and no I don't have a massive saving I make a decent living for me from it and that is it.

If you want to feel sorry for me feel sorry that I may not get the chance to grind my way up to the 5000NL game now offered at Party.

[Zele]

"[censored] you money" is probably about $5,000,000 these days, give or take depending on your lifestyle and age, so I doubt many of us here have made enough during the poker boom to never work again.

[Tk79]

[ QUOTE ]

If you haven't saved enough money during the poker boom to not have to work at Best Buy, I feel sorry for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
You play g00t.

TIP: dont be johnny busto at the WSOP like others (dont know who).

[bigt2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
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If you haven't saved enough money during the poker boom to not have to work at Best Buy, I feel sorry for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all of us play 1000-2000NL, a lot of us play 100-400NL. I play 100NL and no I don't have a massive saving I make a decent living for me from it and that is it.

If you want to feel sorry for me feel sorry that I may not get the chance to grind my way up to the 5000NL game now offered at Party.

[/ QUOTE ]

move up and run good quickly, you prolly have a larger roll than I do and I play 1000NL, full ring and 6 max.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I am taking it seriously and I don't even live in the US. Wish I could do sth. to help...

Also, sorry for the shameless bump but some people might have not seen the poll. Here are how the results shape up so far:
- 65 total votes
- 35 people or approx. 54% of those who voted think it is more likely that no law will be signed this year
- 7 people or 11% of those who voted think it is a fair coin toss (equally likely to go either way)
- 9 people or 14% of those who voted think that it is more likely that HR4411 will be signed into a law
- 14 people or approx. 21% of those who voted cannot make a good guess

Nasko

[/ QUOTE ]

The weighted average is about 27%. So 2+2 is laying odds of about 3-1 against.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am taking it seriously and I don't even live in the US. Wish I could do sth. to help...

Also, sorry for the shameless bump but some people might have not seen the poll. Here are how the results shape up so far:
- 65 total votes
- 35 people or approx. 54% of those who voted think it is more likely that no law will be signed this year
- 7 people or 11% of those who voted think it is a fair coin toss (equally likely to go either way)
- 9 people or 14% of those who voted think that it is more likely that HR4411 will be signed into a law
- 14 people or approx. 21% of those who voted cannot make a good guess

Nasko

[/ QUOTE ]

The weighted average is about 27%. So 2+2 is laying odds of about 3-1 against.

[/ QUOTE ]

are there political forums similar to 2+2 that we could pose this question to?

[sublime]

this place (http://www.uspoliticsonline.com/forums/) looks busy. somebody want to pose a question to them? not that we dont have intelligent people here, but these are the types of people who follow this stuff year round. i dont want to post any questions because i dont get my points across well.

no search function there so i didnt see the issue being discussed. i am still looking for other places.

[Mr.K]

[ QUOTE ]
this place (http://www.uspoliticsonline.com/forums/) looks busy. somebody want to pose a question to them? not that we dont have intelligent people here, but these are the types of people who follow this stuff year round. i dont want to post any questions because i dont get my points across well.

no search function there so i didnt see the issue being discussed. i am still looking for other places.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know anything about the forums you linked to, but I assure you, you have quite enough here in the 2+2 legislation forum to get very, very, very good answers to questions about the Internet gambling bill. There are a few posters here who are extraordinarily well placed to give an insider's assessment of where things stand. You'd have to get someone on the Senate Judiciary Committee or PPA staff to get better dirt than what we have here.

I maintain that we cannot have a good idea of how likely this is to pass for the time being. We need more time to see how key players set their respective courses. Sen. Reid has already partially tipped his hand, and done so in a very unhelpful direction for those opposing the House bill. Sens. Kyl, Specter, Frist, and Leahy have not yet made statements, and anything from them would give us additional knowledge on which to make an assessment. Also, external factors like other legislative needs, world events, and such will play a role in whether the Senate has time to take the bill up.

I do agree with Berge20, though, that the likelyhood of enactment into law is MUCH higher than most in the community are giving credit for. MUCH higher. From the standpoint of those who oppose the bill, the woeful lack of action on the part of the wealthy online cardrooms should be extremely alarming. They have the funding to kill this bill for a few months, and I don't see them taking the steps necessary to do so.

This poll is, therefore, a bunch of uninformed and partially informed speculation, and in my view, of almost no value. Come back in two weeks and we'll be able to identify with much more certainty what the likelyhood of passage is.

[Zele]

Depending on your level of belief in efficient markets, the movement of the stock price of PartyGaming (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?ti=PRTY) can give you some idea of how the probability is changing. Be sure to keep track of how the indices are moving (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/indices.htm) to gauge how much of the movement in the stock is due to the general market and not to PRTY's idiosyncratic risks.

[Wynton]

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From the standpoint of those who oppose the bill, the woeful lack of action on the part of the wealthy online cardrooms should be extremely alarming. They have the funding to kill this bill for a few months, and I don't see them taking the steps necessary to do so.

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I've always found the lack of visible activity by the cardrooms alarming, as well as the lack of apparent activity by ISPs and financial institutions. Yet, I've hoped that these parties are simply being active behind the scenes.

Educate those of us without an insight into lobbying. Is it likely that there could be significant lobbying occuring out of public view? Or would such lobbying necessarily entail a certain amount of publicity?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From the standpoint of those who oppose the bill, the woeful lack of action on the part of the wealthy online cardrooms should be extremely alarming. They have the funding to kill this bill for a few months, and I don't see them taking the steps necessary to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always found the lack of visible activity by the cardrooms alarming, as well as the lack of apparent activity by ISPs and financial institutions. Yet, I've hoped that these parties are simply being active behind the scenes.

Educate those of us without an insight into lobbying. Is it likely that there could be significant lobbying occuring out of public view? Or would such lobbying necessarily entail a certain amount of publicity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that much of the apparent motivation to pass the bill in the House was based on the fallout from the Abramoff scandal. And, that lobbying from foreign-based coroporations is never liable to go over particuarly well. Certainly, if I were in a high-level position at an online poker site, I'd be doing an awful lot of lobbying, and I'd be doing it as discreetly as possible.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Depending on your level of belief in efficient markets, the movement of the stock price of PartyGaming (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?ti=PRTY) can give you some idea of how the probability is changing. Be sure to keep track of how the indices are moving (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/indices.htm) to gauge how much of the movement in the stock is due to the general market and not to PRTY's idiosyncratic risks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, over the past three months, the stock has lost about 20% relative to the overall market. Although I realize that it is not quite this simple, I believe that this is probably a relatively good proxy for the risk the market assigns to the legislation being passed. This 20% number is broadly consistent with the probabilities established by both expert (e.g. Berge's) and consensus opinion.

[Wynton]

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if I were in a high-level position at an online poker site, I'd be doing an awful lot of lobbying, and I'd be doing it as discreetly as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but there is no obvious reason why ISPs or financial institutions should be so discreet. And what I'm really curious about is whether intensive, behind-the-scenes lobbying really does remain out of public view for long, considering how prone to gossip D.C. can be.