Rate of Ruin at Omni Casino?

[skierdude1000]

100% on $100
25XBonus WR ($2500)

so I got $200 to play with, but problem is that $3 is minbet. What's the range that I end up with on average and how often do I bust completely?

[Dave Coulier]

Not to be rude, but $3 minbet really isn't the problem here. That gives you 66.66 bets. You really shouldn't be worried about busting with that many bets. I size my bets so that I have 20-25 bets when doing a bonus and I have done just fine with that.

[Packard]

Good point Dave.

OP, The Omni minimum bet is fine with that WR. At the minimum bet ($3) with all the settings/sounds turned off and play put on turbo most blackjack players can clear the WR in less than two hours and it would take a totally frozen wave to have a losing site with those $3 bets the whole way.

[brendanb438]

I was up about $3 after clearing the WR there plus the $100 bonus so it is worth doing.

Brendan

[nivaman]

[ QUOTE ]
... most blackjack players can clear the WR in less than two hours ...

[/ QUOTE ]
some of us (casino who-res) have more time than money /images/graemlins/frown.gif

risk of ruin would be (according to the wiz)...
833 bets/67 betting-units gives RoR ~5%

[Olin Prefleup]

I just finished doing Omni; I've been casino whoring only for 2 months and usually flat bet $2/hand, but since I won $115 incl. bonus at Intercasino this month i decided to try $5 Pontoon, and finished at $450 1 hour and a half later /images/graemlins/cool.gif; you might want to try it if you dont mind risking the $100 bonus or dont feel like grinding it, plus it's more fun (and enfuriating). According to the formula that nivaman posted ROR should be 12.5%

The variance is huge, though, one moment I was at $350 and 10 minutes later I was yelling at the monitor while getting a K on a doubled 4 card 12 with a $200 balance.

[nivaman]

[ QUOTE ]
According to the formula that nivaman posted ROR should be 12.5%


[/ QUOTE ]
just to get this straight...

[ QUOTE ]
833 bets/67 betting-units gives RoR ~5%

[/ QUOTE ]
RoR is NOT given by the simple formula "bets-diveded by-bettingunits"
what i ment was "check up the right column/row" at wizards RoR-table at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

[skierdude1000]

is there a likely range that I'll end up in.

i.e. between $150-$350

[Ken_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
is there a likely range that I'll end up in.

i.e. between $150-$350

[/ QUOTE ]

Your EV is about 87bucks... meaning you would end with a balance of 187.

This does not change with bet size.

Ken

[nivaman]

OmniCasino using optimal BJ strategy and single hand $3-bets

Probability of ending at...
$0 - $50 = 7%
$50 - $100 = 10%
$100 - $150 = 17%
$150 - $200 = 21%
above $200 = 45%

[sharp63]

Can you do this if you already do the Intercasino bonuses?

[nivaman]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you do this if you already do the Intercasino bonuses?

[/ QUOTE ]
yes...

[flight2q]

Increasing bet size increases EV slightly. No reason for OP to ask about risk of ruin unless bankroll is very short. OP should check out Golden Palace 100/300/8000, followed by Starluck&Planetluck 100/100/1600 for very low ROR. On each, blackjack is allowed, min bet is $1, and still only $100 deposit to claim max bonus. But I suspect that OP has already done these, and shouldn't be worrying about ROR.

[agent_fish]

[ QUOTE ]
Increasing bet size increases EV slightly. No reason for OP to ask about risk of ruin unless bankroll is very short. OP should check out Golden Palace 100/300/8000, followed by Starluck&Planetluck 100/100/1600 for very low ROR. On each, blackjack is allowed, min bet is $1, and still only $100 deposit to claim max bonus. But I suspect that OP has already done these, and shouldn't be worrying about ROR.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if busting at a given casino isn't a concern for you because your bankroll is large enough, is it better to make bigger bets? I tend to bet $5 a hand on larger (cashable) bonuses and $2-3 on the smaller (cashable) bonuses. Would larger bets be +EV?

[flight2q]

On a plot, the difference in the EV shouldn't be visible until you get the bets up to 5% or so of the beginning account value for a normal variance game like blackjack. If you have the stomach/bankroll, you can play cashables like stickies and wager 25% to 50% on your first bet.

[db9db9db9]

[ QUOTE ]
On a plot, the difference in the EV shouldn't be visible until you get the bets up to 5% or so of the beginning account value for a normal variance game like blackjack. If you have the stomach/bankroll, you can play cashables like stickies and wager 25% to 50% on your first bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in how EV changes when you increase bet size. You seem to know. How does betting $50 a hand change the EV of the Omni bonus, as opposed to betting the minimum $3? Or betting $25 a hand? Or $100 a hand?

[terrellk11]

Keep in mind that while increasing bets can be good, you should never bet enough blackjack that you can't take advantage of splitting, doubling or both. Losing the ability to take advangate of these options dramatically increases the HA.

For example, you get 88 against a dealer 6. If you've bet 100%, you have lost the ability to split your hand and take advantage of the situation. If you bet 50% and then split (putting 100% on the table already), you can't double your hands when you turn 88 into 82 and 83 against the dealer's 6.

[flight2q]

db9, you will get best results using a simulator. I don't know if there are any freeware ones available. But to get an idea of what is going on, look at the ROR table at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

(The rounding errors in the table for our area of interest are more significant than the fact that the table is for a game where dealer stands on all 17's - I'm guessing Omni hits soft 17.) Suppose you wanted to flat bet $25 on a 100/100/2500. You plan to wager 100 times and are starting with 200/25 = 8 unit. In the top table on that page, in the column marked 100 (2500/25), you see ROR entries of 50%,7 and 40%,9. The starting bankroll is 8, so estimate the ROR at 45%.

Now estimate that each time you bust you do not need to meet half the WR. This is a conservative estimate. (In the top left corner of that table, we actually get to renege on more than that on average. The only situations where we bust and on average have already wagered over half the WR are situations with very small ROR, or where the play through is tiny.)

Uhm, there are some rules for blackjack at Omni, whatever they are, let's say the HA is 5/8 of a percent. Then if you could bet by the penny (and guarantee completing the bonus), your bonus EV would be 100 - 2500*(5/8/100) = 84.38. With a $25 flat betting plan your EV will be about 100 - 2500*(5/8/100) + 45%*2500/2*(5/8/100) = 87.89. With a $5 flat betting plan, EV about 100 - 2500*(5/8/100) + 14%*2500/2*(5/8/100) = 85.47 (find the relevant entry in the table!). The Wizard's table doesn't provide columns with less than 100 units WR, but if that is the case then the bonus is just plain good unless all games have high HA.

There are a few of things going on here. We are not seeing tons of difference in this 100/100/2500 case, because the WR is such that you will EV over 84% of the bonus anyway. If your EV penny-betting were low, then you'd have the opportunity to save much more. This 16% potential recoup depends on the WR and the HA - play Pontoon and you'll be expecting to make over 95% of the bonus even with tiny bets, and there is more need in Pontoon to reserve bets for splitting/doubling anyway. There are various other factors affecting the results, but overall I have been more generous to betting small than to betting large. For starting account balances of only a few bets, rather more computation is needed; you can calculate the possible results of the first few bets, and then peel off any results that lead you to an entry in the URL's table, and set a recurrence to approximate the rest. (Don't worry about it; just expect the EV to keep increasing as you get more aggressive.) For the particular issue of games with splitting/doubling, of course you step down your betting level with a low site roll, or run temporarily to a game with not as low HA but no splitting/doubling, and place one big bet. In general, if you ran up your account, but then saw a downswing and have a low balance again, you should treat the situation just the same as at the beginning - there is some current account balance, and some remaining WR; this dictates what you want to do.

For a $100 bonus, all this assumes you enjoy the game of spending time to max your results.