running into sets, theory question

[alphatmw]

assuming...
small stakes NL
no reads on the opponent
hero raises PF and holds TPK, overpair, or 2 pair on the flop. the weakest hand hero will have is AQ flopping a queen.
villian is the only caller and flops a set
hero is out of position
board never becomes threatening

both stacks are exact 1 buy in

how much, on average, should hero, being a good player, lose on this hand?

[bent96]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming...
small stakes NL
no reads on the opponent
hero raises PF and holds TPK, overpair, or 2 pair on the flop. the weakest hand hero will have is AQ flopping a queen.
villian is the only caller and flops a set
hero is out of position
board never becomes threatening

both stacks are exact 1 buy in

how much, on average, should hero, being a good player, lose on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Al, I think we both know this question has far, far too many factors for it to be answerable. Exact limit, player stats, dynamics, images, specific reads, etc. Fill in some of the blanks and maybe we can answer this question.

P.S- It sounds like you are just running bad. Don't worry about. Just be prepared to get away from tptk.

YOU SHOULD LOSE YOUR WHOLE STACK, DUH

[fopah]

[ QUOTE ]
YOU SHOULD LOSE YOUR WHOLE STACK, DUH

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what i do

[younghov17]

wow grimstarr posted in ssnl? grimm are u drunk?

[alphatmw]

[ QUOTE ]

Al, I think we both know this question has far, far too many factors for it to be answerable. Exact limit, player stats, dynamics, images, specific reads, etc. Fill in some of the blanks and maybe we can answer this question.

P.S- It sounds like you are just running bad. Don't worry about. Just be prepared to get away from tptk.

[/ QUOTE ] ok... try this then?

first hand, 50NL, you raise AsKc to $2 3 off the button. the button who holds 99 calls, blinds fold. button is a player between 25-35 VPIP, between 4-9 PFR, between 1-2 AF. he has exactly $50 as well.

run this scenario with 100 players who fit this catergory, making the flop A96 rainbow everytime.

on average (the variance coming from the slightly different styles of play from the button), how much would you lose?

or, if its simpler, how many times out of the 100 would you get stacked in this scenario?

what if the flop was A96 two hearts?

what if the flop was AQT rainbow?

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
YOU SHOULD LOSE YOUR WHOLE STACK, DUH

[/ QUOTE ]


Joke or for real ? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[alphatmw]

edit: in my post above, last line should say "AQ9 rainbow"

[dardo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
YOU SHOULD LOSE YOUR WHOLE STACK, DUH

[/ QUOTE ]


Joke or for real ? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

For Grim is real. It is heavily dependant on your table image. If you have a tight table image no way you can lose your whole stack except some weird action/things has been happening lately.

regards,

dardo

[alphatmw]

what?? what does table image have to do with you going broke?

[dardo]

If you have a crazy table image opponents can call you down or bet into you with very crappy holdings. There TPTK is the nuts.

But beware that this is not easy thing, some players won't make big bets without huge hands no matter what you do.

[JoaoPinto]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming...
small stakes NL
no reads on the opponent
hero raises PF and holds TPK, overpair, or 2 pair on the flop. the weakest hand hero will have is AQ flopping a queen.
villian is the only caller and flops a set
hero is out of position
board never becomes threatening

both stacks are exact 1 buy in

how much, on average, should hero, being a good player, lose on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the player. A standard player will check call you on the flop and check raise the turn. At which point it's only worth continuing if your pot odds are good.

Against a tricky clever player.......who knows. If you seem like a guy who will pay off with TPTK these guys will start constantly calling your pre flop raises with all sorts of hands. One thing to think about is maybe loosening up your pre flop selection. Nothing makes laying down TPTK easier than remembering all the times your stacked someone holding it with a set or a junk straight.

[kokiri]

in position, your industry standard is something along the lines of raise pf (4BB) pot flop (8BB), check behind turn, call river (up to 24BB) [assuming that villain goes for c/c, c/c raise, which is fairly common] which leads to you losing 36bb or 9 times the PF call villain made.

OOP is tougher.

You want villain calling small PP to your raise to be a losing proposition for him, which means you need to look across the range of your possible holdings - i.e. although this is a profitable situiation for him, it's ok as he wont make much when you raise and miss, or are raising trash.

Rather than lookk at how much the lines are going to cost you, I would look at it this way - how much can I afford to lose without making the PF call profitable for the villain?

On the other hand, if villain is prepared to call with loads of other crap, you make enough from that that you can even afford for him to show a net profit from calling small PPs.

In summary, a fairly rambling way of saying i don't know, 50BB probably fine, I am half convinced that going to the felt with 100BB TPTK is likely to be +EV at $25, $50 NL

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
in position, your industry standard is something along the lines of raise pf (4BB) pot flop (8BB), check behind turn, call river (up to 24BB) [assuming that villain goes for c/c, c/c raise, which is fairly common] which leads to you losing 36bb or 9 times the PF call villain made.

[/ QUOTE ]

You play all your TPTK type hands the same way in position? That's crazy. So I can get a free card every single time i have a draw against you OOP (and still get paid off when I hit on the river by your top pair)?

[kokiri]

no of course not - in fact this is in answer to his question A9x rainbow so no draws on the flop anyway

No-one's saying you play the same way every time, but this is a pretty standard middle of the road line (given a dry board), no?- obviously reads, opposition etc etc etc blah blah blah don't get too excited

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
how much, on average, should hero, being a good player, lose on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
See this thread, especially this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=plnlpoker&Number=6246 181&Searchpage=1&Main=6230818&Words=+Zag&topic=&Se arch=true#Post6246181).

IMO, Zag is one of the best posters on these boards, except for the part about him going months without posting anything. Differing table images notwithstanding, he has some interesting ideas about what a given hand should be worth, assuming 100BB stacks. You may want to search for some of his older stuff, he's mentioned this concept before.

[vabogee]

[ QUOTE ]
no of course not - in fact this is in answer to his question A9x rainbow so no draws on the flop anyway

No-one's saying you play the same way every time, but this is a pretty standard middle of the road line (given a dry board), no?- obviously reads, opposition etc etc etc blah blah blah don't get too excited

[/ QUOTE ]

you used the phrase "industry standard", and the rest of your post suggested that you were recommending developing standard lines for certain types of hands. i think that's a mistake. that's all.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in position, your industry standard is something along the lines of raise pf (4BB) pot flop (8BB), check behind turn, call river (up to 24BB) [assuming that villain goes for c/c, c/c raise, which is fairly common] which leads to you losing 36bb or 9 times the PF call villain made.

[/ QUOTE ]

You play all your TPTK type hands the same way in position? That's crazy. So I can get a free card every single time i have a draw against you OOP (and still get paid off when I hit on the river by your top pair)?

[/ QUOTE ]

On dry boards this a fairly common line, on drawheavy boards things are different.

[Dan Bitel]

Read this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=627716 2&Searchpage=1&Main=6277162&Words=rant+dbitel&topi c=&Search=true#Post6277162)

its fine to lose your buy in. And I always will on the A9xr flop, just b/c villains will also go broke with AQ/AJ/AT etc, so I'm miles ahead of villains range

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Read this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=627716 2&Searchpage=1&Main=6277162&Words=rant+dbitel&topi c=&Search=true#Post6277162)

its fine to lose your buy in. And I always will on the A9xr flop, just b/c villains will also go broke with AQ/AJ/AT etc, so I'm miles ahead of villains range

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

[tkkjsoup]

[ QUOTE ]
what?? what does table image have to do with you going broke?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite a bit. We are more likely to get it in with TPTK or TTP if our table image is such that villain thinks we're FOS or if villain thinks we're weak tight.