wagon30
07-03-2006, 07:34 AM
Mr. Kagan's results are largely based on the hand ranges he chose. I'm going to focus on the medium range, because it is most pertinent to where the authors of Kill Phil divide pushing with ace rag and pushing with suited connectors. Let's look at two kill phil pushing ranges, I'll call medium and loose. Medium consists of 19.2% of hands including suited connectors and not including off suit ace hands below A7o. Loose consists of 34.5% of hands and includes all ace rag hands.
KQs has 46.645% pot equity against the first range and 52.122% pot equity against the second range. Against both KP ranges ATo, A9s and A9o have more equity that KQs. Against the loose range 55 also has more equity than KQs. If you add these hands, the results versus a medium stack change.
vs. A9+, 66+, KQs
76s equity is 33.761%
A5o equity is 29.875%
76s has 13% more equity with this range, much more that the 7.7% equity that the author estimates.
vs. A9+, KQs, 55+
76s equity is 34.442%
A5o equity is 29.945%
76s has 15% more equity than A5o.
Why is my range better? Because my range performs better against KP strategies than the author's. The only reason the author gets the results he does is that his fictional calling range happens to overvalue KQs and undervalue ATo, A9o and A9s.
The same pattern is true for the tight range. Add the next two hands AQo and AQs and 76s has 31.637% equity vs. A5o's
27.351%. Add 99 and AJ and it breaks down 32.419% vs. 27.837% (AJ is slightly better than 88 against the KP range). Those are 15.6% and 16.5% increases for 76s over A5o. When the author says, "If your opponents are very tight, there is little difference between the four hands evaluated" he is way off base. When you get all in with 76s rather than A5o against these ranges the difference is nearly a tenth of your stack!!!
The point that the author's in KP, so enthusiastically make is that in formulating a push-fold strategy for late in tournaments suited connectors should be added to your range before ace rag hands even though ace rag hands are much better hot and cold against a random hand. This is counter-intuitive to many new players. By the time ace rag should be added to your range, it is usually correct to be pushing suited connectors also.
There are many situations now especially with the rise of sit n gos, where ace rag becomes a power house. Anyone who plays a push fold strategy near the end of sit n go's knows they are elated when they see an ace and meh when they see a suited connector. But in a full table at a multi-table tournament, calling criteria is often constrained by the chance that someone behind the caller will pick up a good hand and reraise. The BB's calling criteria is often constrained by people already in the hand. Also, the authors of KP and many other authors urge their readers not to wait until they have an insignificant stack to push pre-flop. so the calling criteria may be further constrained by pot odds. Someone moving in with a 4000 chip stack from the button with the blinds 100-200 following the KP advice isn't giving someone odds to call with KQs even with their loose 20% range.
KQs has 46.645% pot equity against the first range and 52.122% pot equity against the second range. Against both KP ranges ATo, A9s and A9o have more equity that KQs. Against the loose range 55 also has more equity than KQs. If you add these hands, the results versus a medium stack change.
vs. A9+, 66+, KQs
76s equity is 33.761%
A5o equity is 29.875%
76s has 13% more equity with this range, much more that the 7.7% equity that the author estimates.
vs. A9+, KQs, 55+
76s equity is 34.442%
A5o equity is 29.945%
76s has 15% more equity than A5o.
Why is my range better? Because my range performs better against KP strategies than the author's. The only reason the author gets the results he does is that his fictional calling range happens to overvalue KQs and undervalue ATo, A9o and A9s.
The same pattern is true for the tight range. Add the next two hands AQo and AQs and 76s has 31.637% equity vs. A5o's
27.351%. Add 99 and AJ and it breaks down 32.419% vs. 27.837% (AJ is slightly better than 88 against the KP range). Those are 15.6% and 16.5% increases for 76s over A5o. When the author says, "If your opponents are very tight, there is little difference between the four hands evaluated" he is way off base. When you get all in with 76s rather than A5o against these ranges the difference is nearly a tenth of your stack!!!
The point that the author's in KP, so enthusiastically make is that in formulating a push-fold strategy for late in tournaments suited connectors should be added to your range before ace rag hands even though ace rag hands are much better hot and cold against a random hand. This is counter-intuitive to many new players. By the time ace rag should be added to your range, it is usually correct to be pushing suited connectors also.
There are many situations now especially with the rise of sit n gos, where ace rag becomes a power house. Anyone who plays a push fold strategy near the end of sit n go's knows they are elated when they see an ace and meh when they see a suited connector. But in a full table at a multi-table tournament, calling criteria is often constrained by the chance that someone behind the caller will pick up a good hand and reraise. The BB's calling criteria is often constrained by people already in the hand. Also, the authors of KP and many other authors urge their readers not to wait until they have an insignificant stack to push pre-flop. so the calling criteria may be further constrained by pot odds. Someone moving in with a 4000 chip stack from the button with the blinds 100-200 following the KP advice isn't giving someone odds to call with KQs even with their loose 20% range.