can BACCARAT be beat?

[canada_dry]

I love Baccarat, but am i kidding myself to think I can beat it? I have had good runs at times, then terrible ones and overall a loser so i've stopped playing, but...

any advice? /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Tony_P]

I don't see how you could think it could be beat. It is a simple guessing game, and naturally the casino designs it to give itself the advantage. Player & Banker bets have a HA under 2%, with the banker bet being slightly better, even with commission. Tie bet has something crazy like 13-15% HA. Wizard of Odds should have the exact numbers.

[cardcounter0]

[ QUOTE ]
but am i kidding myself to think I can beat it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Scott_Baio]

Banker bet is +EV if the commission drops to 2% or less. Look for casinos that might have limited time promotions, otherwise like any other casino game, it's designed to make the casino money, not you.

[bogey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but am i kidding myself to think I can beat it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

wasn't there some type of counting system developed that can at least decrease the house edge a little bit?

[SheetWise]

Links to this kind of crap should be removed from the forum.

Horses? Maybe. But I doubt it can be done without knowing owners and trainers.

Baccarat? Get real.

[OrangeKing]

This pretty much takes care of the silly idea of counting/otherwise beating Baccarat: http://wizardofodds.com/baccarat/baccaratapx2.html

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
I love Baccarat, but am i kidding myself to think I can beat it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you have any special psychic abilities we should factor in?

[RoundTower]

Mike Caro has this to say from http://www.poker1.com/absolutenm/templates/mculib_articles.aspx?articleid=109&zoneid=3

[ QUOTE ]
Baccarat can theoretically be beat with an elaborate count system that involves remaining cards in combinations, but for practical purposes, this isn't a game you should likely pursue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this wrong, or outdated? Does anyone know exactly what Caro is talking about here?

[Terry]

Peter Griffin did extensive studies of Baccarat count systems. I'm pretty sure the results are published in "Theory of Blackjack" but it might be in "Extra Stuff--Gambling Ramblings".

End result is that counting can find some situations with positive EV but those situations are so rare they can't be exploited for profit.

Both books are available from ConJelCo, (http://conjelco.com/other.html)as is Baccarat Buster software if you want to test your own system.

[Quicksilvre]

[ QUOTE ]
Poor souls! They must lie around all day determining what comes next in a betting sequence like 3-5-2-1-7. Such analysis takes a great deal of time. Do you suppose these guys ever get laid?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is easily the best line in the article.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
Peter Griffin did extensive studies of Baccarat count systems.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL I think I'll stay away from this

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL I think I'll stay away from this

[/ QUOTE ]
Peter Griffin not Robert Griffin.

[Ihsan]

Just like any casino game, baccarat can be beat. You have a big advantage if you know the first card out of the shoe. You could also look for new dealers that don't know the archaic rules of the game. It would take some time to analyze the dealer's mistakes to find the correct play.

[cardcounter0]

The late Peter Griffin was a math professor from UCLA.
He did much of the ground breaking mathematical work of exactly why card counting works. His book, "The Theory of Blackjack" is still one of the essential reference books for a serious student of the blackjack game. I don't know but would be willing to bet that Slanksky's book is titled "The Theory of Poker" partially out of respect for the reputation of "The Theory of Blackjack".

[Cowboy21]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know exactly what Caro is talking about here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to dish the man, but I've asked this myself several times sitting with "The Mad Genius" Sorry, off the subject, but I just couldn't resist.

JJ

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Peter Griffin did extensive studies of Baccarat count systems. I'm pretty sure the results are published in "Theory of Blackjack" but it might be in "Extra Stuff--Gambling Ramblings".

End result is that counting can find some situations with positive EV but those situations are so rare they can't be exploited for profit.


[/ QUOTE ]
Does this mean that you could beat it if you are allowed spread high enough, or that you can beat it, but +EV situations come along so infrequently that you can't make very much? I don't have access to either of the books, and I'm only really interested in the game theoretically.

[stigmata]

He means you would have to make a huge bet spread, and only once in every few months would you actually get a positive count, meaning your hourly rate was a pittence but with huge variance. Not much fun, makes it impossible for all intensive purposes. Read about it somewhere on the wizard off odds.

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Read about it somewhere on the wizard off odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I feel stupid, not having read that earlier. I like the idea of only making a bet every $475 hands, betting a minimum of $1000, and profiting 70 cents an hour.

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the idea of only making a bet every $475 hands, betting a minimum of $1000, and profiting 70 cents an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, maybe baccarat is the game for you!

[grdred944]

[ QUOTE ]
Links to this kind of crap should be removed from the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you always this quick to promote censorship? It may not be a 'system' that you care for (I certainly don't care for it) but the link did provide information for the original poster to ponder -- right or wrong.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Links to this kind of crap should be removed from the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you always this quick to promote censorship? It may not be a 'system' that you care for (I certainly don't care for it) but the link did provide information for the original poster to ponder -- right or wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right was not a possibility. That's the problem.

[ QUOTE ]
A Baccarat system. A FLAT BETTING baccarat methodology that could stand the test of time. Ultimate Precision Baccarat was the result. Testing of over 2000 shoes from live Casino's to high tech computer software went into its creation. A + 2.1 net profit per shoe flat betting was the result. It's not an easy road, a get rich quick or glamorous lifestyle one might imagine. With hard work and dedication towards the study of this baccarat method you will be directed toward a brighter path. A winning path. A direction where you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. With practice, patience and a ton of discipline your dreams can come true.

...


Your winning shoe range will be between 70% to 80% win to loss shoe ratio.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good buy. Good bye $59.95.

[edfurlong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Links to this kind of crap should be removed from the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you always this quick to promote censorship? It may not be a 'system' that you care for (I certainly don't care for it) but the link did provide information for the original poster to ponder -- right or wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem isn't so much that it's a stupid site. The problem is that it is the posters site and it contains advertising. Its spam.

Not to say that the site isn't stupid. It is.

Example (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=bonus&Number=4443152&Sear chpage=1&Main=4351880&Words=+TheMav&topic=&Search= true#Post4443152)

Hmm. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=genpok&Number=3511949&Sea rchpage=1&Main=3510532&Words=www.ultimateprecision gaming.com&topic=&Search=true#Post3511949)

Thats odd. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=inet&Number=3189693&Searc hpage=1&Main=3189693&Words=www.ultimateprecisionga ming.com&topic=&Search=true#Post3189693)

Links like this should be removed.

[FCBLComish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Peter Griffin did extensive studies of Baccarat count systems.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did he get help from Brian and Stewie?

[tom10167]

Where does the Bacc edge come from? In BJ it's the dealer acting last.

Bacc?

[Terry]

Banker wins more often than Player. Banker pays commission on winning bets.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
In BJ it's the dealer acting last.


[/ QUOTE ]
In baccarat the bank acts last.

[xxx]

Jessy May had a section on advantage systems in Baccarat for the clueless. This included a counting system, and some discussions of shuffle tracking and front loading if I recall correctly.

The bottom line was that even with great penetration and the house willing to let you jump in at any time, there was very little earn possible. The exception was if the house would deal every card, by keeping track of the cards you would be able to identify some situations where a tie was going to happen. In that case, you jump in and quickly bet the max on tie. You get a chance to make this bet every few days, if you are standing at the high stakes table counting for 8 hours a day.

[Gene Paulson]

I play Baccart as a pro on the Web and in Vegas, I play sometimes a double up system or a double and change with a end or a fractional after loss with a double overall at end of set if lost, I use a progam that generates 1000 hands of Baccarat and go over any thing that is interesting; the odds are good and doubling is play able. But watch out for cheating as Thorpe stats in his book on BJ casinos all cheat and those innocent miss deals are not all by mistake, the web online casinos are very unreal also, I can beat any honest game Baccarat big Baccarat is gooder,[ So what I do is play a system and get in the flow and then plunge if the system is covering I read the luck of the draw I get into a feel were I know I am going to loss and then bet against the system easy. I have hit huge streaks with the doule up when you lose were one side never goes on for more then 7-8 times more like a jackpot as the dealer is giving me all the money. I play a site called Millionaire Casino it is the highest stakes and uses only one deck. I played Binions during the WSOP last summer they have a 5d-2000d table so you can play 5's and profit but watch out some dealers chest so leave if they seem to notice you are only playing one side, you don't have to play for long and it is better to make bigger bets then play longer. The Bell which has the high stakes area has a ton of big Bac i that section I play 50d just add up you cost and stay for that, so time you can double up then after you win only drop one level 5,10,20,40,W,20w,10, etc. Make a progession roll and bet its total then quit. My advice is to take it personal not as a math thing if you lose it is beating you not you can by probality gain, like a wild animal you want to catch or something that is over the question of if the casino will give you money or not. So think to yourself "Does this casino want to give me a bag of money today?"

[Gene Paulson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Read about it somewhere on the wizard off odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I feel stupid, not having read that earlier. I like the idea of only making a bet every $475 hands, betting a minimum of $1000, and profiting 70 cents an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]I make much more then .70d a hour mate; I can clear no sweat 1,500d an hour only betting 50d hands; that rap of Caro's is about math and odds not winning Baccarat is not like poker it is like finding water in the Neveda desert you smell it

[Gene Paulson]

You would be suprised that those odds are not per 1000 hands which is more true to the actual situations many times tie is better then the 8-1 odds, I once played a game that had 5 ties in a row! you had to be a chicken to nnot at least try a tie when seeing that,

[Gene Paulson]

All the edge if you can use that is in the rules bankers stand more and hit the third card last, Players have to stand more from two cards also Bankers total of 3 cann't hit on a third card of 8 for players. But it is much easier then BJ and doesn't use those edge systems.

[SheetWise]

I think it's time to lock this thread -- before Gene gives away all of the secrets we've worked so hard to learn.

[Terry]

ROTFLMFAO

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
... its my way of giving back to my fellow Baccarat players.

[/ QUOTE ]
How generous of you. Reminds me of a girl who gave me the clap.

Come to think of it, I never did thank her.

[Toonces]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... its my way of giving back to my fellow Baccarat players.

[/ QUOTE ]
How generous of you. Reminds me of a girl who gave me the clap.

Come to think of it, I never did thank her.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROTFL!

[cardcounter0]

[ QUOTE ]
Baccarat is not like poker it is like finding water in the Neveda desert you smell it

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, this guy almost spilled the beans on the secret "smell" system of beating Baccarat.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
A 1% disadvantage is impossible to overcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Man, this guy almost spilled the beans on the secret "smell" system of beating Baccarat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Almost. I thought this thread would be locked by now.
You do realize that if this information gets in the wrong hands -- the clubs will do to baccarat what they've done to blackjack. There have heen over 2,640 views already. For the love of God is there no way to stop this?!

[BobJoeJim]

Gene! Come to my house, I'll spread some Baccarat for you! It will be a fair game, I promise, bring lot's of cash /images/graemlins/wink.gif